How is brexit going to affect Ireland?

Because you aren't talking sense. You merely pick a point and then try to use it to prove something else.

Why did the UK need to use even larger expansionary policies prior to 2015? Why did it need to use them again in 2016? Why is the UK's QE project signifcantly bigger than that of the ECB?

The ECB should probably have started earlier, and has been criticised for failing to do so. The tremors from the financial crisis are still going on across the world, even in this country we are still following policies to do with it.

Sorry Sore Arse, your criticisms of the Eurozone policy don't stand up? Why? Because the UK has used exactly the same policies and continues to do so.

Oh good, the EU apologist poster with the self promoted 'economic brain the size of a planet' has finally answered, with no -excuse- answer on why the EU project needed to START in early 2015 such huge monetary expansionist policies, several years after the financial/economic crash - other than growth and jobs were down in the pan-hole, and nothing else was working.

Anyway folks, nothing more to see, please carry on with all things EU-Irish related, there is news out there.

Oh please sore arse, don't try and explain basic economics to me.

The UK has had a larger level of QE in proportion to the size of the economy than the EU. The EU started its QE later than the UK, and the UK is following pretty similar economic policies.

The fact that you are using the points about the EU to critique it when it is exactly the same as what the UK has done, and in some cases to a larger extent, shows that you don't understand what you are talking about.

As usual.

bathildabagshot1

Interesting, while I acknowledged that I didn’t take account of post Brexit UK QE, as an economics ‘know-it-all’ you neither acknowledge the several errors you made, extent of ECB QE operations, and WHY they were necessary in early 2015 – several years after the financial/economic recession began - hence since 2010, the UK had created more jobs to the start of EU QE, than the sclerotic post-recession Eurozone had achieved, put together.

Another error I made was not include the Financial Times link I referred to, and just ONE line why the ECB began that QE, and a central bank NEGATIVE interest rate policy (to bank deposits) that is unprecedented in any large western economy I can currently see.

Feb 2017; “How the ECB’s purchases have changed European bond markets”

” With about €1.5tn in assets, the central bank hopes to kick-start continent’s economy”

So next you try to the old economics fall back when trying to baffle-with- bullsquirt using the big picture GDP ‘smoke and mirrors’, to blow smoke up my pert non bleached bottom, it appears that you quite infatuated with, judging by how often you mention it,

Now clearly I am not the economics ‘guru’ that you profess to be, but based on the definition of GDP (below), if some major EU member governments are still INCREASING their annual budget deficits (while the UK is actively reducing ours from a projected £167 bil in 2010 to around £47 bil a year now) and the ECB is conducting a large monthly QE operation – together with the ‘money multiplier’ of banks lending rather than paying NEGATIVE interest rates securely placing funds at the ECB – isn’t the Eurozone’s policies effectively buying GDP GROWTH, to paper over the much needed member reforms?

Gross Domestic Product – Basic Definition.

”Private Consumption/Spending + Government Spending + Business capital Spending + Net Exports (Exports – Imports).”

An ECB ‘printing money’ that in theory will have to be repaid/reversed within several years, WITHOUT the necessary Eurozone reforms to encourage greater company investment, especially into recruitment, due to onerous labour laws – is no more than a Eurozone giant ‘Ponzi Scheme’. IMVHO.

FYI the USA has had $12 Trillion in QE and its GDP is $18 tn so 66.6 % of GDP, yet all you brexiters want a trade deal with them.

Sweet Pea, you are accusing the EU of being unstable when its following the same actions that the UK government has done.

Again the size of the QE has to be measured against the size of the economy, and the UK's QE is substantial, and yes you were wrong about it finishing in 2012 ( at which point the EU hadn't really started btw, the UK began in 2009).

Lets demonstrate using the numbers, I know you might be able to understand that.

UK's current QE (USD) $622 bn. Current UK GDP, $2691trn so QE is about 23% of GDP.

Eurozone current QE ( your figures) $2tn. Current EU GDP 11.885 tn, 16 % of GDP.

So which area is the desperation zone?

Eurozne growth is also higher in 2017 than UK growth.

So dear sore arse, even with the UK's stimulus, and 0.25% interest rate, 2nd lowest corportation tax in the EU, and lots of other stinulus that it offers, its growth is lower than that of the Eurozone, and far below that of some of the EU countries not in the eurozone.

Do please try not to argue economics with someone who knows what they are talking about, sorry sore arse.

bathildabagshot1

Re your following selective, and obviously calculated attempt to mis-inform, wrapped up in rather obnoxious self-importance.

”Oh my days such a poor reading of the situation.”

