German election results...

She's probably toast.

Though I suspect we'll find out as soon as Monday.

The CDU are lining up a new leader though their choice is an interesting one.

To explain this just imagine being a German car manufacturer seeing that photo from the G7.. Would you be thinking anything other than we need a new leader?

Germany cannot afford to not get along with Trump at the moment. Whether that colours their choice....

If not it tells us that they really don't understand what is going on! :)

Well the FDP held firm on their mild euroscepticism Caroline, and as you graciously reminded me I lost out on a 100,000 to 1 shot.

:)

"But will this speed up exposing the ridiculous state of affairs? Are all those big boys really sitting there, in their home nations saying, we cant do anything till Angelas back? "

Pretty much yes. The imbalances in the eurozone, which in the main favour Germany, mean that the EU can't really reorganise it's finances till they know what Germany's policy is going to be. Which is impossible to know till there is a German government.

Which is a bit of an issue with Greece needing another bailout.

Well the FDP finally walked out somewhere a bit before midnight so we can probably rule them out now.

Which leaves minority government or fresh elections.

Even minority government isn't as easy as it seems, the Greens would have to put any agreement ( for which formal negotiations haven't even begun) to a conference vote.

There's no guarantee that they wouldn't up their demands, and why shouldn't they?

Hence the EU can't do diddly squat until Germany actually has a government. Seems our own haven't even realised that the EU have been playing for time as trade talks couldn't realistically begin before they knew the German policy. Which is now still some way off.

Which might now not be known until fresh elections in late January, followed by months of haggling, etc etc. Or until the Greens can get their acts together.

Which does raise the interesting question of what would happen if an agreement under article 50 were reached but that some European country couldn't form a government to ratify it. Has to be unanimous under the letter of the law...

Classic example of zugzwang for Merkel..

Talks on the current coalition have to be formalised by 6pm Sunday ( well Friday if you accept the previous deadline).

The Green's still want to piddle in her cornflakes some more and the FDP want limits on immigration.

Trouble is she can't go back to the country as her own ratings and polling have dropped sharply. Partly as a result of said cornflake piddling.

Also fresh elections tend to produce results further from the centre, which wouldn't help her.

If these fall through then she can either break Shultz's arm to form another grand coalition ( and leave the AfD as the opposition) or form a minority government with the greens. Possibly they might demand even more piddling though.

Frankly executive political power is in crisis across the Western realms. The attitudes of the great unwashed are not represented and that damned democracy whatnot is getting in their ways.

She is, though in an odd way. The Greens have compromised it seems, no longer looking to piddle in her cornflakes over the power plants.

Hence one presumes it is the FDP holding their line.

Either way it's been a long time since the elections and I doubt any of them are going to relish new ones.

In relative power terms one thing that many forget is that weak governments suit the EU rather nicely. Eurosceptics should beware of considering your enemies enemy to be your friend.

With barely a strong government to show amongst the major economies Junker and co are quite happy.

Odd to see Macron's power seeping away at the same time as Merkel's? One might think they were joined at the hip. :)

It seems that Frau Merkel is really struggling to hold it all together, never mind actually negotiate a government coalition. Her grumpy Bavarians are close to breaking ranks.

Seems likely that fresh elections will be needed according to some.

More likely I think, given the precarious situation, is the loud threat of new elections needed to boot the Jamaicans into line.

Hence the inflexion point Caroline. Will the FDP's very mild euroscepticism survive the threat of calamity should the AfD pick up a couple more percentage points in fresh elections? Also the Green energy plan to piddle in her cornflakes?

While the cat's been away drunken Juncker has been at play. So too, allegedly, has the Saudi crown prince. Busy slaughtering his kith and kin, likely meaning the succession is nigh.

Which to me signals oil prices about to soar, though I often get my market predictions woefully wrong! :)

If so the eurozone needs to fasten it's seatbelts.

Well the Type 31 will have no capability against submarines, the primary threat to carriers. Also only barebones self protection against an air threat which is less of an issue in a carrier task group.

Carriers though need as much wind over the deck as possible to launch aircraft, which also helps with landing them. Hence faces into the wind and runs at high speed. To escort a carrier your frigate therefore needs to be considerably faster than the carrier, especially on anti submarine duty where they sprint and then drift silently.

The top speed of the T31 requirement is 24 knots, which isn't even close to fast enough to escort carriers.

