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Politics

Catalexit

135 replies

Spinflight · 30/07/2017 21:54

Quite a bun fight brewing in Spain..

The Catalonian government has passed laws and whatnot to hold a referendum on becoming independent on the 1st of October.

Which is rather awkward, as the Spanish government, the EU and various other bodies say that to do so, even to hold a vote, would be illegal.

Course there's lots of opinion polls, which naturally are all over the place.

The only thing they conclusively show is that the Catalans want a binding vote.

Whilst this is quite rightly an internal matter, were they to vote out ( which incidentally would put them out of the EU) should we support their wishes?

Surely the right to self determination trumps all other concerns, though it has to be said that we would really, really annoy Spain and the EU in doing so.

Interesting times, as ever. What are your thoughts?

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Spinflight · 17/06/2018 04:17

With the PP fallen and a weak socialist but pro EU government in place Catalonia's chances appear much brighter.

People tend to forget that democratic forces have rather quiet but powerful friends.

This isn't something which will erupt overnight I think, but is an inevitability in my estimation.

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Carolinesbeanies · 19/11/2017 10:09

Im sure youve picked this up, but .... Spains Attourney General has died suddenly. Not sure how much of an impact it will have on a 'political' solution, but he was very outspoken.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42041611

Latest polls show PP down to 27% and the Socialists up to 25%. Not dramatic, but Iceta seems to be having an influence.

Spinflight · 10/11/2017 13:11

The Belt enquiry starting to bite. Which doesn't entirely surprise me..

www.express.co.uk/news/world/877529/Mariano-Rajoy-corruption-Peoples-Party-Spain-Luis-Barcenas-finance

I would surmise that some rather heavyweight external pressure is likely to be applied via this process.

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Carolinesbeanies · 10/11/2017 01:23

Catalan speaker jailed tonight for allowing debate in the Parliament. And the EU think theyre winning Hmm

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/catalonia-latest-spain-leaders-jailed-rebellion-sedition-over-independence-a8046961.html

Carolinesbeanies · 07/11/2017 01:16

It took me till 4pm to realise today was monday, not sunday. Day off rota has thrown my week!

I dont think Spanish governments have given that much thought to the UK Spin, they are utterly committed to the eurozone and of course hugely reliant on subsidies. (Though I think fishing quotas came up in todays parliamentary debate ....I'll have to go check).

This was the latest bung sent Spains way.

www.youthemploymentdecade.org/en/repor/from-this-year-spain-will-be-able-to-spend-3200-million-euros-to-combat-youth-unemployment/

The problem is, as has been so common in Spain, the money doesnt end up where it was intended.

Will this dent the huge youth unemployment figures, or will some clever new counting scheme (that the ONS would be proud of) ensure key targets are met? As we know, data juggling makes great positive political headlines, but it doesnt actually create full time paid jobs.

Reminds me a tad of Ciudad Real Central Airport......... built to profit the builders and construction investors.

Spinflight · 06/11/2017 12:38

Rural Spain can be very rural indeed. Particularly in the north where you can find plenty of villages that don't even appear to have roads leading to them. Always struck me as completely forgotten or unknown places.

Whilst roads are optional a venerable old git wearing his medals trying to ply you with wine was not. Should probably have enquired which side in retrospect. :)

"Spanish farmers are also concerned about Brexit, given that the United Kingdom is the sector’s fourth most important destination for its agri-food products."

That surprises me, as Spanish imports are second only to Germany's industrial might in value. Takes a lot of oranges to equal one BMW though I assumed it was mainly agri.

Course back in the day our fruit and veg mainly came from Southern Africa, though the customs barrier put paid to that. Suspect you'd see a great deal of Spanish this and that in your groceries.

And fish, which some may be concerned your humble correspondent is obsessed with. Northwest Spain relies very greatly upon our waters, and those of the Falklands. Chances are they do a round trip of the Iberian peninsula before ending up on your plate.

Course if you thought any of the above equals leverage then I can only assume you are misrepresenting the average intellect our of elected betters, never mind their moral turpitude.

On the one hand you could say that Rajoy has chosen a bad time to upset us, though one of his PP colleagues calling for Puigdemont to share Companys' fate didn't get the memo if one were ever sent.

Nor the King of Spain who could only be bothered attending to us whilst he could watch a bit of Wimbledon at the same time. Which was.. noted. Saying that since he used his long delayed speech to lecture us over Gibraltar some wondered why we bothered.

