The 2015 GE is going to be fascinating. The great significance to Scotland is that the Westminster parliament is the only body clearly capable of legislating for a) Scottish independence or b) a binding referendum on the subject or c) devo-max, federalism, home rule etc. As an aside, I expect some readers will disagree with my view, and as I am very interested in Scots constitutional law I would be interested in those reasons.
I'm only surprised that it has taken this long for the SNP to overtake Labour in the Westminster polls. Even twenty years ago, they were making a better fist than Labour at running stuff at local level.
Kudos also to Alex Salmond for taking the burning of his effigy in Lewes in the appropriate spirit.
I think the Lib Dems will hold at least 3 seats in Scotland. They will hold Orkney and Shetland, and Ross, Skye and Lochaber because the incumbents' majorities are big enough to survive a cull in vote (Fife North East is more vulnerable because Ming Campbell is not standing). They will also hold Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk because the SNP are too far back.
UKIP won't have a big impact in Scotland. Their share of the Euro vote reflects, as always, a signal to politicians rather than an indication of who voters would prefer in government.
However, the big question is undoubtably how many Labour seats the SNP take. This is one of the major questions of the election. I can't help thinking the SNP vote will come back a bit, but who knows? The other question is what effect UKIP will have south of the border. They are clearly able to take votes off all three parties; but probably the Tories more than either Labour or the Lib Dems. I predict that the Lib Dems will hang onto far more of their southern English seats than is generally predicted. With about one exception, the Tories are the challengers for these seats, but UKIP will cut into the Tory vote more than the Lib Dem vote, and Labour's vote will be squeezed. UKIP, for all their support, are simply heading for the same problem that the Liberals have traditionally faced: plenty of support, but not enough to finish first except in a few places. I imagine they might hang onto their by-election gains, the seat where Farage stands, and one other place. Given the unpopularity of the Conservatives and the Lib Dems, I don't think a repetition of the current coalition (or indeed a government with Tories in it) is likely.
So the result I'm expecting at this point is something like this:
Labour 310 odd
Conservative 260 odd
SNP 35 odd
Lib Dem 25 odd
NI unionist parties 9
NI other 8
Plaid Cymru 3
UKIP 4
Green 1
Result: hung parliament: no single party with 50%+1 of the seats.
The obvious outcome here is a Labour / Lib Dem coalition. However, Labour and Lib Dem numbers could easily be lower and the SNP's higher. The SNP ought to be thinking very carefully about what their strategy should be. They will presumably want, at least, further devolution of powers to Scotland and, at most, a second independence referendum. However, their demands will be ignored unless they are able to provide something in return. I expect they would prefer this to be a confidence and supply arrangement to Labour. A formal coalition (or indeed any sort of deal with the Tories) could result in them getting caught up in the mess of a government they do not control, as has happened to the Lib Dems (and I add at this point how very disappointed in how despite having fully two thirds of the Tory vote they have let themselves get pushed around). The other risk they have is either demanding too little and getting blamed for that, or demanding too much, resulting in a second general election being held, and being blamed for holding up the democratic process.
Because I'm in the southern hemisphere, I will be able to see the results come in in the morning. I will probably take annual leave from work.