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Politics

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FRACKING

134 replies

bonnyclark · 06/09/2013 19:57

My husband and I are very much against fracking, we have been down to Balcombe a few times to support the protest. My husband is a published songwriter and has donated a power protest song, called 'We Will Never Surrender', (Published by World Domination Music Ltd), all profits going towards the fight against fracking. You can download this song at www.nelsonking.bandcamp.com/track/we-will-nver-surrender
If you go into 'Fracking at Balcomber', you will see just how serious the situation is, and how much damage is being done to the planet. If we dont stop this 'assault', our children will never forgive us.
Thankyou.

OP posts:
DoctorTwo · 27/02/2014 07:42

Fracking is not 'relatively clean' by any stretch of the imagination. Each well requires between 27 and 36 million litres of water which they then poison with chemicals we're not allowed to know about because of commercial confidentiality. It releases methane into the atmosphere and into the groundwater. Each well decreases in production by 40% per annum and will not therefore lead to any reduction in gas prices.

Spinflight · 27/02/2014 02:28

Sadly Jellykat that website contains just the sort of dodgy scaremongering that gives the anti-fracking brigade a bad name. The water table does not extend 10,000 feet down, all of the figures quoted are way off ( by an order of magnitude or two ) and the language betrays uncertainty.

Nice graphics though...

Overall fracking is a relatively clean process as viewed from ground level. I can't help but feel that the focus of opposition is flawed and ineffective.

Natalie Hynde has a better take.

flipflop21 · 26/02/2014 22:31

Chrissie Hynde's daughters summarises the problems here:

"In the UK we are told that it will bring energy prices down. Most people do not understand that the exploration wells that we are seeing at the moment are just the start. Unconventional gas will require tens of thousands of wells over huge areas of the country. Production will require pipelines, compressor stations and waste disposal on a massive scale. The tiny exploration companies will be replaced by massive firms when they sell the information and licences they have gathered."

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/26/natalie-hynde-ban-fracking-uk-protest-balcombe

Jellykat · 25/02/2014 21:26

This is why i'm anti fracking
www.dangersoffracking.com

After the scary climate change influenced Winter we've just experienced, we seriously shouldn't piss about exacerbating the situation.

flipflop21 · 25/02/2014 21:06

Flawed air monitoring in the US - would it be any different over here? How would the EA effectively be able to monitor 1000s of wells in the UK. They have not been able to manage flood protection systems effectively - how good is their track record?

www.bellinghamherald.com/2014/02/25/3497241/fracking-boom-spews-toxic-air.html

flipflop21 · 25/02/2014 20:59

Wales too. - www.llantrithyd.com

flipflop21 · 25/02/2014 19:10

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-26271662 - this is the story so far in Lancs.

DoctorTwo · 23/02/2014 15:10

Exxon CEO revealed as a NIMBY! After pushing fracking on others he's objected to a well being sunk in his 'hood.

Spinflight · 23/02/2014 14:19

I would add that the 5% figure as discussed is merely for the drilling sites. If you added in infrastructure, which is inferred but not costed or detailed in my post you'll rather quickly be looking at several times this figure once roads and pipelines are taken into account.

Currently our domestic gas production occurs in the North sea, there is little or no infrastructure on land, or rather infrastructure that hasn't rotted away over the decades. Certainly storage is currently offshore along with various pipelines that we import gas from..

Hence producing the gas is one thing, transporting it to power stations quite another. You can either do this by road or by pipeline - if exports to Europe are envisaged then add in rather a large pipeline running almost the length of the country and a very large gas liquefaction plant. You can see how this adds up in terms of land use... Does anyone really think they're going to route a pipeline through Chipping Norton? Where would the liquefaction plant go that would be needed for exports further afield than Europe?

The liblabcon men cannot open coal or gas power stations, hence the forthcoming energy crisis. Merely seeing the prospective resources figures however does not translate into a solution.

Frankly other solutions exist so fracking should not be discussed in isolation.

Our infrastructure and national grid are designed around coal fired power stations. We still possess billions of tonnes worth of coal beneath our feet yet this industry was destroyed in the internecine warfare between new labour and the unions on the one hand and the tories under Thatcher on the other. Labour indeed closed down more mines than the tories.

The infrastructure is in place in the shape of closed down railway lines to the plants, housing and amenities in the likely mining areas and coal fired plants themselves ( which are about to shut) . Also technology has improved considerably since they were build in the 50s and 60s, modern supercritical boilers are 50% more efficient.

flipflop21 · 23/02/2014 13:43

Spinflight - we agree on somethings then. I do not trust the government. I do not believe the government has our best interests at heart. when they say frack 800m from homes, streamline regulation, let the companies monitor themselves, arrest people who protest peacefully, ignore local objections, don't undertake environmental impact surveys prior to drilling.. I could go on.

