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Politics

Catalexit

135 replies

Spinflight · 30/07/2017 21:54

Quite a bun fight brewing in Spain..

The Catalonian government has passed laws and whatnot to hold a referendum on becoming independent on the 1st of October.

Which is rather awkward, as the Spanish government, the EU and various other bodies say that to do so, even to hold a vote, would be illegal.

Course there's lots of opinion polls, which naturally are all over the place.

The only thing they conclusively show is that the Catalans want a binding vote.

Whilst this is quite rightly an internal matter, were they to vote out ( which incidentally would put them out of the EU) should we support their wishes?

Surely the right to self determination trumps all other concerns, though it has to be said that we would really, really annoy Spain and the EU in doing so.

Interesting times, as ever. What are your thoughts?

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Carolinesbeanies · 29/10/2017 03:00

Wondered where to pop this little gem, but decided M4dad had earned it on here.

This is Ed Conway, Skys Economics editor. (Perhaps from the Olivia school of economics?)

He tweeted,

"There is only one other country anywhere trading solely on WTO rules. And 1 to 17% of the population live in slavery"

The response is pure twitter gold. GrinGrinGrinGrin

Catalexit
Catalexit
Spinflight · 28/10/2017 16:28

It was a saga Caroline. Apparently. :)

Yes Trump's position is interesting. 1776 and all that ( never mention the treaty of Paris to Americans, it upsets them) gives a certain populist legitimacy and I'd say it is generally considered to be a fundamental American value.

Two republican Senators have flounced off in tantrumy strops, but they represent the rump Republicans. These are not newbies, they know that announcing they won't seek re-election all but destroys their personal power. Hence they've merely highlighted the established order's weakness, even whilst unity is required to get their promised tax cuts through. He's certainly allowed them a muppetry quotient and is starting to reap the dividends.

So a month ago Trump gave his support to the visiting Rajoy. If he's shown any since then I've missed it. Then again I don't expect an outright recognition, or even any comment at all. 98 years ago Ireland declared independence, which given the hyphenated American's roots was more within the US' remit than Catalonia. Not a single nation recognized them.

There are many measures short of recognition which will be at play, either to stay Rajoy's hand or to pressure his government.

Economically the Catalonian's confidence is low, though having talked to two economists and received seven different opinions I could only say that the reality is unclear.

The EU's complicity makes any will on the part of the Catalonians to remain as EU members or use the euro very unlikely. Hence whilst there are various options available it remains a deep and possibly existential problem for the EU due in part to the target2 payments mechanism.

Catalonia could reasonably be assumed to shoulder a portion of Spain's official debt. The target2 imbalances however are not official debt. :)

Whats a few hundred billion euros between new friends though?

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Carolinesbeanies · 28/10/2017 11:01

Steady southlondondaddy, I understand Ms Miller calls herself a "woman of colour". So please, a little respect. I dont mind Ms Miller. I like what shes doing. Its utterly reflective of the tunnel vision of remain. Im certainly not complaining that her legal action ensured parliament ruled on the A50, heavens was it a 498/114 majority? It certainly put to rest the ridiculous incessant complaining about the referendum results. We have a representative democracy, isnt it marvellous. As to her future actions and cause celebre, shes gone all tunnel visionary again. Absolutely fine with me.

Spin, youre right, but just as we have those who think UK business is sitting around twiddling its thumbs waiting for Davis and Barnier to kiss and make up, (theyre not), Trump is utterly kicking ass. The US economy is flying and in doing so hes castrated almost all political argument. Trump tuned in to people power a long time ago. The State department have issued the standard 'political' statement yesterday, but as you say, its an almost certainty that Rajoy will go in heavy handed. Supporters, for now, sit and wait. (We do a lot of that...something to do with muppetry, give them enough rope etc etc)

Either Rajoy goes nuclear and the international community change stance, or someone reigns him in. Im struggling for a 3rd option.

Sorry about the bitcoin, but its been one to watch for its surge this year. The article rightly points back to Greece and the serious consideration given to the bitcoin post financial crisis days. Whats dropped of manys radar, are stats like, 15% of the Greek population, 1.6million people, earned below the extreme poverty threshold in 2015. In 2009 it was 2.2%. Pensions are now below 500eu a month and salaries, after Tspiras' taxes, are bubbling around the same level.