Seemed particularly ill timed as the Royal Navy were busily chasing Spanish vessels out of Gibraltar's waters on an at least daily basis.

Other than Ireland Madrid has by far the most to lose which makes their verbiage and actions seem... A bit odd.

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Carolinesbeanies · 06/11/2017 09:32

Its a lovely sunny morning here Spin, and whilst I think about taking the dog somewhere green and pleasant, I'm immediately struck by thoughts on farming, and this week particularly, the crisis in farming (and related industries) thats decimated Spain and France. So a sunday morning read.

3 reports from this summer, that havent had the publicity they should. (Something to do with obsessed MSM talking up the wonderful EU)

French farmer suicides continue unabated at approx 1 a day.

www.nytimes.com/2017/08/20/world/europe/france-farm-suicide.html

Reports on Spanish farming, the first, which has been on its arse for decades due initially to the heavily weighted support of French farming next door from the EU (which didnt exactly work out well for the French either, go figure), and today, the opening up of the CETA deal etc.

www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/free-trade-deals-at-all-cost-frustrate-spanish-farmers/

and the second, about the changing face of rural Spain.

www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/11/room-in-the-middle-the-africans-repopulating-spains-dying-villages.

Its not long ago, Oriol Junqueras, Catalan VP now imprisioned, spoke to the EU in a farming debate.

"Today, on behalf of my Group, I want to express our solidarity with the whole of the agricultural sector, and in particular with the strike by milk producers and their actions across Europe. The current situation is unsustainable and requires a political solution. Clearly, the measures adopted to date by the Commission have been unable to alleviate the crisis or provide a viable alternative to the quota replacement scheme. As a result, in Spain for example – Galicia to be precise – 14 000 milk producers have had to cope with root-and-branch restructuring in order to continue living and working on the land, but today they are still on the verge of imminent disappearance.
For all these reasons, in the same way that the Commission has intervened in other sectors, it must also intervene in the milk sector, by regulating production, redistributing quotas, offering temporary compensation, encouraging product traceability and helping to bring producers and consumers closer together by correcting the dysfunctions caused by the distribution oligopoly.
Why has the Commission not positively intervened to prevent the negative consequences of this oligopoly established by the major distributors?
Why are we not guaranteeing the rural survival of our milk producers – and farmers in general – who provide extremely positive economic, social and environmental knock-on effects?"

Mr Junqueras, a voice for all Spanish agriculture, will not be walking his dog today, and who knows when a mini bus of Spanish Ultras arrive in a village near you. 2017 indeed.

Spinflight · 06/11/2017 04:59

"He may have created the monster, but it will soon turn inwards as he sells more and more of Spains nationality to the EU in repayment for their 'support'."

If I was going to be as sympathetic to those opposing Catalonia as I could then I doubt I could describe them as less than statist. When significant numbers are giving nazi salutes and shouting viva Franco I consider this to be a stretch.

Still as you say empowering such behaviour and imposing hard line authoritarian law and order policies ( I'd consider locking up political prisoners to be somewhat further along the line than this of course, as too breaking heads in elections) doesn't really fit well with Madrid's current economic situation.

The last Catalonian leader was Luis Companys who also faced extradition, though by the gestapo. Executed by firing squad they named the Olympic stadium in Barcelona after him.

Anyone else finding all of this a bit surreal in 2017? Do those cheap Spanish holidays and bottles of Rioja seem less appealing?

Anyone else struggling to comprehend that we are talking about Western Europe and one of our allies?

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Carolinesbeanies · 06/11/2017 01:37

Late update, Puigdemont and 4 collegues have been freed pending court appearance in Belgium in the next 2 weeks. They are not to leave Belgium.

I just cant see them extraditing Spin. It flies in the face of what the EAW was allegedly supposed to be used for. It would then have to be a legal challenge to have the original Spanish warrants overturned to enable them to return to Spain, and thats not going to happen quickly. I gather those already imprisioned in Spain, could be held on remand for up to 4 years before a trial!

I do wonder if any pro-union Spanish realise what the impact of winning this battle will be. They may retain Catalonian unity for the time being, but with Youth unemployment at 50%, this distraction has only been temporary. Attention will soon return to domestic immigration, employment issues, appalling growth, and the far right have been buoyed by recent (though whispered) public support on the assault on the naughty Catalans.

