What happens if Trump wins?

' but he's a huge risk in all sorts of ways - war being one of them'

War against Isis, definitely. Very unlikely against Russia. China and Iran probably not more of a possibility than under the Democrats. All in all, Trump is less hawkish than Hillary.

I don't know what will happen if Trump is elected, but I suspect that the key thing is that not as much will change as people imagine.

I hate the idea, especially with regards to the comical elements that we will likely see in our foreign affairs - Trump and Boris ? . But the US political system as it currently is does not allow the President that much power, it is much more about the balance between Senate and Congress. If the balance of power shifts there, we will see much bigger changes to the politics in the USA. I still hate the idea, but I am not panicking yet.

I can't be the only MNetter who would love to know who claig is irl

Dread to imagine what will happen if Trump gets in - but he's a huge risk in all sorts of ways - war being one of them.

In fact: Stephen King has already had some sort of premonition about him,

"Trump is running for office on a completely different ticket. He is a throwback to a different era, when the US was protectionist and isolationist, which it was for much of its history. It has only been since the end of the second world war that it has championed free markets and taken on the role of global policeman. No question, Hillary Clinton would be much more to Davos’s taste.
...
[Lord] Desai [Labour peer] envisages Trump doing what Eisenhower did in the 1950s, with a big programme of investment in the country’s old and decaying public infrastructure. With interest rates so low, Desai says a capital spending programme of 5% of US GDP would raise $900bn (£680bn), draw in private investment and go a long way to fulfilling Trump’s goals of boosting growth and raising living standards.

So could he really win? You only have to look at the way Clinton has been forced to take a tougher line on trade and promise her own infrastructure package to receive the answer. Few US political experts gave Trump a prayer of securing the Republican nomination when he first announced his run. They take him a lot more seriously now, as well they should, because if the opinion polls are right he will give Clinton a real run for her money."

www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/31/trumps-economic-view-is-far-from-neoliberal-but-it-rides-a-populist-wave

'beyond tedious'

Yes, your attacks are. I have contributed links, articles, quotes and info on Pence and TPP and the real issues that are the battleground between Trump and Clinton and you have contributed next to nothing apart from telling us that you will support the Democrats if Trump gets in.

And another attempt at a real discussion about US politics descends into Claig trumpeting Trump.

beyond tedious

"Trump hits Kaine on TPP: He supports a 'job killer'

Donald Trump on Saturday slammed Sen. Tim Kaine's past support for the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, saying Hillary Clinton's new running mate backed a "job killer."
...
Trump's own running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, previously expressed support for the trade deal, saying it would make Indiana businesses competitive on the world stage. "

thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/288970-trump-hits-clinton-vp-on-trade-he-supports-a-job-killer

"McAuliffe: Clinton would flip-flop on TPP"

edition.cnn.com/2016/07/27/politics/hillary-clinton-trans-pacific-partnership-terry-mcauliffe/

Bit of a shower all round. Hopefully, Pence will keep quiet about it in the VP debate.

'But interesting that your candidate who will blow the establishment out of the water chose what you think is an establishement running mate.'

That is exactly why I posted the link and mentioned what I had heard from US talkshows by Republicans about Pence, that he was Establishment and supported TPP which Trump is against.

'He is right wing.'

He supports the same establishment trade deals that Hillary, until recently, supported and which Democrat McAuliffe recently suggested she would flip over, before he had to recant.

Those are the issues the Establishment cares about and on that they are all in the same club apart from Trump.

I don't know much about him, but from what I have heard on US Trump supporting talkshows, they aren't keen on Pence, they think he is Establishment and will do what he is told.

He isn't establishment. He is right wing. Establishment is now pro gay marriage etc. keep up.

But interesting that your candidate who will blow the establishment out of the water chose what you think is an establishement running mate.

'but I do believe he genuinely believes in everything he espouses'

Many evangelicals don't and nor do many Republican political commentators, and you are a Democrat supporter, so they probably know more about him.

'Claig, are you seriously suggesting that Pence is a closet liberal on social issues? '

I don't know much about him, but from what I have heard on US Trump supporting talkshows, they aren't keen on Pence, they think he is Establishment and will do what he is told.