Whilst I agree that lots of the anti-fracking message has been sensationalism there is a growing body of scientific evidence which suggests fracking maybe detrimental to human health ( and I am happy to provide details of this). The other aspect is that without the proper regulation fracking certainly will be harmful. Many of the prerequisites which ensure that harm will be minimised remain as recommendations not regulation. It is not good enough.

I would say that earthquakes and geology have blurred the debate rather than blunted it. However for some people the fracking debate has brought home just how corrupt the government is and how it is using local councils, police and other agencies to support it's own agenda.

Spinflight · 22/02/2014 02:38

I don't think 5% is insignificant at all! Quite the opposite. I calculated it because I expected it to be a shocking figure... And was suitably shocked.

Maybe when I said it is up to the locals I was thinking more of how I think things should be run, rather than how they are run. I would be outraged if large scale drilling went ahead just because a few councilors had been bought off, or a few promises not kept. If left up to the North hating eurocrats in Westminster I think we all know what the result would be...

This indeed happened some time ago in my local area, the local councilors promised that if a landfill site were built on our doorsteps then so would a leisure centre and other goodies. Naturally the huge landfill went ahead and nothing else...

Currently the EU imports 40% of it's gas so there is certainly a large market. Indeed when our domestic industrial rates go down Deutsche Bank is one of the largest buyers. We are talking about a lot of gas though, and not in isolation so I would expect prices to drop, if over a long period, considerably.

Your last point is an awkward one as it depends where in the EU they are registered. Domestic companies would pay UK tax but increasingly companies merely offshore their head offices to Ireland or Switzerland as they have the lowest levels of corporation tax. This is why Google and Ebay hardly pay a penny into our tax system, Ireland gets it instead.

Not that our domestic companies have any form of advantage here, look at the North Sea and you'll see plentiful fields operated by foreign firms.

A tick in the box here, a rubber stamp there and next thing you know a tory or labour MP ends up with a £200,000 a year directorship in a foreign firm for 2 days work a month.... That chap at the environment agency had 11 jobs. My he must be a real hard worker!

Back in 2010 46 of the 50 largest companies in the UK had an MP on their board of directors so keeping the snouts out of the trough is highly unlikely.

Whilst I have no scientific or engineering problems with the process of fracking I do have many with the impact and politics of it. If you are from the North and don't have trust issues with our elected scumbags then I'd like to know how you manage it!

I'd say the anti-fracking lobby has a big image problem though. Scientific or engineering based scaremongering is remarkably easy to check out on t'interweb and spot. Whilst evidently vocal and passionate if the facts don't stand up to scrutiny credibility is quickly lost, indeed making the lobby itself look remarkably like the politicians themselves.

If the loud clear message was that we don't trust the London first elected scumbags with our environment and safety then I think the impact would be much larger. Ruin our landscape to pay off the bankers mistakes? Only noticed the North when they found oil etc...

Earthquakes and dodgy geology have, in my opinion, rather blunted what should have been a forthright and important debate...

flipflop21 · 21/02/2014 00:11

Air quality problems now emerging ...
www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/raising-health-air-quality-concerns-texas-fracking-frontier/

flipflop21 · 18/02/2014 20:09

My main question then is : when you say it's up to the locals -how will local people be given the say as to whether they want it or not?

There has been some debate as to whether gas prices will fall dramatically - it will be sold on the European Market to the highest bidder - so we are not likely to see the prices fall as they have in the states.

If the companies that are drilling are not UK owned, will they pay UK tax and how does the effect GDP?

Have attached a link to shale fields in USA. 5% of Lancashire could make it sound insignificant but if you look at how the fields are spread and connected it shows the imact fracking could have.

i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01543/shale2_1543452b.jpg

Spinflight · 18/02/2014 01:11

That is a lot, and you are correct about oil wells.. Indeed some I believe have been producing for over 100 years.

1.25 Bncm would be a good result from a well, equivalent to about 3000 barrels of oil per day for 8 years ( or more likely 6000 bopd dropping off due to pressure decline ). Maybe a tadge on the high side, not all wells would be that successful.

100,000 of those .... About 80 trillion dollars worth at current prices.

Say 10 trillion per decade for 80 years squished and you are looking at a boom to the economy in GDP terms of nigh on 50% nationally.

Of course the price of energy would drop through the floor, as it has in the states, though it isn't a zero sum game. Cheap energy equals cheaper and more efficient industry, well paying jobs for your children and miles cheaper utility bills. There are few downsides to cheap energy. If the history of energy prices in the US holds up to be true then still a good 15% of GDP, enough to put the North in general, and Lancashire in particular back where it belongs at the pinacle.

