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Politics

Please can someone explain? Will we pay if we leave EU without a deal?

580 replies

HappydaysArehere · 17/10/2017 19:53

With all this talk of billions of pounds which we are supposed to owe if we leave and talk of continuing to pay after we leave, I am in the dark. If we walk away with no deal will we pay anything like the amounts talked about? If we are able to do that surely the EU will be big losers as well as us! I am at a loss. Grateful for your input as I am bewildered. I voted to remain but must say the shenanigans being played by the EU are showing them as more like the Mafia than a democratic institution.

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mummmy2017 · 16/11/2017 19:47

Melassa, we didn't have Courgettes, they can be grown in the UK, but right now it's not worth the farmers time, if prices go up, the farmers will grow them, and if it's not that time of the year, ok it becomes a luxury item, sorry but no one died in the war when some foods were hard to come by, we just ate what was seasonal, and that's not such a bad thing, it's just in these times of wanting instant gratification, we feel entitled to what ever we fancy and have lost a sense of waiting for the season to change.

OliviaD68 · 16/11/2017 19:47

@Melassa

Not sure facts matter. Hope is driving this. Reaction is emotive not structured by logic or analysis.

Melassa · 16/11/2017 19:47

International commerce is not like selling glittery shite on FB.

OliviaD68 · 16/11/2017 19:45

Not trouble. your

OliviaD68 · 16/11/2017 19:45

@mummmy2017

Grimsby was 70% Leave. You can have trouble own opinions but not your own facts.

And you are telling the fishermen what’s best for their trade?

But if I can sum up your argument: “everything will be fine. I don’t know how but I know it will”?

mummmy2017 · 16/11/2017 19:41

Grimsby was a remainer, like you, wanting a special deal , like you.

Of course the media will lap up any think like this, we import so much because we aren't allowed to fish our own seas. This will change and we will fish our own seas and eat uk caught fish, oh look a new marketing opportunity, or are you now saying the amount of fish we catch won't rise.

Melassa · 16/11/2017 19:39

Mummy it's not Olivia's opinions, it's real life I'm afraid. And lol at the EU 27 revolting. Remember the courgette shortage in the UK this summer? Part of that was producers preferring to sell the crop to their domestic market or their neighbours in € rather than to the UK supermarkets in the much diminished £ at the ridiculously low pricing UK supermarkets demand.

mummmy2017 · 16/11/2017 19:33

OLIVA get real...

We won't buy if we know it's not going to get delivered, so the food can rot, we can arrange frozen from other places, as to the EU not selling to us. ha ha, wetting myself laughing at the 27 sticking to that one.

Your personal views to justify your hopes , may make sense to you to the world of commerce doesn't work like that, if people see a gap in the market they plug it.

We have a whole growing season plus for farmers to gear up, and they are making big plans to CASH in on this market.

Do you really think they won't stock up on non perishable goods, and that the supplies won't be willing to help them. Running a business as I do, I really do know about supply and demand... maybe you should read up on that, and not just the bullet points, you so like to use.

OliviaD68 · 16/11/2017 19:29

@mummmy2017

And I get you believe food import from non-EU third countries can just sail through without a Border Inspection Post having a 'little look' at some SPS certificates and testing?

I would love to live in Brexit Unicorn Land. But I don't. Please send me directions though.

OliviaD68 · 16/11/2017 19:27

@mummmy2017

So I suppose you're going to tell the fishermen of Grimsby that they are wrong about customs clearance?

GRIMSBY

Melassa · 16/11/2017 19:26

Yes, sorry, I do of course know that (or I should, with my job! Grin).

For food I think it depends on what type of foodstuffs, but in any case on the odd occasion I have had to deal with customs clearance (non food) the goods have to be paid for even if the seller is organising the DDP and the goods get stuck in customs. The only exception to that would be a customs seizure due to flagrant misrepresentation of the goods on the seller's part, but even then if the seller is asked to do so by the buyer it will often be written in that the buyer pays in any case, or payment will be in advance with eventual fines/tariffs being covered by the buyer.

OliviaD68 · 16/11/2017 19:22

@mummmy2017

I think you should go out into the real world and experience how things are done. The UK is a great country.

But if it's harder to sell to us than a neighbour then that is what EU producers will do.

Or ... Tesco and Sainsbury's are just going to have to get very very good at managing customs clearance. So Grimsby has said they don't want to pay for that. I don't.

Are you going to pay then?

OliviaD68 · 16/11/2017 19:19

@mummmy2017

You're way out of your depth here sorry. Most are not under DDP. List below of the four most commonly used INCOTERMS.

Yes, actually, I do think if commerce is too hard, countries will stop selling certain things to us from the EU. You see our market is 65 m people and theirs is 450m. It's much easier for a producer to open an SM/CU market than one with painful SPS certification.