Has Spains right wing army been born, and whose going to control it now? Certainly not Rajoy. He may have created the monster, but it will soon turn inwards as he sells more and more of Spains nationality to the EU in repayment for their 'support'.

Spinflight · 05/11/2017 13:56

Interestingly Puigdemont and his compatriots have handed themselves into the police following the European Arrest Warrant being issued.

I doubt the Belgian courts will have any option but to hand them over to Madrid, though they might surprise me.

Not entirely sure what he's hoping to gain through this sacrifice.

"The fact they dont want to, doesnt mean they wont."

I share your quiet confidence in the people, though sadly not in our elected betters.

Unless I'm missing something. That chances of the Catalan elections being free and fair are slim to none. If any figure of import has said boo to Madrid's goose then I've missed it.

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Carolinesbeanies · 04/11/2017 10:31

Look on the brightside Spin, we may be able to secure an EAW for Sturgeon and co. Surely theres some 15th century law we can call on?! Grin

Im watching inflation, the 'shock', LOL, of the .25 rate rise this week, wont dent my daughters piggy bank. (Though the BBC very kindly drew a crayon line picture to show us how dramatic this is)

Theres a swell of quiet support building, the treatment of those arrested this week hasnt been missed, and Catalans are starting to organise themselves. Various main routes blocked this week both rail and road.

Danish MP Bertel Haarder addressed the internal issues that various nations have, surrounding the current impasse.

"If Greenland and Faroe Islands want total independence they can have it. Of course then the money we pay to them will stop at some point. But they can have it – it is all up to themselves," Haarder advised, referring to the decades-long debate over the two autonomous Danish territories.
"That is how we should treat each other in modern Europe".

The message is coming over clear though, the principle of democracy is far higher than any internal difficulties it may cause. I think the reticence we're seeing, is a faint hope that Spain indeed u-turns rather than forcing democrats to act. But if it continues all democrats will have to act.

The fact they dont want to, doesnt mean they wont.

Spinflight · 04/11/2017 04:18

"Hows the bond bubble looking?"

Spain's borrowing costs have decreased markedly since the referendum Caroline. The markets approve... effectively.

Even more sinister is Spain using EU mechanisms, the European arrest warrant, to pursue their political opponents.

Who will apparently be charged with rebellion and face up to 48 years in prison. Technically it's only a rebellion if violence is used but the Spanish supreme court appeared to accept arguments that there was the potential for violence to be used.

Closer to home it appears that Spain is garnering support from some unlikely places. Whilst I'd expect journalists and the like to go the full Pravda this doesn't seem orchestrated to me, seems more spontaneous than the manufactured piffle we are used to.

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Carolinesbeanies · 02/11/2017 17:08

So 8 ministers imprisioned pending trial without bail, and an EAW issued for Puigdemont. Well that'll put all the pro-indy supporters back in their box....not.

Heres the swing from July polls, to last sunday. This trend is only going to continue one way, certainly after today events.

Spain is rounding up its political prisoners. Whilst its predictable, its no less utterly outrageous.

www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=22295&LangID=E

Catalexit
Carolinesbeanies · 02/11/2017 16:20

Its the question of 'law' though Donostia. History tells us that. Not wanting to derail, and state the obvious, but theres 'law' and theres a very loose interpretation of the 'law', or even outrageous misrepresentation of it.

The Catalonians were not gathering armies to march into Madrid and overthrow by force, the elected government. Thats sedition. Thats rebellion.

Heres todays open letter sent to the EU from quite a list of academics and politicians, that explains the illegalities of the current situation.

www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/171101_LETTER-TUSK-JUNCKER-FINAL1.pdf

Donostia · 01/11/2017 05:07

The Spanish people appear to support this action en masse. Im struggling to not conclude that rampant facism is alive and well in Spain

You can throw words like fascism around from Britain but the Spanish still have a first hand memory of real fascism. I live two houses down from a govt building where teenagers were tortured by fascists before being tossed in an unmarked grave and doused with quicklime. Most here I've spoken to support unity and the law. Puigdemont went ahead knowing the law. Belief in the law, and the illegality of the referendum is fact, does NOT make for fascism.