But yes, the impact of all those wells would be considerable, almost 5% of Lancashire by area, not including infrastructure such as roads and whatnot.

So it's a tradeoff between economic growth and environmental protection which as I'm from Lancashire is close to my heart.

Of course there is also the issue of who would benefit most. The drilling companies or the people.

At which point I can't help but plug UKIP's policy of a sovereign wealth fund from fracking profits. Would easily clear the national debt within a decade by my calculations...

I doubt anyone would ever agree on the correct extent or formulation, some would consider a single well to be too many and others ( especially those lovely politicians living in Kensington who once saw the North on tele and didn't like it) wondering why only 100,000 wells.

At the end of the day it is for the locals to weigh up the costs and benefits. Some costs though are generally unforeseen or involve losing things which cannot be replaced. Wildlife habitats, natural beauty and peace and quiet being three I can think of.

As for the unforeseen I would caution anyone with $ signs in their eyes to think again, Norway's oil boom was spectacularly good for their economy and they wisely invested the profits ( as Tony Benn wanted to do with our North Sea Oil ) with only 4% available yearly and the rest into their sovereign wealth fund.

Some of the downsides however were unforeseen. When a seaside shack would sell to an oil company for over $1m it gradually pushed the locals out. Easier to sell up and let them build a warehouse or whatnot than stay and watch your hometown change beyond recognition.

I want the best for Lancashire and I certainly don't know where the balance should lie.

flipflop21 · 16/02/2014 22:23

Is it just me or is that just too many wells?

flipflop21 · 16/02/2014 15:27

As I recall the figure is based on an average life of a well being 8 years, producing 1.25bcm of gas and extracting 10% of the shale reserves in the UK. The estimates are based on shale well production rates in the US.Of course until exploratory drilling has been undertaken in the UK, the industry cannot (will not?) say with any certainty how many wells will be needed - but drilling just a few will not be economically viable.

Wytch farm on the other hand has been pumping out oil from the same well since 1979. Shale gas/oil wells don't last that long - so you have to drill another and start all over again - with all the noise, trucks, water use and waste production.

Spinflight · 15/02/2014 22:30

More than I thought. By an order order of magnitude or two.

flipflop21 · 15/02/2014 19:59

Spin flight -I think you are holding out on me.

Alan Whitehead (MP) has suggested that we will need around 100,000 wells across the whole country. That's approximately 10,000 pads. They wouldn't all be operating at once. Each well would have an average life of about 8 years. But each pad would require infrastructure, thousands of litres of water and would produce thousands of litres of toxic waste. The landscape will be changed forever. Did you know that aready? Or is that news to you?

There's a bit on faults here: www.davidsmythe.org/fracking/cuadrilla%20sussex%20critique%20V1.pdf

Spinflight · 15/02/2014 17:51

Faults are usually part of the seal.. Remember this is thousands of feet underground, with different strata between the source rock and the surface.

I'm not qualified to say how many lots is or could be. More than you're imagining though I feel...

flipflop21 · 15/02/2014 16:34

Spinflight - "Lots" is very vague - compared to none ten seems like a lot to me - is that what you mean - 10 well pads in the Bowland Shale? 20? How many do you think will be needed in order to make astronomical amounts of money?

The risk of the fire is there because of the fracking - you can't separate the two.

The risks of spillages and blow outs - not a new problem as such - and things can be put in place to mitigate the risk, but the risk to human health is greater when they are drilling in or close to residential areas than when they drill in the middle of the North Sea or a Texan plane...

Re the solid seal - what about geological faults? These can act as conduits to the surface.

ThatBloodyWoman · 15/02/2014 14:24

Love the song.

bonny all power to you.

We need to stop raping the earth to satisfy our greed.

Spinflight · 15/02/2014 14:18

How many football fields? Lots.

Everything is at high pressure thousands of feet down, and gas at these depths is implicitly under a solid seal ( exploration actually looks for potential seals more than it does hydrocarbons) else it would have migrated to the surface millenia ago.

Very true about the risk of fire. A far more rational concern in my opinion than the fracking itself...

flipflop21 · 15/02/2014 11:38

Just saw this and wondered how much harm it could do if the well was say less than a km away from a residential area? Fire started on Tuesday - burnt for at least 72 hours. Maybe well fires have always happened - but wells have not always been proposed in highly populated areas as is now the case.

grist.org/news/just-a-natural-gas-well-exploding-into-flames-nothing-to-see-here/

flipflop21 · 15/02/2014 11:13

Sorry for typos. What's a down hole pump? Thanks