FOB (Free On Board )

This means that the goods remain in the possession of the seller. The seller is responsible to bear all costs until the goods are loaded to the ship on the port of the seller. Once the goods are loaded on to the ship, the sellers is no more responsible for any costs and liability of charges. The ownership of the goods at this stages transfers from the seller to the consignee. If you are importing from China, this is the most common type of contract generally accepted by the suppliers i.e. exporters or sellers.

EXW (Ex Works)

EXW means Ex works. The seller makes the goods available at their place of work such as factory or warehouse. It is the buyer responsibility to arrange for the transportation of the goods from the seller’s place to the port and then onward shipment.

CFR ( Cost and Freight)

This means that the seller is responsible for transporting the goods until the destination port. The seller bears all the charges of shipment until the goods arrive at the importer’s port. However, the seller is not responsible for any loss or damage, which occurs in transit.

CIF (Cost, Insurance and Freight)

This is similar to CFR. The difference is that the seller agrees to purchase insurance to cover for any loss or damage during transit.

mummmy2017 · 16/11/2017 19:17

More back slapping, from Oliva, we can get fresh food from places other than the EU, your so into the small details to try to prove points you can't see that there could be ways round it, till the 27 revolt... and the EU decide maybe they do need to do something, after all your really thing we will NEVER trade with the EU after Brexit...

mummmy2017 · 16/11/2017 19:14

Guess wrong, in trade and do understand it,,, more than you do.

Most people are paid to Deliver the goods to the Door of the warehouse, they will know there will be delays and it is upto them to sort this, logistics, it's not blind faith it business, your incredible naive if you think people will stop selling to the UK, I mean just how are they going to find markets to sell these goods, and if the markets are there to take up this MASS amount of goods, why are they not being traded with right now.

OliviaD68 · 16/11/2017 19:10

@Melassa

Good point.But not what I meant.

You can sell goods anywhere from ExWorks where the buyer assumes responsibility, freight, insurance at the seller's gates out to Delivered Duty Paid where the Seller takes over the delivery, clearance, insurance, duty payment process. Then there is stuff in between like FOB.

I don't know how food is sold, but I can't imagine many EU food producers wanting to take on clearance risk in Dover ...

40% of the UK's food is imported ...

Melassa · 16/11/2017 19:09

Olivia, yes, I am being facetious and over simplifying, but having had similar conversations recently I have lapsed to primary teacher on steroids mode.

Melassa · 16/11/2017 19:03

Yes Olivia, I neglected that it might be the UK the country of origin not receiving payment. I had assumed Mummy was thinking more of a foreign supplier who should be grateful to supply Almighty Albion time and time again without seeing a penny. The concept would of course be equally valid for shortbread going mouldy at Dover.

OliviaD68 · 16/11/2017 18:54

@Melassa

Or the buyer will not buy again. Depends on who is responsible for what at what stage of the sales process - called INCOTERMS.

INCOTERMS

Trade is complex. My guess is @mummmy2017 doesn't like all this detail and believes everything will just be fine?

Melassa · 16/11/2017 18:47

Food rotting, oh yes, so the Country of origin doesn't get paid, as food never arrived.... are you sure they won't mind growing and not getting paid...

Which will then be the last time anyone sells anything to the UK. Have you ever worked in a commercial context? Tried to buy/sell products in bulk at the best conditions. People are not going to want to sell to someone who lets produce rot due to their own inefficiencies then reneges on payment. Why bother when there are others who will actually pay?

AgnesSkinner · 16/11/2017 18:40

The Chicago Convention is way more restrictive than what we enjoy now.

I like the way you think Spain would cave to pressure - nothing like a bit of hope over expectation when it comes to Brexit.

mummmy2017 · 16/11/2017 18:30

There is an older agreement we can use, so we can still fly, it says so in your link
Spain, will object, and lose out, and be made to back down by 26 other countries.
It's not just a case of us wanting to fly, is it, other countries need to have our planes land, so do your really think this won't get sorted even if it's a botch job till other bits can be agreed...

AgnesSkinner · 16/11/2017 18:26

mummmy did you read the link properly? Spain will object to the UK rejoining the ECAA and the Brexiteers are unlikely to accept it anyway as it falls under the jurisdiction of the ECJ.

It’s really not at all straightforward to try and replicate using individual bilateral agreements.

OliviaD68 · 16/11/2017 18:22

@mummmy2017

Let me just say it this way.

There's a shit ton to do and it ain't gettin done. If it ain't gettin done, Brexit ain't gettin done.

OliviaD68 · 16/11/2017 18:21

@AgnesSkinner

Thanks. Learned a lot from this post.

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