How is brexit going to affect Ireland?

Well, we're used to being fu*ked over by the tories so we'll just add it to the long list of whinges...

Good summary of NI issues here including confirmation that CtA only applies to roi UK citizens.

www.economist.com/news/britain/21725012-nobody-wants-hard-border-which-might-include-passport-and-customs-controls-yet-there-no?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/howahardirishbordercouldreturncourtesyofbrexit

"Take care of them" - that sounds more mafia than you probably meant it to, Spin....

The uniform corporate tax idea has done the rounds before Thea, but theres just no way theyll pass it through. The logic being that it levels the playing field, but states that do indeed need to attract huge corporate investment, corporate tax is the only way to do it. Hungary (Ive not checked but read something this week I think) is looking to go to 9%. They are desperate for investment. Whilst it all looks cushty for Germany to drop to a uniform level of say 22%, can you imagine the impact on the likes of Ireland, Hungary etc being forced to raise 10%/13% respectively?

This is just hot air again that raises its head every so often when they need to get the 'toddlers' in line. EU power house flexing its muscles at its unpleasant and bullying worst.

Yeah we've really fucked things up for them haven't we? Sorry, Ireland.

Spinflight

Based on Macron's views, I have to agree with you, based on what went before.

Presiden Macron is a reformer, both in France and in the EU, as France has just rejected socialist policies, with both the left and far left getting under 10% of the votes or parliamentary seats, I can’t be ‘asked’ to look which as both suck.

Macron has recognised socialist policies were dragging on the French economy and looks more like a Conservative administration; as pro business (looking to LOWER Corporate Tax), make Euro 60 billion of budget cuts, cut government workers by 120,000 and promises to reform restrictive labour laws holding back their economy/investment/job creation.

In the EU he also recognises the current problems and has his own solutions, which is MORE Eurozone, for those in the Eurozone, and screw everyone else – which combined with his domestic policies – is all quite radical in my eyes.

“Macron urges greater euro zone convergence - presses Germany to act”

”Macron, elected in May, has called for giving the euro zone a single finance minister and a common budget - a proposal that has been met with caution by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and suspicion in Berlin that German taxpayers might be left having to shoulder common debts.”

"I have never reproached Germany for being competitive," Macron said in the interview. "But a part of German competitiveness is due to the dysfunctionalities of the euro zone, and the weakness of other economies."

”German business newspaper Handelsblatt reported on Wednesday that the finance ministers of Germany and France planned to present a roadmap for the harmonisation of their countries' corporate taxes at a joint cabinet meeting on Thursday.”

Nope, populists dress themselves up as anti establishment when they are anything but.

Macron might be new but it will be same old, same old. Pragmatism wins here.

The populists had five minutes of fun with trump and Brexit but the game is up.

Macron is centrist so it's neo liberal status quo. The far right populists have been defeated in mainland Europe. Brexit Britain and trump's America will be neo liberalism on steroids. Ordinary folk will be the losers. There is no revolution in populism it is merely the elites solidifying their power.

Do you have evidence Ireland wants to leave? The north voted to remain. Brexit has solidified support for the EU across Europe as they see what a cluster fuck leaving is.

Right, so now that a Brexit domino effect failed to take hold on mainland Europe, leavers now shift towards Irish fall out. Desperate.

No, can't think of any likely advantages. It's looking pretty shit.

DD knows sweet FA about Ireland. And there have been informal discussions- one of which was when the British government tried very hard to stop the EU agreeing to Ireland's proposal that in the event of a united Ireland happening as a result of any referendum in the future, NI would automatically be in the EU. I don't see a UI as as result of a disastrous BRexit for NI as being a positive either btw. There is enough of a mess in Brexit for ROI to deal with without adding an expensive and politically charged Union with NI to the mix.

What advantages do you think there might be for Ireland?

The thread seems to have taken a bitter and nationalistic tone, which is unfortunate. That I don't accept the narrow characterisations painted should be obvious.

