If there was a referendum on Europe....

Niceguy,

"Lastly we don't need many big businesses to go or many jobs to be affected by import duty before we as a nation have a flipping big problem. Even using your 10%-20% yardstick. Can you imagine the impact to our economy if we lost 10% of our employment or tax revenues?"

Your argument assumes that 100% of companies are threatening to move their HQs. It is probably 10-20% that are threatening, and of that 10-20%, 10-20% will actually move. That makes between 1 and 4%. And you assume that there will be no job creation due to less red tape around employment, free trade with the rest of the world and a far more open agriculture and fisheries sector. You are simply scaremongering.

Amyboo,

"The fact that the EU has changed since we joined in 1973 has been supported by the very people that the British electorate voted for ffs."

The only parties to give us a choice re the EU have been special interest parties such as UKIP, who are not a credible choice. The political parties have collaborated (mainly due to self interest, as I mentioned above) to NOT give the electorate a meaningful say over Europe.

Ufortunately they all do it.

I am actually pro referendum, as I am confident the Brits will vote to stay in. So why leave it til after the election? why should ie be part of the manifesto? Bblackmailing the country by saying vote me in and you get a voice on the EU is cynical, and the economy will now be even more unstable until the issue is resolved once and for all.

This thread makes me sad. So many people who see so little benefit from our membership of the EU. So much misinformation being bandied around.

Funnily enough, the whole principle of "representative democracy", such as we have in the UK, means that you elect people to office who will act in your interests. If you don't think they're doing so, don't vote for them - vote for someone else. The fact that the EU has changed since we joined in 1973 has been supported by the very people that the British electorate voted for ffs.

I agree that some reform should be made in the EU governance structure, but comments about the Parliament only being able to be the puppet of the Commission, or all our UK taxes going to pay for poorer nations, are frankly just nonsense. The EU costs British taxpayers just ?0.75 a day, that's about 50p, and the EU budget has actually dropped as a percentage of GDP in the past few years. Take a look at this for some proper FACTS about the EU and its spending/policies:ec.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/blog/index_en.htm There are fewer EU civil servants working in Brussels than there are employed by the city of Birmingham for example.

In a way a referendum will be good as at least it will give people the chance to put correct information out there, but I for one would not be happy if we left. As a foreign languages graduate I have been able to fully take advantage of the wonderful opportunities offered to me by the EU, such as studying abroad, living and working abroad, border free travel, cross border shopping - and all of these benefits for me and my family. Membership of the EU goes much further than just agriculture and fisheries....

I totally agree with niceguy. We are an attractive base for business but not if we withdraw from the EU. Saying a referendum will take place in 5 years time is like hanging the Sword of Damocles over the UK. "Will we stay in / will we come out?" uncertainly could be the death knell for an ailing economy IMO. And our good relationships within the EU (and we have many) will turn to dust.

PetiteRaleuse - tell me which politician of modern times has not put their own "quest for power far ahead of the good of the country"? And in fact I think Blair was far, far worse.

I'm probably going to sound a bit naive here, but I think that we will need some better transparency around numbers to enable a decision.

It's very easy for non-EU proponents to throw around the immigration to the UK numbers and cost to our state handouts, and cost per capita of running the EU without looking at the opposite side. For instance the benefit per capita to our economy from free trade, and the number of Brits that very easily migrate to live in countries like France, Spain and Cyprus.

I'm for a referendum, but I want better facts to make an informed choice.

I shudder at the prospect of 6 years of that Farage man pontificating on the horrors of the EU.

I agree with larrygrylls. The EU was supposed to be about trade - and now look at it.

No one (well, about three people probably) signed up for pan-European rules/laws. Some of these (mobility of workers, benefits offered) very seriously impact on Britain.

Members of the European Parliament and other employees have ridiculously generous benefits and no one seems to police them. It is clearly a very cushy number as existing employees are desperate to shoehorn their family members into the organisation. Here we have Neil & Glenys Kinnock flying the European nepotism flag and in Italy (of which I have a little knowledge) it is many people's dream to work there and sadly employees do not seem to be recruited on merit.

If only it were a joke Petite!

Personally I think DC is a boy in a man's world. Our approach at the moment seems to be if you don't let us play the way we want to then we'll take our ball home. That's never a mature attitude.

It may well be that under DC we end up going from the UK as a core member of the EU to England billy no mates.

The only silver lining is that he's said several times that the referendum would be offered 'under a conservative government' and that at the moment looks unlikely.

Language, inertia and access to all the facilities of London will play a big part in keeping them here.

I'm sorry but English is the most commonly spoken language and the defacto second language in most of the world. I travel a lot for my work and language isn't a big deal. Any professional level job, the employee will be able to speak practically perfect English. Hell, I have a few dutch colleagues who can speak English better than most Brits!

And you are banking on inertia to keep big business here??? Seriously?

