Do you think the Tories will get a majority in 2015?

I never spout rubbish. I stick to the facts.

'The UK Independence Party is the nation’s favourite political party, a poll for The Independent on Sunday reveals today.'

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-tops-independent-on-sunday-poll-as-the-nations-favourite-party-9069625.html

UKIP are now Britain's favourite party claim you spout some rubbish but that has to take the

A small minority of disenfranchised and/or delusional people are currently saying they will vote for them. That is all.

It's really sad. All these things about stagnating wages, debt, unaffordable housing, rising bills, etc. are true.

However, these things are not caused by immigration. It is a trend which has been happening for three three decades in the West, since the beginning of neo-liberalism.

anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/2011/09/mixed-economy-vs-neoliberalism-uk.html

I get the impression Labour are as frightened of UKIP as Tories.

Throughout last year I had a lot of tradesmen in my house doing various work and the regular conversation turned to the economy and how their income hadn't gone up for a decade and how they felt they were not sharing in economic growth and how they felt the EU and immigration had impacted them directly.

One man in particular who did a lot of very good heating work for me pointed out that after he had taken out his costs such as van depreciation, public liability insurance, wear and tear on tools, accountant his hourly rate was about £10 per hour. Not much more than minimum wage and by the time he had paid tax and NI he was thinking selling his van, doing a bit of scrap and antique dealing on Ebay and claiming housing benefit was a lot better than working. He strongly felt that he was paying rising taxes to pay other people benefits whilst facing falling income due to immigration and he was being crushed in the middle.

His Dad was a solid Labour voter but he had voted for Margaret Thatcher and set up his own business, got training in advanced skills and generally did the right thing. Now he felt that it was all being undermined.He was sure he was going to vote UKIP as indeed a lot of the other tradesmen told me they intended to. These were all people who in the past would have solidly voted Labour.

No that ISN'T what everyone else is doing claig. UKIP's unpleasantness as a political party is only thinly veneered.

'They think disabled children should be euthanised.'

Rubbish. UKIP are now Britain's favourite party. They don't believe in stuff like that and nor do their voters. And they are not fascists. Many of them are ex-Labour and ex-Tories.

Farage is not thick. he wiped the floor with Cleggy from Westminster School, Cambridge University, the University of Minnesota and the College of Europe.

That's what everyone else is doing

UKIP, Ludways?

I'm genuinely lost at the moment, I've always voted conservative but I'm just not sure what to do in the future, I can't vote for either the lib dems or labour as I just can't agree with a damn thing they say. I agree with a lot of the conservative ideas but the ones I don't believe in I fiercely don't agree with.

I'm not wasting my vote but what can I do?

Has he everything ? That is really sad ...I must look into it more...
I kind of liked Frank Fields idea too - give everyone (except the disabled) X amount of money, just enough to live on, no matter how much they earn.
Any work you do increases your standard of living, less opportunity for people who understand the system to fraud/play the system, less people not getting the help they need because they don't understand the system...
And at the same time the people who assess the claims and look for fraud could spend time actually helping people get work...

Yes, but IDS said all that then, and has now totally backtracked into 'people on benefits are lazy and worthless' stereotypes. A massive opportunity to really think afresh about it all and he blew it.

I can see it being another coalition. Disillusionment all round. I am a Labour votes by inclination but wish Miliband would move into a higher gear. It's all very negative at the moment.

I don't really know enough about it or him but actually I have a soft spot for IDS (ready for a bashing)...
He said something way before the last election and it was the first time that I have heard a politician say anything that showed he seemed to really and truly 'get' the problems families who have been unemployed for generations face.
I mixed at school (late 70s/early 80s) with children from mill working families. The mills started closing in the 1930s, brief respite for WWII and by the 60s and 70s it was desperate. Some of these children would be third generation unemployed. They had no chance and it was obvious from them being 11 yo....and that was in the eyes of a fellow 11yo.

