How is brexit going to affect Ireland?

200 jobs here, 200 jobs there. That's how Brexit will work. Banks are setting up hubs on the European mainland. Easyjet have announced a post Brexit base outside UK. Where are the companies queueing to move to UK?

So a cleaner within Morgan Stanley has said that maybe 200 more staff may move to Frankfurt to join the 200 staff already there.....out of the 5000 in London. Come back ghost when the barrel scrappers have something better to go on. What a waste of copy.

Looks like Frankfurt will get some of the spoils too

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/19/morgan-stanley-picks-frankfurt-post-brexit-hub#comments

Try reading the whole sentence ghost.........

Why on earth should Ireland be bothered in the slightest that those nasty bullies in England

Patronizing guff, you'd do well to read up on Irish history.

Kofa, you are soo wrong if you believe I am anti-Irish. In short, and then I suggest we all leave it there, is the argument that having thrived under the EU, that everything is now threatened by the UK leaving, is a straight forward contradiction. Why on earth should Ireland be bothered in the slightest that those nasty bullies in England can now finally be relegated to the 3rd world wastrells? Surely Irelands got the EU on their team, and should be celebrating an historic UK exit?

You are right Caroline- Ireland has thrived within the EU. Prior to membership their biggest trading partner was the UK and as the small fish in that relationship they were being royally screwed over. Membership of the EU opened up markets and gave them.a voice and a say.

The Irish referendums are completely different to the UK. They have happened because to accept some EU treaty changes a change in the comstitution was required and the Irish constitution cannot be changed without a referendum. In cases where referenda were rerun it was because the government went back to the EU and said "the people voted no because of e.g.cincerns about neutrality" and the treaties in question were amended to reflect these concerns. The people then voted in another referendum on amended treaties and not the originals as leavers love to imply.

The bailout resulted in austerity but Ireland is now in recovery and the economy is growing again it was a tough few years for many but not as tough as the pre EU days and when shackled to the failing UK economy (remember the IMF in the pre EU UK Caroline?). Nor was it is tough as the 800 years of British colonialism when the land and resources were stripped from the people who were brutalised and forced into poverty for the purpose of enriching the English coffers.

Yes and look where they are today- they have a growing economy but this is now under threat by Brexit as is peace and stability and the GFA. But they do have a young, well educated and hard working workforce which is a big draw for FDI and a government who actually seem to understand what Brexit means and are part of the EU27. Membership of the EU has widespread support across the country a d there will be no Irexit.

It is interesting thst your final attempted lash at the Irish is at corporate tax when this is one of the policies your leaver buddies seem keen to adopt in your post EU Nirvana.

It must niggle a little bit when you see the weak.punny kid that you were always able to manipulate and bully grow up, find a voice, build their strength and fight back. Who knows though there may be a lot they can teach you and as I reminded Spin earlier there might be a time when we might be glkad of a friend across the Irish sea. .

"I doubt Caroline knows much more than she's Googled about Ireland."

And there we go. No argument, so attack the poster.

OK guys. Ireland has done fantastically well in the EU. It has uttely thrived. They really didnt mind having multiple referendums, as there really is a total concensus of support it was just the voters needed a bit more 'education'. They were thrilled to bits over the bailout and indeed, see, the eu were right! Look where they are today! Its all fantastic stuff and its going to carry on indefinately as theyre never going to leave the great land of milk and honey EU.
(Absolutely nothing to do with creating a tax haven and slashing corporate tax) You win.

The Brexiteers told us other nations would follow the UK out - a domino effect they said. It hasn't happened.

Now the Brexiteers hope to coax Ireland out. That won't work either.

Poll suggests 88% of Irish people want Ireland in EU

www.rte.ie/news/2017/0509/873610-eu_poll/

Leo..not Leon obviously

I doubt Caroline knows much more than she's Googled about Ireland. The only shafting here is being done by the Brexiteers. As per usual they are refusing to take any responsibility for their actions and are trying to blame the EU for a situation entirely caused by them. There will be no Irexit.