London is the financial capital of the world because of our timezone (we're slap bang in the middle), our friendly laws AND free access to the EU markets. If we removed that we'd see banks all wanting to establish a new European HQ so they can continue to trade in Euros. Their timezone is only +1 so no biggie. And English isn't a big deal either.

Lastly we don't need many big businesses to go or many jobs to be affected by import duty before we as a nation have a flipping big problem. Even using your 10%-20% yardstick. Can you imagine the impact to our economy if we lost 10% of our employment or tax revenues?

This is a bloody joke, a cynical political ploy to win votes but at the same time placing the political and financial stability of the UK in great danger.

Cameron is shameful, and the most dangerous PM in modern times, placing his own quest for power far ahead of the good of the country, time and time again.

I hope that the vote will keep us in the EU, even though I agree reforms need to be made in the EU.

I dont know how the vote would go.
Depends a bit, like another poster said, whether they would smudge the question.

I think there are a lot of undecided voters.

Sometimes people opt for the status quo, because they are afraid of change, and the uncertainty of change.

For me, a big question has always been peace.
If we left, is there more likely to be a war.
Probably not, if it was just us that left?

Of course the USA looks to build relationships in all areas of the world too. But in terms of Europe we are still their closest ally and Germany or France would love to step up and take that role. They will if we are not in the EU.

Our relationship with the U.S is not "so strong". That is a useful lie that the U.S use to keep us onside when they go to war or need a voting ally in the U.N. As Obama said recently "the U.S is a Pacific nation". They are reorienting their military and economic aims to take advantage of the Asian growth story.

Tell me where we gain from this fantastic "special" relationship?

It's much better to be on the inside pissing out in my opinion. We should definitely stay in the EU. There are lots of problems with Europe: the bureaucracy, the need to get the agreement of so many members means there are lots of political fudges, the Euro. But it's still the best political club for us to be in an we are too insignificant in world to go it alone.

Our relationship with the USA is so strong because they see us as the most useful ally inside the EU. If we were outside the EU they would find a friend who is inside and we'd be sidelined by the most important global power.

FlatpackHamster,

What great posts!

All the political parties keep promising referenda and then backing away from them. To be honest, why does the referendum have to be next parliament (assuming the Cons get re-elected)? I don't trust any promise a parliament ahead. My betting is that it will be delayed for one reason or another and then finally forgotten.

The EU has been a complete con trick. I remember my parents explaining the first referendum to me about the common market when I was about 10 years old. It was all about free trade. It had nothing to do with common laws, common currency or tax harmonisation. Every constitutional change since 1975 has been allowed through via party co-operation. When you look at how many ex political bigwigs from every stage of the political spectrum go on to very highly paid tax free jobs in Europe, it is easy to see the incentives of the political class. However, for everyone else, it seems to be an expensive bureaucracy in exchange for very nebulous benefits.

People like to compare us to Norway or Switzerland. The reality is we are nothing like either of them. Singapore and Hong Kong do very well on their own, as does the U.S. However clearly one is so big to be a continent and the others are so small that they can exist purely on finance and a couple of other industries. I cannot see a good analogy to the UK but I am sure that we are big enough and rich enough to negotiate decent trade agreements with the rest of the world.

It would be really interesting to read some unbiased analysis of the economic pros and cons of leaving Europe. The reality is that what big business says has to be heavily discounted. The relocation of financial service staff due to the 50/45% tax, deferred bonuses etc has probably happened at 10-20% of the rate threatened and I suspect a similar discount rate should be applied to companies moving their HQs into mainland Europe. Language, inertia and access to all the facilities of London will play a big part in keeping them here.

Finally, this is not just about economics. Do we want to be absorbed into a superstate (and we are 70% there already) or do we want the oldest democracy to remain an independent democracy and Westminster laws to have meaning? There is a huge democratic deficit within the EU (which is why Machiavellian types like Mandelson love it so much). Until that is remedied (and I cannot see how it really can be), I want to be out of Europe.

What would we lose? Which markets would be closed to the UK and which industries would be affected?

Our entire approach is basically to assume we can leave the EU but remain in the free trade club like Norway/Switzerland. This assumption is dangerous because the other EU members will not actually want this at all and we're relying upon two very poor politicians to deliver this. Plus this sort of cherry picking is exactly why the other EU countries are pissed off with us.

If we leave the EU and don't stay a member of the free market then our exports would be subject to duty. This would make our goods/services more expensive and put consumers off buying them. That translates to less jobs.

Regardless of if we stay in the euro market, over time we would find a lot of important industries relocating their head offices to mainland Europe. Especially to tax havens like Luxembourg. They may choose to keep a small UK HQ but the tax revenues and many jobs would slowly trickle towards the EU.

Lastly I really don't understand the idea of not wanting to abide by EU rules....so we'll quit.....except we want to stay sort of in the club....but then we no longer can influence setting of any future rules.....