The bitcoin has seen a surge. As talk turns to a fourth bailout for Greece, are we seeing the birth of the alternative EU? Could call it the UEP, Union of European Peoples, its catchy.

Catalonia absolutely know they will be hammered economically.
The EU, the ECB will put as much economic pressure as possible on them to capitulate. Loans will be called in, lending will be blocked. A 'country' 12 times bigger than Luxembourg, Population 7.5million (Luxembourg 500,000), GDP 220billion (Luxembourg 60billion), and the EUs power is in control of the euro.

Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency, imo, has just gained huge legitimacy.

PS Was the extensive walk pleasant? I gather its a beautiful part of the world and my DH is keen to go, indeed sitting here waiting to book his flight.

Figmentofmyimagination · 28/10/2017 08:47

Let's not forget, as we learned at the start of this thread, that spin must know what s/he's talking about because s/he's "walked extensively in the region". Our very own Orwell? Or perhaps more Saga tours?

SouthLondonDaddy · 28/10/2017 06:52

A discussion in the British Parliament? It wasn't even supposed to discuss Brexit. The judges who said otherwise have been declared enemenies of the will of the people by some press, and the lady (she's not even white, so how dare she?) who brought this matter to court has been receiving death threats.

Spinflight · 28/10/2017 00:25

From 18 months or so ago but gives some background to the forces at play which have partly resulted in the UDI.

You might think that governments, bureaucracies and judiciaries would learnt that sweeping things under the carpet causes more problems down the line in a democracy.

Meh...stupid is as stupid does.

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Spinflight · 27/10/2017 23:52

As someone who tried to buy £1000 worth of bitcoins when they were $0.07 each please don't mention them. Lol

Trump is key here. Yes many smaller and worthy states will I expect recognise Catalonia and that I think will be enough. I doubt the Commonwealth for instance will accept 'our' new found position on self determination.

In fact, I suspect they're a bit confused given 'our' stance. Though confused in the same sort of way one would be watching a uniformed police officer slashing someone's tyres.

Supporting Catalonia certainly, on the face of it, seems to satisfy a great many of Trump's foreign policy aims and objectives. Which rather begs the question why the reluctance up till now?

We could even see Putin's Russia beating them to it and trumpeting their belief in self determination, democratic principles and American pie!

Yeah, I know...

There's nothing in the Spanish constitution which allows deposing the Catalonian's government, demanding elections ( which Puigdemont grasped, hence the 155) or at worst sending the tanks in.

Hence given the nature of stupid it's only likely that more stupidity will follow. Putting early adopters such as the detestable May in rather an awkward position.

What, for instance, will the Scottish tories make of all this? The DUP too aren't known for their lack of moral courage and values, whether you agree with said values or not. Both nominally hold the balance of power.

The strange fish, as ever, will be all punchline without the joke to precede it. And Ruth Davidson may enjoy herself, just a bit, at her expense.

Dare one say that those who fought bravely in such epically righteous places as Afghanistan might see any use of force by Madrid as an open invitation? We've been here before, were on the wrong side, and should remember the results and what followed.

Spain isn't just playing with fire with it's own reputation here. Anyone who backs Madrid faces being more than just inconvenienced by their subsequent actions..

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Carolinesbeanies · 27/10/2017 22:35

Now this is smart. This was a great move when Estonia first introduced it.

amp.ibtimes.co.uk/catalonia-looks-estonias-e-residency-considers-cryptocurrency-option-1644838

Bitcoin starts to make sense.

Catalexit
Carolinesbeanies · 27/10/2017 22:19

You did indeed Spin. Arresting Puigdemont will only create a martyr and be utterly counter productive. Rajoy wont negotiate. Its got to be forced take over and then smaller nations will start to declare support. What do you think? Venezuela? Kosovo? Slovenia? Finland?!! Once 1 declares others will follow, and if Rajoy stays on the course we think he will, the big hitters will have to u-turn. Theres an army out there, across europe, prepared to support Catalonia.

I just cant see anyone stopping Rajoy, but like Junker, hes got to go. (Talking of which, hows Junkers Presidency going? Do you think hes pleased with his achievements whilst in office?)

Just one aside, Sturgeons getting in a mess. Shes "respecting" the Catalonian decision, but falls short of formal recognition of an Independant state. The nationalists, want formal recognition. What does she do? Actually scrap that. We know what she'll do, utterly ignore it all and go for a press photo shoot.

Safe to say, support for the EU north of the border is now non-existant.

Spinflight · 27/10/2017 20:17

Theresa May has refused to recognise Catalonian Independence...

I must have missed the debate in parliament.

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/202078

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Carolinesbeanies · 27/10/2017 15:01

Catalonian Parliament declares independance, and in my view, quite right too. This is going to get painful, but from an original fence sitter, to a supporter quite simply due to Rajoys actions and the silence from the EU who could have brought him to heel weeks ago. Well done Catalonia.

Well Spin, there it is. How far does it now spread? And do the EU now back the actions we all know Rajoy is going to take? Thank fuck we dont have an EU army.

SouthLondonDaddy · 27/10/2017 14:36

@Spinflight, so your strategy is cheap sarcasm over something which is true and which no one has said isn’t (the stadium thingy) and deafening silence over your lies which have been debunked (the rape and the fingers broken ‘one by one’). The facts speak for themselves - I don’t think any kind of comment is necessary.

@Carolinesbeanies, what I’d add to your summary is a comment on Jordi Pujol. He was the leader of the largest Catalan Party for about 30 years, and led the Generalitat (i.e. he was effectively the Catalan Prime Minister) for ca. 20, till he fell in disgrace when it was found that he and his family had millions stashed away in Andorra and Panama. His party, the same of Puidgemont, changed name, and strangely became more pro-independence. Some say it’s just a coincidence, prompted by Madrid’s behaviour more than by the Pujol scandal. I am not so sure, because, like I said, rallying your people against an external enemy is the oldest trick in the book to make them forget about your own problems.

Pujol was not just a politician, he was the face of Catalan politics for a very long time – too long a time, actually. IMHO it’s never healthy when a politician can hold the same important role for so many mandates; more than 20 years as Catalan Prime Minister/Governor (or whatever you want to call the role)? I cannot think of many comparable cases. There are cases of politicians leading their party for a very long time, but not many of politicians holding the same role for so long, AFAIK. Imagine if Alex Salmond had been Scottish PM for that long, and he was then involved in a corruption scandal. Imagine if his party changed name to distance itself from him, and then, only then, started to agitate for independence.

As Mistigri rightly pointed out, there was such a thing as Catalan terrorism (e.g. the Terra Lliure [free land] movement). They were active from roughly the ‘late 70s till the early ‘90s. They were no boyscouts, but they were always a much smaller threat than the Basque ETA. It is probably not a coincidence that Madrid offered Catalonia (and specifically Pujol) the same deal given to the Basque country in terms of fiscal autonomy in the ‘80s, when these Terra Lliure gentlemen were active, but Pujol rejected it. Recently the Catalans would want it again but Madrid doesn’t seem so keen.

One thing I must say I quite never understood is the details of the Catalan statute which was declared illegal by the Madrid court. How much of it was substance and how much of it was form? The Catalans already enjoy a huge degree of autonomy, and their language, culture and heritage is protected very strongly. I must say I always find it very odd when these details are not explained clearly. If Madrid had blocked some fundamental right of the Catalan people, shouldn’t the Catalans be shouting it clearly from the rooftops? Instead nothing. A bit like with Brexit: Brexiters have always loved to rant about unelected bureaucrats in Bruxelles and EU interference, but I am still to receive an answer to the very banal question: “OK, so what nasty EU law would you want to get rid of and why?”.

I also cannot stress enough that, similarly to the (lack of) debate around both Brexit and the Scottish independence, there has been no real discussion about the practical implications, and those who dare question how it will work are branded as “fascists”, enemy of the people, etc. , like Isabel Coixet, the director I mentioned, who receives regular abuse in the streets in Barcelona simply because she’s a (relatively) famous Catalan who dares speak out publicly against independence. Surely even those believe that Madrid is the root of all evil and that Catalonia should go it alone shouldn’t smear those who dare have a different opinion?

Spinflight · 25/10/2017 01:00

I suspect the foosball passed you by Caroline because... It's meant to. :)

Just another pointless intra city rivalry from the outside. There could be other instances in sport where the authorities have actively interfered, I really wouldn't know.

Suspect Spain's status as the last bastion of a European dictator makes it unique here, but I'm sure there's plenty who know more than I.

