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Politics

When Eurozone collapses, what next? (feels more when than if)

157 replies

Hamishbear · 19/06/2012 10:01

Posted on Chat but felt this may be a better place.

So, the bailouts can't continue indefinitely, what happens next?

What's the best case scenario and how will it affect us in the short term and long term?

OP posts:
Hamishbear · 19/06/2012 10:59
OP posts:
claig · 19/06/2012 10:56

'The Greeks should have looked at Iceland, they let the banks collapse.'

The mainstream Greek political elite, the establishment, are all part of teh European project and quite a few of their ministers are ex-bankers. They got the Greek people into this mess, and they will not let banks collapse, since bankers call the shots.

claig · 19/06/2012 10:53

Greece is 2% of European GDP. The Euro won't collapse, it will in fact get stronger. I think this is happening to put the frighteners on other countries and the Greeks are being made an example of to bring other countries into line. I think the objective is a closer fiscal union, with budgets subject to Brussels centralised control. It is a way to ensure that countries sacrifice some more of their sovereignty. I think the heat is being turned up, but when countries play ball, then the heat will be turned down again, and the Euro will rise even stronger.

The European elite want a closer financial union. Cameron and Osborne also want a closer union for the Eurozone countries. Cameron said something like it is make or break. Of course, it will be make and not break. Boris Johnson seems to be against this closer financial, but he is not at the heart of power.

ASillyPhaseIAmGoingThrough · 19/06/2012 10:48

The Greeks should have looked at Iceland, they let the banks collapse.

LittenTree · 19/06/2012 10:46

I don't get though what does happen if Greece leaves? 'The others' would be the PIIGS countries, wouldn't they? Those who should never have been allowed into that club in the first place, in fact!

Why would allowing Greece out, to reprint the drachma and thus allow Greece to devalue itself til it became competitive again? It could equally be the peso or the punt!

Hamishbear · 19/06/2012 10:31

I don't pretend to fully understand but it feels to me we're on the edge of a precipice. Nigel Farange puts it better than I can, will try to find the link.
I can't see how it is sustainable. What are the incentives you mention? If Greece does leave and others follow, what then?

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CogitoErgoSometimes · 19/06/2012 10:27

Bailouts will probably change in nature rather than stop all together. I was listening only yesterday to some alternative, more direct ways to get funding into various countries. Sounded interesting. There are big incentives to keep the Eurozone project together and I suspect that, once things stabilise a little, EU leaders will start looking at a Roosevelt-style 'New Deal' inter-European work creation. Short-term it'll be more difficult to sell into the EU from Britain because they can't afford our goods and the exchange rate is working against us. Longer-term is less easy to predict but 'collapse' is premature.

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