The hopelessness, acceptance, dependency, lack of aspirations
And throwing money at them really doesn't help - if anything IME it makes it worse .
Not sure forcing people back to work helps either - especially if there are no jobs -
But supporting them and helping them to do something - anything- can only be good for them and their children's future. I think I'd support needing to do voluntary work for benefits if you were long term unemployed...just to get some structure and purpose back in life... I don't know....

Ignoring poverty just being long term unemployed is bad for your health .....

Good point, unlucky83, Blair was an absolute joke in 1997, but I and millions of others still voted for him because we had had enough of the Tories.

People are saying that Miliband is not as popular as Blair etc, but in 1997 Blair was laughable. He had no experience in government at all and he was a naive spinner who was called "Bambi" by much of the press. He had nothing going for him except that he was not a Tory.

Now, the public has had enough of all of the parties and that is why it is going for Farage. However, I think the Tories will still be more popular than the gruseome gang and failed faces of New Labour.

UKIP being all things to all men - that was true for Blair in 1997. A blind view that 'things were going to get better' - yeah right...
Someone who believed it would be a socialist utopia - nothing they thought was going to happen was in New Labour's manifesto.
Someone else (a teacher) who thought it would mean a chance for the education system to settle and to stop change after change that only achieved disruption - that didn't happen either...
So I wouldn't discount UKIP at all ...

ItsNothingOriginal totally agree, same here - still hanging on to job in charity sector but have had 20% pay cut over last few years, while those who our sector supports suffer with nowhere to go for help.

Mind you, I do think the last term of Gordon Brown went a bit mental, so would be worried about a new Labour government spending recklessly, don't have any confidence in Balls. They need some new faces.

'They have made a few poor decisions...'

So I suppose it depends on what job you do and the services you use on how you feel here. Both DH and I have been made redundant during the term of this government. We both work for charity/support services and now clinging on to any temporary part time work for all its worth. We work very hard and this government has put us into a vulnerable situation financially - seemingly we have been punished for working for the benefit of others rather than for big business

Not only that, the service users we support have lost that service and ARE suffering. Many of them didn't choose to be sick/disabled or badly parented but the current lack of service provision will cost far more in the longer term in terms of custody, ill health etc than it would have done to continue funding the support that we offer. These are what I call 'poor decisions' but they won't be felt for some time to come.

If Labour have been dragging their Scotland 'no' feet, confident they can rest on their need to only get 35% of the vote, laurels - it is time for them to get their coffee together, never mind sniff it.

Claig...when are we going to see Ukip's 2015 policies to see their juggling act of 3-party politics/policies to get votes of your own?

Try as you may. you can not be all things to all people, even if there is no danger of being in power and being held to account - so lets see how many votes are lost there first.

ttosca …..ME to “stop making a fool of myself”?

In a main two party system, either Miliband or Cameron will be the NEXT Prime Minister.

Yet you are either in denial or (despite my best efforts) STILL ignorant to the damage Labour’s policies BY DESIGN, not during a financial crisis, did this country, choosing to concentrate on welfare/benefits issues.

As noble as taking the Labour moral high ground on that issue, despite ever being told exactly how they’d have handled it, have you not grasped that if Labour had been returned to power in 2010, or come back in 2015 with no policies but catchy mantras – this country will end up bankrupt and Labour will end up calling in the IMF as they did in 1976 – and then this country will find DEBTORS will be forcing welfare/benefit cuts to balance this country’s books via THEIR reforms.

So in your parlance; Labour economy wrecking ‘scum' calling in IMF 'reformers’ later, or Conservative reformers, that will be the country’s choice, it is that simple.

Depends on Scotland. Most likely outcomes imo are Lab/Lib coalition or Con/UKIP Coalition. Con needs to absorb Farage now imo and the Tory Right needs to join ranks - there are some fantastic people on the back benches who have been true to their convictions and whose time will come - Liam Fox, David Davis, Richard Bacon, Paul Beresford - amongst others.