Yeah, nothing nationalistic about the leave campaign was there? Our borders, Our jobs, Our laws, Our sovereignty etc.

What then, changing track, are the likely advantages for Ireland inherent in brexit?

Potential for businesses to relocate or set up. Other than that effects likely to be negative. And that's before you get onto the north.

Re “Again, I must have imagined leavers talking up trading opportunities with the rest of the world post Brexit. The Tories are making noises about trading with the US. Lets see how the NHS fares..”

The UK and the U.S. have been ‘trading’ well before John Wayne was a cowboy, and UK companies are probably still the largest foreign country investor in the U.S. supporting around 1 million U.S. jobs.

So no ‘noise’, the trade ties exist that can be both expanded and formalised, but clearly Trump ‘the businessman’ will be a tough cookie.

Which brings me to that old left wing ‘chestnut’ that America will take over the NHS.

Apart from the obvious point that no company can ‘take over’ a State service if the government don’t put it up for sale, Trump is a businessman, under a Conservative government putting piecemeal NHS services up for tender the private sector can do cheaper, there ain’t much money in it – it was under Labour and their abuse of the Private Finance Initiative, where private companies could make up to 71% profit - so based on records in power (rather than use of misinformation mantras), CURRENTLY under this government, the NHS is in much safer hands.

You aren't wrong usually, though the British government isn't allowed to talk to the Irish government about this. Indeed when brexit related things come up in joint discussions the Irish have to either leave the room or remain entirely silent.

What meetings are these Spinflight? Who are the British talking to when the Irish have to leave the room? Genuinely interested. My understanding is that the UK govt have been absolutely no help in planning for Brexit as they haven't a clue what they want themselves.

Regarding contributing to the EU on security issues, the Irish Army have a proud peacekeeping history and the Navy are currently deployed in the Med on with the EU migrant search and rescue operation so I guess we can contribute in those ways.

I suspect if you wanted to be ready for brexit in Ireland you should have started at least five years ago. And invested an awful lot of money to do so.

Pity we didn't have a heads up, eh? I think the Irish Govt is only too aware that this is not an ideal planning scenario.

Ireland currently enforce that on behalf of the UK at their geographic border.... The current arrangement of Ireland taking that responsibility will remain. "
Your wording is a bit off: Ireland takes responsibility for its own borders, it doesn't do it on the behalf of the UK. And perhaps we in RoI need to be more concerned about economic migrants coming from the UK post Brexit, rather than the other way around ;)

That is absolutely not the case. EU citizens, have and will always be able to enter the UK on their passports.
None of us have any idea what the EU border scenario will be like post Brexit. It is entirely possible that UK citizens would need an ESTA type holiday visa to enter the EU. There will need to be some controls, no matter how minimal. Apart from anything else, there will be an enormous amount of potential for smuggling across EU borders via NI and this will have to be accounted for. It might have been possible to put border controls on the island, but now that May is in bed with the DUP I doubt that is viable.

The CTA is based on a different world where Ireland wasn't in the EU and where the UK government doesn't consider RoI a foreign country for the purposes of British law (Ireland Act, I949). Îs that going to stand post Brexit? There's a lot of messy legislature left over after Irish Independence (they still don't know where the border runs through Lough Swilly). We all want a friction-less border. But I don't see how it is possible, it's another cake and eating it scenario. I really do hope it is solved somehow.

I don't understand your overall reasoning Caroline. Do you think that there will be minimal to no economic or political impact on RoI because of Brexit? What do you think RoI should do? Are you one of those who think RoI should ditch the EU and rejoin the UK?

European citizens have always been welcomed to visit the UK, what youre attempting to say is the utter eurotrash that EU citizens will be barred? They really really wont. Its simply their terms of 'visitation' that will change.