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Carolinesbeanies · 25/10/2017 00:47

Batteries, I agree with Spin, certainly not an ignorant question. Yes the Catalans are divided over Independance, however, pretty much all Catalonians (I think last poll was 90%) want a legitimate vote, a referendum, to ask the Independance question. The outcome was secondary, it was the right to be asked. They were all in agreement over that.

Quick potted history;
This all started about 10 years ago, when a left wing Spanish government gave Catalonia a Statute of Autonomy, (very similar to Scotlands devolution), it was passed in the Spanish parliament by a large majority. However, one right wing party the PP, lead by Rajoy, objected and took a case to the Supreme Court stating it was 'unconstitutional'.

The case dragged on for years, but eventually in 2010, the Supreme Court ruled that key parts of the Statute were indeed illegal. (Heres a good point to repost Spains ranking on 'judicial independance'. In short, its shit)

Catalans protested. In 2011 Rajoy and the right wing PP, won the general election, and became PM (Here comes trouble).

In 2012, Catalonia had their elections, resulting in a pro independance majority. They then in turn, asked for a formal referendum on the question of Independance.
They then scheduled a referendum for November 2014. Rajoy objected and sought a legal block, which he achieved, so the Catalan parliament changed it from a binding referendum to a non-binding referendum. The Spanish court blocked this too, but it went ahead anyway. The result was an 81% vote for yes.

In light of the result, the Catalonian Parliament decided on new elections, this time making it clear that pro independance would indeed start the process for Catalonian Independance. They won the majority of seats, and in November 2016, the Catalonian parliament passed a resolution to start the Independance process.

Puigdemont became Catalonias President early this year (yes a little like Scotlands First Minister) and announced a binding referendum for October. Rajoy and the Spanish Courts blocked it, however this time, well I think youre up to speed, they sent in the heavies to stop the vote. All Catalans were appalled.

Rajoy has now stated he will dissolve the Catalonian Parliament and theres a high probability, Puigdemont will be imprisoned.

Do you know anything about Spanish football Batteries? Ive missed that side story Shock

Carolinesbeanies · 24/10/2017 23:37

Goodness spin, how did this footy saga pass me by!

Watching those videos, Im struck and saddened by one thing in the Spanish one. There are words that shouldnt be coming out of childrens mouths. "They hate us". I know its MN, so perhaps its the mummy in me, but it reminds me of stuff children in custody battles trot out to please one or other parent. What on earth is a child doing, even being made aware of these things. "They hate us." Did I say it right? Do I get a lolly now? That is soooooo bad.

Mistigri · 24/10/2017 21:11

I thought the problem with the Basque movement was that, much like NI, the population is split as to what they want and the long running violence has made it hard to mediate. Catalonia is more like Scotland, is that fair to say

The Catalonian independence movement also has a history of terrorism - there were a number of armed Catalan independence groups active between the 1970s and the 1990s, who perpetrated dozens of bombings. You won't remember them because they were less deadly and therefore less high-profile than ETA or the IRA.

The modern independence movement seems to have been more successful than ETA or the IRA in shaking off past links to terrorism. From what I have read (I make no claim to expertise) it seems that - like in Scotland - a minority of voters are genuinely committed to independence, but many more are hugely and justifiably pissed off with heavy handed behaviour by central government.

Spinflight · 24/10/2017 10:54

Nowt ignorant there Batteries.

Just like the SNP, Catalonians elected a party committed to independence. Who have brought it before the people.

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Batteriesallgone · 24/10/2017 09:57

Following as know nothing about this but couldn’t believe it when I read about the police violence on BBC.

I don’t understand - has Catalan independence been properly debated in the Spanish parliament? Surely if Catalonians want a vote they should have one, that’s what democracy is...isn’t it?

I thought the problem with the Basque movement was that, much like NI, the population is split as to what they want and the long running violence has made it hard to mediate. Catalonia is more like Scotland, is that fair to say?

Sorry obviously no one is obliged to answer my ignorant questions.

Spinflight · 24/10/2017 03:55

Must admit that I'm rather torn.

In the same way that I prefer good adverts to most drama ( soaps) I do have an eye for propaganda.

So trying to rate the quality of such leads me to a difficult decision; name which of the following is the superior form?

Spain's..

Or North Korea's?

Clearly the rather epic sound track on the latter gives it a clear win however if you exclude it I feel the choice becomes quite tricky...