"Mainly though because the civil service hasn't actually done anything to prepare for brexit."

Bad form quoting yourself but I found some concrete evidence for this.

Government procurement is the one area that very accurately reflects their view of the future. The longer term the buy the better a predictor it is.

Hence with the Royal Navy in dire straights due to Cameron's defence cuts and very few frigates which are often older than their crews the recently announced Type 31 program is... interesting.

I've heard plenty about the year of the Royal Navy. "due to our rising defence budget of £178 billion over the next ten years" etc. Also about how we are going to reintegrate with the rest of the world and operate globally.... How our two new aircraft carriers will blah blah blah.

And yet the T31 has a hard budget ceiling of £250 million. No western nation has built warships for that amount, very rarely for twice that amount. It might sound like a lot, and a lot of defence figures are designed to confuse. For something that will be in service for 30 years that's a tadge more than £8m a year. Add in £10m a year for running costs etc. Which is roughly the equivalent of building and running a new school or so.

Come to think of it a school isn't a bad analogy given the number of engineers being trained on board.

If the government and civil service were planning on a global Britain then why would they be ordering budget basement warships which aren't even capable of operating alongside the carriers?

Anyone who still thinks we are going to get our fishing waters back might wonder why they're decommissioning three perfectly serviceable patrol vessels from the fisheries protection squadron 10 years early. They leased them until a few years ago when they bought them outright. These aren't warships per se, they count fish basically and cost all of £10m a year to run 4 of them.

If the MoD can't find £10m in £36Bn or replace our small frigate fleet on a one to one basis then what does that tell you?

Hmmm...

Somewhat sneery and misses the turning point in the German public perception.

It wasn't even the mass rapes or the delayed reporting of them, though they were shocking. The various terrorist attacks committed here on the other hand really shocked the Germans.

The reason being that they viewed France as having problems due to the way the rather generous social security worked. The French pretty much accept that x% of people are going to be unemployed.

They viewed us as a successful interpretation of multiculturalism but thought they could improve upon it. There's some subtleties of language here, basically around the term engineering. The Germans believe themselves to be good engineers, and therefore will be good social engineers. Sound too simplistic? Yeah can't blame you, didn't really believe it myself. The only real substance behind this belief was that the German economy could provide immigrants with jobs. Make them welcome, make sure they have jobs and everything else will be ok.

Hence when young and often well educated people started blowing themselves and others up, going on knife and vehicle borne sprees the German's naivety and faith in immigration was rather forcefully burst. Doubts crept in and the AfD profited.

Yes a completely free rein.

Partly because there is no-one to rein them in. Partly because the EU never wastes a good crisis and the emphasis is purely on showing strength, discussions of how much damage this could do them long term are pointless. They'll pay any price, as it isn't actually them paying it.

Mainly though because the civil service hasn't actually done anything to prepare for brexit. And the EU know this. I've had mixed reports as to whether they've really tried, but bear in mind that Hammond is in the treasury so effectively controls things. If the civil service were actually preparing to leave in 2019 they'd be taking on more staff to manage their newly reacquired responsibilities. But they aren't and no end date has been set. It could be they've requested more resources and been rebuffed by the treasury. I'd think it more likely that department by department they've just decided that brexit would almost certainly embarrass them.

Hence the absurdity of various EU inclined personalities calling for a single European Army, and the UK prime minister saying that she supports their aims and objectives. The slings and arrows I received on the EU army thread during the referendum seem somewhat bittersweet now.

"Its absolutely the wrong time to be floating proposals for more power to the EU, when EU citizens, pretty much across the union, are demanding less"

It's the perfect time to show or bluster strength when everyone else is weak, they don't need a democratic mandate as they aren't democratic. :)

You and I might think they're playing with fire however it is the national governments who reap the consequences, not the EU in it's many guises and forms. In short they're insulated from it and don't really care. You could, for instance, have a 100% eurosceptic European parliament and aside from prettified words nothing would change or reverse.

The inflexion point we previously discussed is becoming rather crucial. If the FDP roll over and have their tummies tickled, as I expect, then the "EU Stronk" meme gains traction. I can't put my finger on anyone who will call their bluff.

If on the other hand the FDP stand by their supposed policies it could cause serious and embarrassing problems.

Not sure I'd put money on a German government being formed any time soon. The long grass serves too many interests at present.