Ah, I must have imagined the taking back control of borders, British jobs for British people part of the leave campaign. I must also have imagined the 40 odd % rise in reported race hate crimes post referendum. I didn't say Europeans would be barred. Whether they want to come (applications for nursing applications from EU now in major decline) with the whiff of xenophobia lingering over Britain remains to be seen.

This is utter ignorant rubbish. On all points.

Again, I must have imagined leavers talking up trading opportunities with the rest of the world post Brexit. The Tories are making noises about trading with the US. Lets see how the NHS fares..

Or was your post simply a weak effort at making some nasty shitstirring point about "The Irish in Britain haven't exactly been greeted with a warm welcome historically."? That sort of bullshit is not worth responding to.

My Irish family have first hand experience of harsh treatment in the UK. Anti irish sentiment in the UK is well documented - from Punch magazine cartoons to 'no dogs, no blacks, no irish' signs.

"I suspect some people see Ireland as the EU's achilles heel and use the country as pawn in the Brexit game. Sad really given the close economic and social ties between Ireland and the UK. As a pp has said Ireland has done very well from the EU (as has the north) and I don't see that changing - for RoI at least.

Brexit may well sink UK and Ireland economically - at least the latter has 26 allies, UK will likely go crawling to Trump."

This is utter ignorant rubbish. On all points.

"As a previous poster has pointed out if the status quo continues re: border, nothing to stop an EU citizen driving from Dublin up to Belfast. Does taking back control of borders only apply to England?"

This completely misunderstands a/ EU citizens rights and b/ the CTA.

Lets just roll with the 'invisible' border for a moment. No EU citizen can currently enter the UK without a passport and passing through passport control. Ireland currently enforce that on behalf of the UK at their geographic border. So first step, the EU citizen has already been proven to be an legal EU citizen when entering Ireland.

Up goes the 'invisible' border, and of course an eu citizen can simply drive to Belfast. However, your assumption is that post Brexit EU citizens will be banned from the Uk. That is absolutely not the case. EU citizens, have and will always be able to enter the UK on their passports. (Unless theyre 'wanted' or barred of course) The whole what about visas?!!! Is another fearmongering baseless fallacy and indeed the worst the Eu can force on the UK is to put us back to our position, pre-EU treaties.

The current arrangement of Ireland taking that responsibility will remain. What will be removed by Brexit is the right of EU citizens to remain, work, claim local benefits etc. Tenancy rules in the UK already ask for proof of residential rights, just as employers are responsible for proof of rights to work. So just because an EU citizen has physically moved him/herself into NI, doesnt mean that by physically standing on the north side of the 'invisible' border, they suddenly gain some rights to live, work and demand support. They dont.

As currently happens with the CTA, any EU national has the right when entering Ireland, to travel freely within the CTA. For example, the Isle of Man is not in the EU however, the CTA preceded the EU treaties, and therefore certain rights to travel were allowed. What does happen though with the IOM, is that to work, you need to apply for a work permit, and to live, you must prove you are financially self sufficient. There is no 'assumed' right, that because youve been able to freely travel to the IOM, you have any right to work, draw benefits or live there supported by the Government.

So what point are you trying to raise Ghost? European citizens have always been welcomed to visit the UK, what youre attempting to say is the utter eurotrash that EU citizens will be barred? They really really wont. Its simply their terms of 'visitation' that will change.

Or was your post simply a weak effort at making some nasty shitstirring point about "The Irish in Britain haven't exactly been greeted with a warm welcome historically."? That sort of bullshit is not worth responding to.

if only Ireland had a crystal ball 5 years ago to predict Brexit would happen...

I suspect some people see Ireland as the EU's achilles heel and use the country as pawn in the Brexit game. Sad really given the close economic and social ties between Ireland and the UK. As a pp has said Ireland has done very well from the EU (as has the north) and I don't see that changing - for RoI at least.

Brexit may well sink UK and Ireland economically - at least the latter has 26 allies, UK will likely go crawling to Trump.