Claig, are you seriously suggesting that Pence is a closet liberal on social issues?

Have you actually looked at the man's life at all? I don't agree with anything he stands for socially but I do believe he genuinely believes in everything he espouses - and that he has joined with Trump because he thinks it likely to bring him closer to the seat of power so he can implement his conservative principles.

It is really tedious on MN how every discussion about Trump descends into Claig saying "HE WILL GET RID OF THE ELITES, THEY ARE QUAKING" over and over and over and there is no room left for actual real debate.

'Mike Pence just destroyed Trump’s chances of winning over Bernie Sanders voters
...
Trump's choice of Pence, a Swiss-cheese Republican who evokes little emotion — positive or negative — as his running mate was clearly a play to appease an establishment base still in denial that a brash, anti-trade, anti-neocon, anti-kiss-the-Koch-Brothers'-ring reality star has taken over their regular order of pushing money around for the plutocrats.
...
Another Facebook user suggested Trump's pick of an establishment Republican like Pence taints his credentials as an anti-establishment outsider, while yet another vowed that Pence only increased her opposition to Trump."

www.cnbc.com/2016/07/18/

Not good. I would have liked Trump to pick Lt. Col Mike Flynn, but it looks like Trump needed a "career politician" to appease the Establishment.

Oh Claig - still spouting the etsblishment and elites stuff. I still can't understand how a billionaire who was son of a multi-millionaire has ever managed to be one of the people but I guess I just ain't a facist

'The Pence Paradox: Why Did Trump Choose A Top TPP Cheerleader?'

www.huffingtonpost.com/justin-zorn/pence-why-did-trump-choose-top-tpp-cheerleader_b_11034980.html

You'll here the sensible Americans screaming "oh fuck" from this side of the Atlantic, the UK will no longer have the stupidest voters and Canada will have refugee camps

I think Pence was in favour of the elite's free trade deals like TPP etc.

Everyone wanted Trump to pick another anti-establishmentarian so that if anything happened to Trump, the VP could continue the Trump revolution. There is disappointment among some US Trump supporters that Pence is in the Etablishment's pocket and the revolution would unravel if he took over.

A lot of evangelicals are not pleased with Pence because they feel he let them down. They think he may sell them out on issues that they care about. There is a feeling that he is Establishment and may be pretending to back some evangelical positions.

"Evangelicals still peeved over Pence's religious freedom act flip

'It was the worst we've ever been stabbed in the back by a Republican,' says conservative Iowa radio host Steve Deace.

"Evangelicals still peeved over Pence's religious freedom act flip

'It was the worst we've ever been stabbed in the back by a Republican,' says conservative Iowa radio host Steve Deace."

www.politico.com/story/2016/07/trump-vp-pick-mike-pence-evangelicals-225623

I don't know much about Pence, but according to a lot of US Trump supporters, they are not too keen on him and think he is Establishment.

'It's not really the media, is it, though? It's themselves.'

No, I think it is the usual media lies and tricks and Cameron calling UKIP "fruitcakes and closet racists" etc. All tricks and spin to influence the public.

I think the Corbyn "bullying" yarn is also a media concoction with media mates of the political establishment (probably from the same universities and colleges) turning on Corbyn in an orchestrated smear campaign.

Trump says that America will have 4 or 8 good years when Trump overturns all the crap

More likely, America will still have 4 good years, thanks to Obama, before Trump has a chance to mess it up, which means he would probably get a second term, when he runs around like a headless chicken wondering where it has all gone wrong, leaving a big mess to his successor like good auld W.

I have said I don't believe they are "haters" as the media tells us,

It's not really the media, is it, though? It's themselves.

you UK and Canadian MNers can expect a PM from me asking if you have a spare room
Canada is probably better bet. We are falling apart in the UK too. Only problem is that Canada is a bit close to a Trump-led USA for comfort. Might be better off learning Swedish.

''And you've not explained why people like Trump and Farage, who incite racial hatred'

I have said I don't believe they are "haters" as the media tells us, just as I don't believe that Corbyn is a "bully".