Carolinesbeanies · 01/11/2017 03:55

Been looking at European Arrest Warrants this evening. For me, the question is, how do you ensure the EU get involved in this? Asylum doesnt exist within the EU, so Puigdemont hasnt immediately gone that route, which leaves the EAW. Theyve batted off criticism before though re the EAWs, just because hes high profile, doesnt neccesarily mean they will react to legal challenges on an EAW.

Various MEPs speaking out in Parliament this week, but even there, with Junkers contempt for the Parliament shown a couple of months ago, I dont think will particularly cause them concern, unless a member state supports challenging them. France for example, has never extradited a French citizen to another member state under an EAW. The EU havent disciplined France for that. Would the EU put pressure on Belgium if they failed to act on a EAW now? I dont know. I very much doubt it as it draws them in. But as sure as eggs is eggs, theres no way Puigdemont or any of the pro indy representatives can stand for elections in Catalonia as fugitives.

Will the belt enquiry be buried for the time being Spin, as weve seen the inquiry into police violence be dropped?

Carolinesbeanies · 31/10/2017 07:31

Because legitimately elected officials are facing 30 years in prison for representing the Independance issue that they were elected on in the first place Southlondondaddy.

Of course Spain isnt a mass of rampant right wing extremism, (is it?) but a/ you miss my point entirely about tolerating it, and b/ you miss todays context that there does indeed appear mass support for locking up elected officials who were elected for the very belief they are now facing jail for.

As the Spanish senate said yesterday about the new December elections, if pro indy representatives win again in December, they will invoke/retain Article 155.

Supporting Independance is now a criminal offence, sedition and rebellion, and ergo, all those citizens who voted Puigdemont and the pro-indy representatives into the Catalan Parliament in legitimate elections in the first place, are acting illegaly, seditiously and are viewed as rebels.

Why are the Spanish not outraged, at elected officials being rounded up and imprisioned for the very 'manifesto' they were elected on? I really dont know.

Rajoy has declared 'Independance' and, the support of Independance illegal. (30 years in jail) Thats irrelevant to any referendum result, and applies to all citizens, not just elected officials.

The Spanish people appear to support this action en masse. Im struggling to not conclude that rampant facism is alive and well in Spain.

Spin, Brussels? You dont think he's challenging the EU at their very heart re their 'its illegal to give asylum to a fellow member states citizen' do you? Are Belgium about to challenge the fundamental right to asylum that was removed by the EU?

Hows the bond bubble looking?

SouthLondonDaddy · 30/10/2017 11:57

? I’m still not following. Unless you can prove that right-wing extremism is endemic in Spain, that Spain has a substantially higher % of fanatics than any other Western country and that, most importantly, all of this somehow affects Catalonia (how, exactly?), then I genuinely fail to understand how on Earth any of this is relevant to the debate on the Catalan crisis.

Spain has never really dealt with its past. The approach has always been: “Oh, let’s pretend nothing has happened and just move on”. The fact that king Juan Carlos was effectively chosen by Franco beggars belief; the Valley of the fallen (for those who aren’t familiar with it, it’s a monument to the fascists fallen in the Spanish civil war, and it also hosts Franco’s tomb: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valle_de_los_Ca%C3%ADdos ), which you mention, is IMHO a disgrace. Yet, again, I struggle to see the relevance with respect to the Catalan crisis.

The article you link implies, without saying it explicitly, that the anti-independence movement is full of these right wing extremists. I am not so sure. I don’t live in Catalonia (I lived there briefly when I was younger), so my impressions can only be indirect, but I do know quite a few Catalans and I read the Spanish press (including the Catalan newspapers La Vanguardia and El Periodico, which I used to read when I lived there; the latter can be accused of a lot of things but not of having any sort of right-wing inclination!). What I do know is that Rajoy, as much as I don’t like him, cannot really be accused of francosim, that Catalan society is deeply, deeply divided on the issue, that hundreds of thousands of people (all fascists?) have just protested in Barcelona against independence, and that a toxic environment has developed, whereby those who dare disagree with the independence movement are labelled fascists and abused on the streets (see my previous point about the director Isabel Coixet). “Fascist” has a very clear meaning: it does not mean “anyone who dares disagree with you” – abusing words like this is an insult to those who did suffer enormously at the hand of the real fascists.

Carolinesbeanies · 30/10/2017 10:59

"Would it be too much to ask to elaborate on and to substantiate the bits about the open display of francoism and the Nazi salutes?"