Here's a nice overview of modern Ireland. It's a puff piece for Leon but gives a fair enough overview for those who actually would like to know a bit more about Roi
time.com/4856244/leo-varadkar-prime-minister-ireland/

The EU have shafted Ireland

Curious to know if you are Irish and if not, when you last went there? I go to Ireland (republic) fairly regularly for work, and a couple of summers ago went to NI on holiday. Lots of European money being spent there, and of course without the GFA (in which the EU played and continues to play an important role role - see link below) we would never have gone to NI as tourists.

www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/76/7607.htm

"I sincerely hope Ireland does well out of this, "

I do too, and Im a 'leaver'. The EU have shafted Ireland and were/are on target to shaft them again.

ghost I thought Frankfurt was the main gainer, but I sincerely hope Ireland does well out of this, as brexit will screw them royally in other respects.

(Something weird about that article, though, as it thinks Manuel Valls is the new French prime minister!!! Fact checking might not be this journalist's strong point).

www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/germans-tell-irish-that-the-british-are-a-disgrace-35935039.html

Dublin is streets ahead of EU rivals as City firms plan for Brexit relocation

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/15/dublin-first-choice-london-banks-brexit-relocation-plans

Attitudes like spin's totally exposes the jingoistic and xenophobic tendencies behind the leave movement.

Completely agree Kofa. Delusion of empire.

@ Spinflight "Oh I suspect we'll take care of them squishy. We know how much whingeing would really if we don't. ducks

You do know the empire is no more, don't you Spinflight? It might do you well to remember that the days of talking down, dismissing and patronising the Irish are well and truly over. Brexit hasn't happened yet and there may come a day when you will be mighty glad to have some friends across the Irish Sea.

Caroline

Very good points.

I forgot the economic 'multiplier' of lower Corporate Taxes, and how useful a competitive tool lower Corporate Tax can be when needing to attractive more companies to your shores - especially if countries in the west want to attract jobs currently in the likes of China - when as their 'costs' of production including pay rates grow, investment/jobs there, it will make sense for companies to bring production back to somewhere in the west.

"As to lower Corporate Tax within the Eurozone that would cause a problem for harmonisation, how much does the UK raise from Corporate Tax, somewhere just north of £60 billion a year, so how much would it cost the EU coffers with 'a bit of cash wee here, a bit of cash woo there', to compensate the likes of Hungary with the size of their economy, so they fall in line?"

In theory , sort of Thea, but in reality no.

Cuts in Corporate Tax, historically more than make up for any loss of revenue from the cut, by generating new revenue streams. However, and this is why the EU big hitters want harmonisation across the zone, a corporate tax race, from a harminised EU, will then only benefit those 'big hitters' in the EU. By ensuring the tadpoles in the EU cant impact the 'race' (by doing their own thing), like Hungary, Ireland etc, (and why Im highly interested in the 3 seas initiative specifically) in the event of a global/UK/EU corporate tax race, 15 of the EU states would end up an utter corporate wilderness. No amount of subsidies or 'bungs' will make up for that.

This is where the UK being a 'sole' trader, comes into its own. The UK will absolutely manoeuver on this one regards the banking industry etc and the EU recognising thats coming, need a combination of the 'big 3' to counter it. The rest of the EU would be collateral damage. It is shit or bust time, but the EU are clearly wanting to line up their lambs for slaughter.

I assume youre refering to this bit in that article usuallydormant?

"Most people will no doubt continue to move freely across the border, but the CTA applies only to British and Irish citizens."

Tut tut tut The Economist. This is incorrect and naughty reporting. Whilst the CTA yes only applies to British and Irish Citizens, the CTA area, has become a "free movement zone" for CTA AND EU citizens. I'll explain.

The CTA is currently supported in legislation in all participating countries. The legislation that applies in UK law, is section 1(3) of the Immigration Act 1971 and the Immigration (Control of Entry through Republic of Ireland) Order 1972. These originally gave all Irish citizens exemption to any immigration controls. The right to simply walk in.
In 2014 Article 4 of the 1972 Immigration order was replaced by an exemption for EEA/ Swiss nationals and their family members (can I call them EU citizens for ease of typing?) who have a right under EU FOM .

Now that was the very very important bit, the Economist writer has disregarded. Let me be clear, under the Immigration (CoEtROI) Order 1972, Article 4, 2014 ammendment, all EU nationals can indeed enter the UK from the ROI without any immigration control (showing of passports etc) . They can just walk in.

All our other borders, airports, ferries, eurotunnel, etc do indeed enforce immigration control and passports and proof of EU citizenship at the point of entry, and why the ROI since 2014, have acted on our behalf controlling entry into ROI because from that point forward any EU national can just walk on through.