”By 2012 the UK had spent £375 bn on QE, whilst the ECB had spent E212bn. The ECB has now spent E1.2 trillion”

”Do try harder petal.”

Firstly I was incorrect that the BoE had stopped QE around 2012 on some Euro threat or another, as I had not realised after the Referendum with the UK economy not crashing and all, that the BoE had pumped in more liquidity to make sure, via government and Corporate bond buying.

But after that, your intention to mis-inform to hide the extent of the Eurozone’s inability to economically grow without emergency money pump priming by the ECB is staggering – especially when comparing the operations between the UK and EU.

In the UK with our de-regulated banks worse affected by the financial crash than others (which is why back then only the UK in Europe had to part nationalise any major high street banks) the bulk of our Bank of England QE was between 2009-2012 to £375 billion – the £60-£70 billion rest is kinda Brexit related ammo while our Base Rate, as you showed (without the ECBs, I wonder why?) at 0.25% -with recent BoE member voting, closer to our first hike in around a decade.

In the EU, as far as I can see the ECB only began a similar type of QE (asset buying mentioned below) to ours in early 2015, SEVERAL YEARS after the financial crash, it must be over Euro 2 trillion now and still rising by Euro 60 billion a month, the ECB Base Rate is 0% - _and the ECB have an emergency NEGATIVE deposit interest rate policy around - 0.4%, to FORCE EU banks to lend, that we do not have here.-

According to the Financial Times in February 2017 (below), the ECB already had Euro 1.5 trillion of QE under its belt, with its buying of government bonds, Covered Bonds (that affect mortgages) and Corporate Bonds (listed below), were distorting EU interest rates unnaturally lower – and mentioned that the ECB had just lowered the monthly buying from Euro 80 billion a month to Euro 60 billion a month.

ECB QE holding as of Feb 2017 and still rising by Euro 60 bil a month until further notice.

• Government bonds — €1.34tn
• Covered bonds — €228bn
• Corporate bonds — €61bn
• Asset-backed securities — €23bn

So ‘petal’, if you think that an EU with all of the above needed to ONGOINGLY stimulate the Eurozone economies from early 2015, several years after the crash, was in any kind of patient health, without the need of emergency monetary CPR – its YOUR reading of the EU economic situations that’s not just ‘poor’, but so desperately poor in trying to see what you want to see.

It was probably Germany and their historic fears of hyper-inflation that kept the ECB from doing too much QE type money pumping before it all got so unemployment rate desperate a few years back, but they will not want this to go on much longer (never mind reversed the QE, taking all that money back OUT of the system), and will want much higher Eurozone 19 interest rates earlier than most ‘members’ – and that is when the Eurozone monetary splits will start to occur. IMO

BTW Oxford Economics is pro EU.

But its funny how the experts are only quoted when it suits eh?

This:

"Only 19% of businesses cite a eurozone break-up as the key medium-term risk for the global economy."

Is because the risk of it has lowered, not because they think it wouldn't effect them.

"especially when interest rates have to 'normalise' back to pre crash levels, and the ECB has to finally STOP flooding the EU with cheap money via emergency QE type liquidity - the UK finally was able to stop 5-years ago, and even that was due to Eurozone wobbles."

Oh my days such a poor reading of the situation.

The UK current interest rate is 0.25%, the UK had a round of QE last year to the tune of £60bn taking our current level of QE ( in real terms) to about £55bn.

By 2012 the UK had spent £375 bn on QE, whilst the ECB had spent E212bn. The ECB has now spent E1.2 trillion

The UK's level of QE is far larger than that of the EU's when you apply it to the scale of the economies involved.

Do try harder petal.

"IN or out of the EU the UK's prosperity relies on the EU being a successful trading bloc."

Not as our main prosperity 'dodgy eggs in one basket' we have to net annually subsidise for much longer, god willing.

The 'one currency and interest rate fits all' for the 19 different economies on the Eurozone is clearly flawed, especially when interest rates have to 'normalise' back to pre crash levels, and the ECB has to finally STOP flooding the EU with cheap money via emergency QE type liquidity - the UK finally was able to stop 5-years ago, and even that was due to Eurozone wobbles.

And its not just the Brexiteers that have on-going fears of a Eurozone break up, although that fear, on the election of President Macron (or 'Jupiter'' to the press), has significantly dipped - on the fanfare of 'change' the last few French President's promised, but failed abysmally.

As according to new research by Oxford Economics published Friday. Only 19% of businesses cite a eurozone break-up as the key medium-term risk for the global economy, down from 28% in the second quarter survey and the lowest level in more than a year.