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Spinflight · 23/10/2017 23:49

Ahhh... That's all right then.

Oddly enough football actual has a part to play in all this. After finishing 5th in the Spanish league, which is almost unheard of, the Madrid government bought Royal Madrid's 200 metre square training ground off them.

For $400 million.

As Sir Alex Ferguson said, even the American Embassy in Knightsbridge isn't worth that much.

Their el clasico rivals Barcelona were... less than impressed. You might think no less impressed than any of the other major European clubs but... there's quite a bit of history here.

Franco supported Royal, oddly enough. After Barcelona thrashed them 3-0 in the first leg of a cup game he sent his thugs in. In the return leg Barcelona lost 11-1.

And transfers. It seems the Spanish courts upheld what was little more than a bar room joke as a pre-contract clause which saw Luis Figo, Barcelona's best player, move to Royal Madrid.

When he returned for the el clasico match the list of things that Barcelona fans threw at him doesn't bear thinking about. :)

And lots of other shenanigans over the decades. The theme of which is that the right wing and often fascist establishment supports Royal Madrid and gives them a leg up over their plucky Liberal Catalonian rivals. By fair means or foul.

Never mind the foosball, merely being in Barcelona when they beat Royal Madrid is pretty epic.

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Carolinesbeanies · 23/10/2017 22:53

Woman1107, we like a bit of humour even in dark times, and you cant beat Monty Python. We live in a ridiculous world. Brew

Still wont go for the Russian slant though, our great and good are more than capable of f**% things up all by themselves. Wink

Spicey indeed Spin. This made me smile. Saturday, the day Rajoy announced his intentions of state control over Catalonia and its peoples, dissolving parliament and leaking his intention to prosecute their leaders for rebellion, the Scottish Sun decided to address the issue thats really concerning the public, with this headline.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/4736831/barcelona-la-liga/

Panic over, theyre staying in Shock

Spinflight · 23/10/2017 18:34

"Spin, that made the hairs on my arms stand up. Is it fake? grin"

Completely fake Caroline, glad you enjoyed it.

Quite why 80,000 Catalonian football fans, sorry I mean Spinflight hired actors complete with CGI and scale model of the Bernebeu, would raise the roof in such a way against Royal Madrid..

The next meeting between the two, the first since the referendum, is going to be on 20th Dec.

Could be ... spicey!

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woman11017 · 23/10/2017 17:29

Nigel Farage may get more than he bargains for.
Monty Python - Execution in Russia (funny sketch!)

woman11017 · 23/10/2017 17:21

Ha ha knew you'd say that Carolinebeanies Grin

Carolinesbeanies · 23/10/2017 16:50

Ah, its the Russians. Assange is a Russian mole (hes not in the Estonian embassy is he?!) Wikileaks, is a hot bed of mis-information (though it hasnt got a single thing wrong, ever) and George....I didnt listen too.

Spin, Ive been musing on your dystopian muppetry, and tieing into the 'fake news' bun fight (see what Im doing here Wink) this was a classic last month, that I think youll like.

The most unhealthy country in the world is the Czech Republic, the healthiest, Afghanistan.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/the-czech-republic-is-the-most-unhealthy-country-in-the-world-according-to-a-new-study-a3643601.html

Subsequently, some anti-muppetry thinking was applied by the Spectator.

Life expectancy in Afghanistan, 61 years. In the Czech Republic, 79.

The adult mortality rate Afghanistan 260 per 1,000 people.
Czech Republic, it is 84 per 1,000 people.

The infant mortality rate Afghanistan is 6.6 per cent. Czech Republic, it is 0.3 per cent

http://www.who.int/gho/countries

However, it reached new highs this week (obviously Catalonia apart) This week the WHO announced Mugabe as their Goodwill ambassador. I havent a clue what rationale the WHO used to come to that decision, but clearly muppetry has seriously infiltrated every upper echelon of civilised society.

Its not some right wing revolution we're seeing on our streets, youre right Spin, its a peoples revolution against dystopian muppetry of the highest order, and the followers it creates. (see Russian conspiracy Hmm

Did you pick up the Czech elections this weekend? Working hours have never been so long, pay so low, personal debt so high, and the populist parties romped home. "But but but!" they cry, "How could this be! the economy's booming! We tell them its great, every single day!" Muppets.

Dystopian muppetry? The Afghanis should be celebrating their new found health indeed.

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