By-elections, known for protest voting against the incumbent government are still pawed over by political parties for voting intensions at the next major elections; so is there anything to be learned by this by-election?
The votes of 28.2% of those eligible to vote (versus 54.3% at the 2010 general election) went like this;
Labour 13,261
Ukip 4,301
Consevatives 3,479
Lib Dems 1.176
Monster Raving Looney Party 288
If Ukip was looking to gain ‘working class’ votes, the 11% increase in Labour’s share of a piddley turnout, would not bode too well, but that COULD have been down to Ukip’s dodgy candidate, his backer, and no national or local policies that mattered – in which case coming second was indeed a result.
The Lib Dems even as a party in government must be disappointed as they have been THE traditional by-election party, gathering the ‘protest vote’ parliamentary seats, unlike Ukip, now 6-times second and still don’t have one seat in parliament to keep the lucky candidate’s bum warm.
The Conservatives, the senior party in a coalition government, making tough, necessary and unpopular, in a Manchester constituency they have not held since 1959, it could have been worse. IMO.