Please can someone explain? Will we pay if we leave EU without a deal?

So come March 2019, your deluded lot are still going to be pointing out THINGS, call me names I really don't care, your efforts to Educate me to your point of view, nah... so what. Recall your Article 50. that NEVER happened, and still you will moan and complain and shout the odds about how stupid you feel we were to vote out.

Just what will the slap in the face that wakes you up to what is happening... shakes head at you numpties.

@CardinalSin

What makes you say that? Let’s see. Could it be:

• that NI can have a soft border with the UK outside the CU

• that bankers can have status akin to diplomats?

• that an FTA with the EU affords SM/CU equivalence?

• that anything but a framework was ever intended to be agreed before March 2019?

• that the EU cannot negotiate with a member state thus that trade or other negotiations can only ever take place AFTER we’ve left?

• that the next phase of discussions are NOT about a trade agreement but the overall framework for departure?

• that leaving the SM/CU necessarily means the best we can hope for is a Canada style DCFTA that will take ten years?

• that we MUST fall under ECJ jurisdiction during any post A50 transition period?

Can’t be that. Must be something else.

I wonder if it has dropped yet. He doesn't seem to be entirely aware of what he's supposed to be doing...

@CardinalSin and all. I thought I’d bring some levity into the thread with a David Davis special. Now I know this was early on ... But still?

Somehow you have to wonder: why would it be that Germany France Poland and Italy could negotiate their own trade deals directly but the UK could not.

I wonder when the penny dropped.

...or in this case, a lobotomy...

To stretch the metaphor, the patient is refusing to accept the antidote, having read many "holistic" websites and reports that they can be cured by leeches or some such...

As a Doctor, your pretending there is a cure rather than accepting it's something that will happen.... strange as in my book that makes you the fool not me.
Very interesting image of Brexit as an illness that can’t be cured and remainers as doctors trying to find a cure....

I’m wondering why the illness can’t be cured seeing that we have an antidote - just stopping the A50.

Another really good 'layperson' read on how we make decisions, and the in-built biases that influence them, is 'blink' by Malcolm Gladwell.

@Jeanvaljean27

Thanks for these references. Good Christmas reading.

Olivia

Yes, I've read kahneman - very worthwhile. There's plenty of very clever cognitive science work since the 60s actively demonstrating the mishmash of confirmation/cognitive bias and logical fallacy that underpins the decision making of your average human being.

Take a look at the asch conformity experiments, the Stanford capital punishment experiment, dunning/Kruger's work, Van Yperen/buunk's work on 'illusory superiority'.

It's only recently we've actually started quantifying it via trial data - actual observation of these phenomena goes back to Greece and Rome. Plato spent a great amount of time decrying the evils of democracy where sophists and demagogos would gather in the main square to whip the mob into a frenzy and make them do what they wanted. I imagine Plato would smile wryly and recognise a common caricature of his if he observed redwood, Rees-mogg or Jenkins in action today. Juvenal dedicates large chunks of his satires explaining how to manipulate the mob and use its lack of self-awareness against it, as did Thucydides. Spengler, Ortega y gasset, Mencken, plenty of others have written vast tracts on it.

Bottom line here is, someone like mummmy2017 or the countless other numpties posting incoherent ill-spelt rubbish masquerading as arguments in favour of brexit don't know what they don't know; it's therefore largely worthless even trying to have a rational debate where you try and fill in the gaps in their knowledge with referenced links. All it leads to is frustration. Which is why I never tend to engage.

And I feel that people who THINK they know everything, and refuse to move postions, even when the world is changing in a very fast way around them, are stupid... as in have a brain and won't use it.

Yes we all have worries about Brexit, however I have accepted we are leaving, that yes there will be winners and losers, that as I don't work in any govenment department there is no point in worrying , as all it will do is make me ill.

As a Doctor, your pretending there is a cure rather than accepting it's something that will happen.... strange as in my book that makes you the fool not me.

@Jeanvaljean27

You are right. Yes I know. Even with people that are usually intelligent ...

If you have not already, you should read Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.

It's all about human decision making.

We reach a conclusion as a first step and justify it after. We are typically lazy thinkers and soliciting the analytical part of the brain is painful and consumes energy so we revert to the instinctive part as much as we can. System 1 vs System 2 he calls it. A great read.

olivia

Listen, I'm a doctor. Everything I do since I left medical school, every decision I've made in my career, has to be backed by iron-clad evidence. Rarely the evidence is either scanty or anecdotal, but you caveat that into your decision making. For every other decision, I need to document why I've done x rather than y and be able to justify my decision making under professional scrutiny through pointing out an evidence base, whether that be in a morbidity & mortality meeting or to a coroner.

Do my patients care? The hell they do. They ask 'why x?' So I sit down, gird my loins, and start gently and in as much idiot-proof language as I can muster to explain what the evidence base is, how the trials worked, what the conclusions were, how that has led to various guidelines being laid down on managing their condition.

Before 5 seconds are out, the eyes glaze over - they've lost interest. It's pointless. They don't respond to, nor are they interested in he evidence base. They respond to anecdote, emotion, personal experience, what they perceive to be empathy.

And trying to reason with people who have what we in our profession term 'fixed ideas' is well-nigh impossible. You won't win by pointing out an evidence base, because their point of view isn't rational - it's based on emotion rather than reason. They're two entirely different paradigms. It's a fruitless pursuit.

Oops, wrong thread!

It's OK Faith, really. It's just that you seem to have trouble understanding things.

Ah, self-hobbling. That's nearly as good as the Black Death one...

@Jeanvaljean27

Doubling down on stupid. Had not heard that before.It's appropriate.

Don't forget your head in the sand about that we ARE leaving

Well @Jeanvaljean27 you make a good point.

I think it's four things:

1. In part it is seeing if I have missed something. I don't think I have but I don't want to conclude then backfill with justifications of my own beliefs. I think I'm getting close to finished looking for the Holy Grail.

2. It is also testing my my own knowledge and arguments to make sure the evidence backs up my beliefs.

3. Learning new things. There are viewpoints on here I had not thought of and aspects which are new to me.

For example, I had always rejected the notion that we would regain sovereignty when leaving. I never thought we had lost it in the first place; this forced me to get the answer.

4. Perhaps naively: change a mind or two.

At some point, I'll get bored or pissed off and just stop.

Don't know if this makes sense. But thanks for stopping me to think about it.

Explain, not giving answers..
They are different things,,,

I've been reading this thread with mounting amusement.

Olivia, what do you hope to achieve? You've spent 22 pages posting evidence, explaining the complexities of frictionless trade, the single market, customs unions, tariffs, how to calculate liabilities in our EU transactions, the principles behind the production and movement of goods across borders, the technicalities behind an open skies agreement.

I doubt even 1% of what you've posted has been read let alone understood by the illiterate idiots you've been debating with. What's difficult to understand? They made a choice that they're convinced it the right one having tossed a coin and talked to a few mates of theirs and read their favourite columnist on the subject in the daily mail and seen the logo on the side of the bus; who are you to tell them any different, with your fancy graphs and linked papers?

I believe the Americans call it 'doubling down on stupid'. Or as the greatest American sage of them all (Mencken) called it, ''democracy is the theory that common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard'.

@AgnesSkinner

Yeah I cut off healthy limbs all the time...

Or maybe she means Monty Python?

So - self-hobbling?

Yet another metaphor that doesn’t mean quite what you hoped it would.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/matthew-ellery/leave-lies-remainers-need_b_12191462.html

Melassa why don't you understand , we are willing to cut off a foot to stop the pain long term.