Still 19% of businesses not fully investing, hiring, is still high.

The constant brexiteer refrain on the EU being finshed is a bit hopeful.

IN or out of the EU the UK's prosperity relies on the EU being a successful trading bloc.

Sorry I was awful. But the whole caboodle is a mess. And it's frustrating to always hear well what about this or that. Personally I think the EU may be finished in a few years. Or some folk think the UK will remain more or less a member in all but name. Only time will tell. I don't know al lot about the Cash for Ash but I'm no fan of the DUP.

Vivienne if you have a problem with corruption don't Google the Cash for Ash scandal that the DUP who are supporting the Tory government are involved in. It seems home grown corruption is ok for some. You might also want to take note of LivLemler's post and then think about educating yourself in the facts.

In other Brexit/Ireland consequences I think this poor Country Squire contributor has lost the run of himself !
"If Britain wants to it can run Eire into the ground where there are no consolations – its spotty youths will brain drain again to the US and Britain and its economy will crumble. In a decade, after some bumps in the road, Britain and the North of Ireland will flourish. Varadkar will be on the political scrapheap like Sturgeon. The squeals of puppies trapped in car boots will be long gone. Britain’s farms will be booming. The EU will be without Italy and the vacuous Macron experiment will be a distant memory, as will Merkel who won’t dare show herself in public after a fatwa has been put on her by the Muslim Mayor of Cologne.

Maybe then prodigal Eire will seek membership of the UK. Unlikely. Unless they somehow – miraculously – developed loyalty, we’d not actually want them or their hurdy-gurdy."

countrysquire.co.uk/2017/08/10/get-stuffed-eire/

Thanks Vivienne. Much appreciated. You do of course realise that the part of Ireland that will be most affected by Brexit is NI, which is part of the UK? Do you really not give a shit that peace is at stake?

Sorry but who cares. I can't stand what the EU has become. It's a corrupt organisation and if Ireland wants to be a member that's up to them. If that causes problems too bad.

Yes Spin (and how the name suits you) - how dare the Irish government and the EU represent their citizens! You might remember that NI voted to remain in the EU and so far our owm government have given sweet FA consideration as to the implications of reinstating a border in Ireland and the impact of Brexit on the GFA.

Britain First are now registered as a political party in NI and were marching in Belfast today. This is very worrying.

www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/handful-of-supporters-turn-up-for-britain-first-rally-in-belfast-1.3178488?mode=amp

Wind your neck back in Spinflight. What is the Taoisesch thinking? Well clearly He is thinking of the citizens of Ireland who are concerned about the political and economic impact of Brexit on the border.

And in one short post you have tried once again to throw in as many barbs and insults to the Irish which says far more about you then it does about any knowledge you think you might have about the Irish situation. I am not sure if your problem is outright xenophobia or an imperiakist hangover but either way it is pretty nasty.

Any bleating from that side of the border will now be met by total indifference here.

And how would that be any different to what happens now and what has happened in the past?

Anyone with any knowledge of the very sensitive Irish peace situation warned, and warned repeatedly, of the risks of Brexit but it fell on deaf ears.

For the last 14 months the situation has either been ignored or all we had was soundbites from uninterested parties (and I include the last Taoiseach, Enda Kenny, in that.) Not a fan of Leo Varadkar's politics but thank God he's come along and only a few weeks in the job he's calling out the clueless Brexiteers and seems to be the only one trying to come up with solutions.

View of the Irish Ambassador to the UK.

www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/02/ireland-uk-ambassador-sadness-brexit

Things heating up in Ireland this weekend.

The Irish Government have run out of patience over the border issue, DUP seem to expect Irish Government to come up with a solution.

Silence from British Government. It's unacceptable.

Bank of America confirms Dublin as location for EU hub

www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/bank-of-america-confirms-dublin-as-location-for-eu-hub-1.3162670

Caroline I never said you were anti Irish but the tone of your posts on this thread hsve been dismissive of the Irish when not patronising. The truth is that Ireland has done well because of the EU bit it is also true that the economic, social and political relationship with the UK has been important and strong and a significant factor. The UK remains one of Ireland's most important trading partners and much of Ireland's exports to the continent travels via the UK. The free movement of people across the border and the rights of people in NI to hold an Irish passport and identify as Irish and European is an important one. Since the GFA, collaboration and cooperation have grown along with respect and friendship. The Irish relationship with the UK is as important as their relationship with the EU. But if there is a hard Brexit the collateral.damage to Ireland will be immense both economically and to the GFA. Finally Ireland does care about what happens to the UK because they are friends and friends don't like to see their friends damaged in an act of self harm.