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Original poster

Why were the polls so wrong?

30 replies

Georgethesecond · 08/05/2015 17:22

It seems there is some deep seated reason why the polls during the campaign say one thing, but that thing is different from the reality and different from the exit polls (which get it right). The same thing happened five years ago. But why?

OP posts:
ThroughThickAndThin01 · 08/05/2015 18:38

I heard today that pollsters don't like to stick their necks out so if one thought it would end up like it has, because the others weren't predicting it they would stay safe and not predict it either.

Matthew Paris got it right, apparently.

PassTheCremeEggs · 08/05/2015 18:35

Because people realised late in the day that a) they were fearful of the SNP influence in Westminster if tied up with Labour, b) that they didn't have confidence in Miliband as a world leader, c) that in unsure times better the devil you know than that you don't, and d) that we're actually an inherently conservative country so again, in unsure times a lot of people will fall back to that stance. These are the reasons I think anyway.

claig · 08/05/2015 18:19

I think lots of people like to blend in with the crowd and go along with the flow. The media (i.e.BBC, Channel 4) etc pumps out a left wing progressive message non-stop i.e. caring Labour, nasty Tories etc and therefore people keep quiet about what they really think and go with what they think they are meant to say or feel - you can see this on Question Time for example where the audience all applaud progressives and boo UKIP or example. But come crunch time, they vote for what they believe, in the privacy of the polling booth where the BBC can't see them.

If Big Brother was watching, then they would do what they think they are meant to do and what Big Brother wants, but in private they do what they believe.

Jux · 08/05/2015 18:13

I'm not aware of people being afraid to say they vote Tory. IME, most Tory voters seem to be out and proud.

Original poster
Georgethesecond · 08/05/2015 17:25

Is is because people are reluctant to say they vote Tory because of the "nasty party" image?

Do people fool themselves that they will vote one way but when it actually comes down to it they don't? Some kind of human nature fundamental?

OP posts: