UKIP second in Eastleigh...anyone from Eastleigh care to comment?

No, they aren't a force to be reckoned with in terms of winning seats. They are enough of a force to thoroughly piss off the Tories and maybe let Labour in in marginal seats, thereby scoring an own goal by letting the party into power whose agenda is most different from theirs, thereby pissing off UKIP and their supporters. So it's a win win.

Don't forget lots of countries not very far from these shores have a significant far right presence. At least most of UKIP are only closet racists, they aren't the Front National.

I just wonder, all of those people who talk about immigration being such a big issue, if any of them have any idea how many people we are actually talking about?

Would anyone care to guess at how many people, in the year to June 2012, immigrated to Britain, and how many emigrated from Britain? And therefore what the net figure is?

Go on - without Googling ...

Let us hope UKIP are not mainstream - please no!

His anti-European stance is so inward looking. I do hope tories don't feel they have got to please these ukip protestor votes.

For me immigration is great, had a whole host of fab cleaners and builders/decorators from Eastern Europe have been some of best skilled workforce for my dad's business. Problem is if you are a labourer or a waitress, you may feel less pleased as the pressure on minimum/lower wages is to spiral downwards for Brits. Fewer jobs more workforce - market dictates.

Why should those at top enjoy upward mobility while others see a decrease in living standards? I can see how this troubles Daily mail, worlking class people.

I , however, don't want to discriminate and feel for our poorer Europeans but it is tough on certain sections of society that we have had a rapid influx of immigrants.

Working within Europe, for all to benefit, is the answer - perhaps govts do have to do tough deals now.

I don't think that Eastleigh is a litmus test for much really, the bigger issue is turnout.

This mid term blip is precisely that.

Of course it is not about feeling superior to Polish people. That is a misunderstanding of the reasons why UKIP increased their vote so substantially in Eastleigh.

If lots of Germans were on benefits or competing for low paid jobs, the newspapers and UKIP would be telling us.

claig - have you got the data relating to numbers of Germans on benefits and numbers of Poles on benefits?

It may not be about race, but it's about trying to feel superior to Polish people.

'There are 300,000 Germans living in the UK. How come no one ever lays into them? And those 123,000 French people?'

And that just goes to show that British people are not anti foreigners, but the concern about immigration is essentially economic. The people from Eastern Europe are white, so it is not about race, but about the economic impact.

Isn't that obvious? Because very few of them are on benefits and very few of them are competing for low paid jobs, which is the same for English people in Germany and France.

There are 300,000 Germans living in the UK. How come no one ever lays into them? And those 123,000 French people?
www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/jan/26/europe-population-who-lives-where

Dear helenmumsnet - back down thread,

I understand debate needs to happen but the voice that says I feel really uncomfortable with the tone of Farage is a strong voice - I'm a white, middle class from working class roots leftie. My parents - daily mail readers are screaming about immigration - us lefties feel angry but are not screaming like Daily mail - our anger will come out on threads like this.

Immigration is an issue but Farage does come across as a schmoozy nationalist - I'm uncomfortable with nationalism.

Sequins:

"What I don't understand are the previous immigrants now passing comment on the next wave. You can't seriously oppose other people coming to the same country you did looking for opportunities to better themselves just as you did 10, 20 or 30 years ago."

that is three if not four self-regarding non-sequiters wrapped in one sentence! WHY are lefties so pleased with their own Good Intentions?!

1. you assume immigration to be an inherent good. Who told you immigration is an inherent good and why have you accepted that? What empirical and theoretical grounds do you have, for assuming that immigration is an inherent good?

What about, for instance, an alternative: if the Thatcher government in the 80s had bitten on the demographic bullet (I went to a lecture by Gavyn Davies [then the head of Goldman Sachs] where they KNEW then the population was ageing), and announced: from henceforth, all professionally qualified married couples who produce four or more children will go tax free - or something. Now, that kicks a couple of sacred cows already, the lefties would have screamed and shrieked about cruelty evil and elitism -
but what would it have done to address the current problem????

(by the way - what is the current dilemma Sequins? Can you define it?].

1. assumption number two: you are assuming that the UK has infinite capacity in terms of infrastructure, resources, space and welfare. It doesn't. It really, really doesn't.

1. Conflating the past with the present: historically, there was a huge shortage of labour post-war. So this country NEEDED bus conductors, construction workers, railway workers and other economic group C bodies - but they don't need them now. What IS needed are skilled professionals and entepreneurs. So why didn't we grow our own and raise the birth rate?

1. 'oh lordy, here come the fat slags!' [apparently Viz magazine is the most piercing commentary on the underclass, it is just not noticed because it is in cartoon form] - why are unproductive Sharon and Tracy sitting in ghettos where the government has put them on council estates, whilst immigrants are imported to pick and pack our produce? Why can't people work and be topped up with benefits?

1. New Labour incompetent deluded clowns catastrophically reversed the Conservative laws on marriage from the Asian sub-continent, thereby 'opening the pipeline from Pakistan'. It isn't gearing-up-to-be-a-world-power India that are taking advantage of this - it is the rapidly failing state Pakistan. Exactly what level of education do these people have? Illiterate and unable to speak English? Why do we want the people of a failing state, and why do we owe them anything?

1. You need to wake up. It is my African acquaintances' (especially the low paid and unemployed) dearest wish to get to Britain. Do you understand that they are educated to Grade 3 or 4 like the Pakistani cousins and believe in witchcraft? (Adam in the Thames) Do you understand that African children are traded like commodities because of the levels of child benefits they get? (Victoria Climbie).

7 Which population group of UK is now producing the most babies? What is the eventual impact of this?

I am waiting for the usual screaming and shrieking and accusations of right-wing evil because I have told a few blunt truths. But please think these things through before spouting well-meaning platitudes! Every choice - even caring sharing well-meaning ones - have consequences!

I don't WANT my politicians to be handsome with lovely smiles and speak in soothing bromides (yes, that is you, Tony, and you Nick and you Call-me-Dave). I want them to do what is right, no matter how difficult, for the future long-term well being of this country. The last person to speak difficult truths and insist on implementing them, was Margaret Thatcher.

We get who we vote for! Honestly, how many people have considered the above and the disastrous ideologies that result in all these unintended consequences? Why has Europe not addressed it's declining birth rate, and the economic stresses that have brought it about (which they are now 'solving' with immigration)? Europe generously and caringly 'aids' Palestine so that Palestinians have 10 or more children per family but ignore their own declining birth rate - It's stupid!

Don't people think about history, the lessons of history and long term outcomes?

No, they don't. I am no longer sure democracy is a good idea - most people aren't clever enough to have the vote. The older I get, the more Plato's oligarchy makes sense, really.

oooh interesting thread
i am a second generation half polish voter from eastleigh.i was quite surprised as thought there would be more of a swing away from lib dems due to chris huhne's court case/lying and the coalition with the conservatives but, having said that the lib dems do work hard in the area keeping in touch all year round.their candidate was the only local resident - my son was in the same class at school as his daughter.

my father voted for ukip as a protest pure and simple - he wasn't really aware of their policies.i voted for labour as a hope for change - i couldn't vote lib dem again due to the coalition or the cons and i felt ukip was a vote for another right wing party.

I find them creepy. UKIP.

England getting more insular.

Too many people put too much belief into the crap that the Daily Mail put out every day. So biased!!

It's like Germany in the 30's all over again. "Yes, let's find a scapegoat and I am perfect".

Tansie, Chandlers Ford and Hiltingbury are not in the Parliamentary Constituency of Eastleigh. They are, however, in Eastleigh Borough. CF and Hiltingbury are in the Parliamentary Constituency of Winchester.

What I said was: there are children from outside the catchment who do get into Thornden when places come up. Some of them live in Eastleigh.

I meant Eastleigh (town) which is not in the Thornden catchment, as opposed to parts of Eastleigh (Borough) which are in the catchment.

Others get into Thornden because they have managed to get into feeder schools whether or not they live in the Thornden catchment or even the feeder school catchment, because a place has become vacant and there is no-one within catchment on the waiting list. Which happens. Otterbourne is of course one of the Thornden feeder schools.

None of that is privileged information!

Where is the council estate in the Thornden catchment then?

*Fact is, ALL the parties have anti-immigration policies.

Obviously UKIP are a very good place for protest votes, as, unlike the Lib Dems, they are nowhere near government.*

Agree, and also think none of the main parties are feeling very enthusiastic about Europe at the moment either.

Don't think the British really want Nigel Farage to sort it all out for them though.

I know that 25 years ago I went out with an English born Polish bloke, a PhD student whose parents had fled the war, and was therefore 100% 'English' iykwim, who I met again a month ago thru work (!) who, after much other conversation, told me how 'things' had become trickier for him and his family since the arrival of the 'new Poles' in terms of perception, benefit cheating etc!
So his family were those smudging speak of? As opposed to newer immigrants who, inevitably, came as our first 'new accession' arrivals, were firstly considered novelties and 'hard workers' (like early adopters of anything!) but whose perception among the local populace, with the arrival of their purely economic immigrant compatriots, has turned to Benefit Tourist.

Mind you whoever won last time knew they were unlikely to get in again for a generation as the country was in such a mess. It was a poisoned chalice to win then.

That was what Mervyn King predicted. But thankfully (or not depending on your political beliefs) it seems thanks to the total inadequacy of Labour his prediction may not come true.

Smudging
indeed, but they were Northern Poles - nothing they hate more than the Southern Poles of Shirley !!!
Not joking - dealt with the lot on CIS building West Quay

Tansie
do you not get the Polish edition?
in Shirley they sell equal numbers Polish and English

PS the Thornden catchment is most certainly in the Constituency of Steve Brine
as are bits of Toynbee
but I utterly agree with you about the "places come up"
I'm sure SH make a lot more of their money getting kids into KES than they do THornden

UKIP are not racist, they will be getting my vote.

UKIP do promote a single flat tax rate and merger of tax and national insurance which is a good plan. However there is no much point in splitting the Tory vote. Mind you whoever won last time knew they were unlikely to get in again for a generation as the country was in such a mess. It was a poisoned chalice to win then.

Of 280 places @ Thornden, about 18 got in who weren't in catchment or sibling in catchment! Perhaps your 'when places come up' should be emphasised. How many a year might that be?! Funnily enough, to the best of my knowledge, barring maybe Otterboune that supplies 30 DC a year, the entire rest of catchment is in Eastleigh... Chandlers Ford is in Eastleigh though the sliver more or less to the west of the railway line is in the neighbouring Borough for electoral purposes. Your map, talkinpeace, shows Chandlers Ford is in Eastleigh! And yes, there is council housing in catchment! You sound like you're privileged to different information to the rest of us, Olga!

The Daily Echo in Eastleigh, tbf, isn't Polish.