Of course. Its the levels of tolerance and legality in Spain. Its exactly as you say, the open displays. We all recognise far right neo nazi idiots, they exist in every country. What we dont recognise is the open displays every year to celebrate Francos death. We dont recognise tombs to facist dictators, such as at the Valley of the Fallen, being celebrated. We dont recognise children, women and the elderly using the facist salute. Indeed, if you tried walking the streets of the UK throwing up a facist salute, youll be lucky if the police get to you first. Football players get banned for life if they do it. It is universally, the most hated and despised action anyone can do in the world.

It is then the refusal to condemn, and the refusal to enact any type of law, that the Spanish people are now judged on. Its their country, its their laws, its their government, and in it, there is clearly mass tolerance. The question is, is it indeed quiet mass support?

Heres one current witness statement.

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/10/francos-fascism-is-alive-and-kicking-in-spain/

As I said, in Germany, to do such a thing will see you get a 6 month prison sentence. If Spain is to tackle this, then total intolerance must be shown. How well do you think that suggestion will go down with the Spanish peoples?

SouthLondonDaddy · 30/10/2017 07:03

Would it be too much to ask to elaborate on and to substantiate the bits about the open display of francoism and the Nazi salutes?

Sure, in Spain there exists a far right, which is against Catalan independence. But I also seem to remember a big rally in Barcellona just now, with hundreds of thousands of people demonstrating against independence.
Were they all neonazis???

Spinflight · 30/10/2017 01:43

"Spain, youre making the world so angry. "

Yes quite, though this has consequences.

With neofrancoism being openly displayed the cat is out of the bag. I'm pretty sure we can assume that investors will be concerned, and some or many may choose to invest elsewhere from political rather than economic motives.

Spain has a budget deficit of 5% and is facing general strikes in 20% of it's GDP. It's bond price might make interesting viewing after today's trading.

Muppets in the street shouting viva Franco should really consider how warmly the rest of the world views fascists. Several of my pro independence Scottish friends seem to have gone rather cold on the EU as a result of all this. Fascist sentiments aren't... exactly welcomed up there.

Sadly I think Madrid's actions, and the Western European response, are going to cause long term reputational harm to our international standing. No fault of the people, it's the moral turpitude of the so called elites at play here.

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Carolinesbeanies · 30/10/2017 01:03

It was a beaut wasnt it. Grin

Coo youre optimistic looking at December elections Spin. Theres me wondering if we get through tomorrow. After a concerning day in Barcelona, Rajoys unofficial advance army is in town, Nazi tatts an all and singing the Franco anthem, I had to sit on hubby today and call for calm. Just cant believe weve got widespread nazi salutes on the streets of europe in 2017. (6 months in jail in Germany for that!) And children lining up to do them too. Spain, youre making the world so angry.

I do hope someone can get at Rajoy, but Im cynical about those dipping in the till. Half the time theyre all at it, so its a huge leap tackling sticky fingers in parliaments at the best of times. We can hope though.

I fear we may see arrests tomorrow, quite unbelievably. Employed by the people, paid by the people, removed by a facist coup, for thats what it clearly is now. Western europe 2017, its staggering.

Spinflight · 29/10/2017 23:09

There might actually be a way out of this...

The nightmare scenario now is indecisive elections on the 21st of December. Say the pro independence parties get 49% of the vote? Whilst these would clearly be for independence it can't explicitly be stated that the other 51% are anti independence.

And this assuming that the elections are fair, that independence candidates and parties are allowed to run and that the PP don't commit more atomic weapons grade stupidity.

There is however the Belt enquiry. Basically a large scale political corruption case in which the very top of the PP is up to their necks in hundreds of millions of euros worth of bribery and corruption allegations.

I suspect all outside parties will be doing some lateral thinking as to how to defuse the situation and don't really regard Rajoy as being part of the solution.

Hence it could be thinly argued that Rajoy's stupidity was based upon him trying to deflect attention from his own legal predicament. That he sent the police in to break heads to potentially bury bad news.

An 'oh look we caught the critter responsible' now lets have a grown up debate about what has happened might well work....

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Spinflight · 29/10/2017 04:37

Thank you Caroline!

Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you! :D

Simply wonderful.

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Carolinesbeanies · 29/10/2017 03:01

LOL wrong thread........ ignore that (though you'll love the muppetry moment Spin)

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