That's not a strategy....that's just cutting off our noses to spite our face.

It is the never-ending power grab that worried me the most. The way its going in another 20 years the EU will have become the Federal States of Europe, with all the countries run by Brussels and only very minimal governing powers given to each member state.

I don't like the kind of democracy that Brussels approves of and although I can see there are benefits of trade and stability, I don't want to give up the right to run my own country through the kind of democracy (and accountability) we have in the UK. When the expenses scandle happened, there were an awful lot of EU members ridiculing our horror at the corruption of our politicians. That makes me want to be ruled by Brussels even less.

Interesting article in today's Telegraph about how closely linked British and German exports are. Britain has overtaken France as the primary trade partner within the EU.

www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/9816643/Britain-becomes-Germanys-biggest-trade-partner-as-Berlin-London-pact-deepens.html

The EU now makes up just 37% of Germany's exports, compared to 46% a decade ago. It's becoming less and less economically relevant to Germany.

juneau

I would vote to repatriate certain powers to Westminster (particularly regarding immigration, benefits, working hours, etc).

I wouldn't vote to withdraw from Europe.

You don't have that choice. What do you think the EU is, some trading organisation you can pick and choose the rules in?

The EU is a government. It rules us, and it's going to keep expanding its powers until Westminster has no power except to vote its MPs pay rises.

You're either in or you're out. There's no in-between stage.

We get a lot from Europe as well as giving a lot and many of the foreign companies based in the UK are here because of ease of trade with the EU. If we withdrew ourselves it would be a disaster for the UK trade-wise. I'd like to see some economics boffin put a figure on what it would cost us - but it would be a lot.

What would we lose? Which markets would be closed to the UK and which industries would be affected?

We'd lose a lot of our clout in terms of world politics too.

Membership of the EU loses us influence. We're going to have to give up our permanent seat on the UN Security Council to the EU. We've already lost our independent position on trade to the EU.

I would vote to repatriate certain powers to Westminster....
...I wouldn't vote to withdraw from Europe.

Yes, I would do exactly the same. Except the EU isn't likely to let us to repatriate powers. And the main reason is that if they let us do it, then other countries will also want to cherry pick the bits they want to abide by too.

So we can vote all we like but the EU may tell us that we either put up & shut up or we are welcome to go. And the way we've positioned ourselves we may end up going.

I would vote to repatriate certain powers to Westminster (particularly regarding immigration, benefits, working hours, etc).

I wouldn't vote to withdraw from Europe.

We get a lot from Europe as well as giving a lot and many of the foreign companies based in the UK are here because of ease of trade with the EU. If we withdrew ourselves it would be a disaster for the UK trade-wise. I'd like to see some economics boffin put a figure on what it would cost us - but it would be a lot. We'd lose a lot of our clout in terms of world politics too.

The figure often quoted is 3 million jobs.

In very round figures, 80% of our GDP goes into goods and services for the UK. The other 20% are exports, split roughly equally between the EU and the rest of the world. (Actually this may overestimate the exports to the EU due to the "Rotterdam effect" - the fact that quite a lot of the exports nominally to the EU are then just forwarded on to places outside.) The proportion to the EU is falling.

So that makes sense of you assume the number of jobs is proportional to these percentages. Total workforce around 30 million, so 3 million associated with trade with the EU.

Note though that it's jobs dependent on trade with the EU, not on membership of the EU. By the same token there are 6-7 million jobs in the EU dependent on trade with the UK.

The 3 million jobs figure was originally arrived at by an economic research institute, doing work for a pro-EU lobbying group which then claimed that the jobs were at risk if we left. This misinterpretation so incensed the director of the research institute that he called it "pure Goebels".

www.democracymovementsurrey.co.uk/dyk_impactonjobs.html

It's unlikely that our leaving the EU would lead to any kind of trade war with the EU as we import more from them than they from us, and if Mexico can negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU then so can we.

I agree. The EU cannot 'kick us out'. Noone has suggested that. But the issue is one of credibility. We're the ones hinting about possibly leaving. Merkel and the rest would be crazy to let us cherry pick as it opens the floodgates for everyone else. So then we're left with either following through and leaving or looking silly after getting our bluff called. If the latter happens then whose going to take the UK seriously at the next EU meeting?

As for all the talk of having a Norway option, I can't see why this helps us at all. Yes we get certain powers back. We'd still have to stick to all EU trade laws & standards. But we can no longer help define those rules. Isn't that the exact opposite of what we intended? ie. to have more control?

We've had years & years of the press telling us how much money EU bureaucrats are wasting. How immigrants are coming to steal our jobs and squat on our benefits. What we are not seeing are articles explaining how many jobs depend on the EU.

I read somewhere that 52% of our exports go to EU countries. So it seems to me a HUGE gamble to our economy that we can negotiate a Norway style membership at the risk of having EU import taxes slapped on our exports.

Goodnight.