The legislation on the ROI side is under their Immigration Act 2004. Everyone who is not Irish or British is classed as a 'non-national'. Any non-national (and this is what applies to the current invisible border with NI) that arrives by land, must obtain immigration permission within 1 month of entry. EU nationals arriving by land must have their passports/valid ID, just as they would entering by air or sea. They may be asked to produce these. (There are currently numberplate recognition and cctv cameras on the Irish /NI border)

In the IOM (who is not a member of the EU) they accomodated the CTA to cover EU citizens by their Immigration (EEA) Regs 2009.

The channel Isles (trade only arrangement with the EU) accomodated the CTA amended their European Communities Law 1973 to accomodate EU citizens.

etc etc etc

From the EUs side, the 'CTA' was covered by Protocol 20 of the EU Treaty. Protocol 20 allows the UK and Republic of Ireland to ‘continue to make arrangements between themselves relating to the movement of persons between their territories (‘the Common Travel Area’)’.

(The EU have no juristriction over the IOM, Channel Isles etc hence not included in the EU Treaty)

In short, because of the difficulties of the CTA when the soft border was agreed, and the conflicting EU 'freedom of movement' rights, participating countries in the CTA extended the same rights of CTA entry to EU citizens, irrespective of whether that country was a member of the EU or not. There is no reason whatsoever, why EU citizens dont retain their rights to travel to the UK under the CTA friendly UK legislation. No reason whatsoever. The IOM, Channel Isles etc etc have already accomodated EU citizens within the CTA, theres absolutely no reason why the UK wont do the same.

They are and will always be welcome to visit the UK. Brexit is not a banning of europeans from visiting the Uk. Brexit is changing the terms of those visits.

Lets assume a 'hard' Brexit line. An EU citizen will not be able to stay for longer than say 3 months, they will not be able to live here (unless residency is applied for under normal immigration rules etc) and claim government support. They will not be able to work here. None of those things require a hard NI/ROI border as the ROI already control immigration at the point of entry (and keep out those naughty EU citizens who arent eligible to FOM. It works.

There is however, always the possibility of non-EU citizens inadvertantly breaching immigration rules by crossing the unmanned NI/ROI border. Heres what the NI Law Centre said about it.

" Callers to our advice line are often surprised to hear that, while the CTA is a “free movement zone” for CTA and EEA nationals, it is not so for other nationals. This lack of awareness can result in people committing an offence by crossing the land border. In some cases, this can lead to detention and removal. Clearly, this brings with it a high human cost as well as the economic cost of immigration enforcement. "

Current immigration control works.

Coming back to your article, there are 2 premises that the writer is stacking his 'high risk of hard border' argument on. Trade and people. Trade, hes basing it on TMs current stance of no customs union. That is absolutely not going to be the case as I explained why regards VAT earlier. Its not just me being an optimistic 'leaver' making up arguments as I go along, its the reality that a/ for both the UK and the EU, its free money and a lot of it, but b/ TMs stance is quite simply one of negotiation in that we do indeed have the right to stop VAT. In one fell swoop we can reduce our import costs from the EU by 20%. Thats a massive amount of money to negotiate with. Would you like your new Merc to cost 20% less overnight? Of course shes sticking to her guns at this stage.
The position over people, well they just wont discuss it yet. The EU have set the agenda and so be it.

These highly emotive articles are going to be rammed down our throats for the next 12 months. Its spin. Its fearmongering, and theyre utterly unfounded.

Oh I suspect we'll take care of them squishy. We know how much whingeing would really if we don't. ducks

Fuck off with your imperialist bollocks.

Carolinesbeanies

While that new article does mention the way forward via one of those 'roadmaps', only one up from 'whenever', I wouldn't underestimate this renewed drive to a Eurozone convergence, or the influence of Macron - as even IF, repeat IF, he bombed on domestic policies, he'd be looking for his legacy in the EU.

As to lower Corporate Tax within the Eurozone that would cause a problem for harmonisation, how much does the UK raise from Corporate Tax, somewhere just north of £60 billion a year, so how much would it cost the EU coffers with 'a bit of cash wee here, a bit of cash woo there', to compensate the likes of Hungary with the size of their economy, so they fall in line?

Ireland would need a lot more 'wooing' lol, but you get my points, that one day should they be the only one left, their will be a face off and as we see with Barnier, they don't play nicely, especially if for 'the (federalist) cause'.