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Politics

When Eurozone collapses, what next? (feels more when than if)

157 replies

Hamishbear · 19/06/2012 10:01

Posted on Chat but felt this may be a better place.

So, the bailouts can't continue indefinitely, what happens next?

What's the best case scenario and how will it affect us in the short term and long term?

OP posts:
WetAugust · 20/06/2012 22:23

Up to a point Claig. That's the Michael Moore theory - that Govts want to keep us all in a state of heightened anxiety to make us more pliable.

But the evidence is the way the markets are reacting to all this and the (so far limited) runs on banks. That's not contrived by politicians.

I wish the whole Euro would just implode and take the whole rotten EU edifice down with it - really soon.

claig · 20/06/2012 22:19

It's the old sword of Damocles trick. The media plays that card so often, you'd think the public would remember the last one, but the spin meisters know that with all the bread and circuses, the public will have forgotten the last one by the time they roll out the new one.

claig · 20/06/2012 21:56

WetAugust, don't forget that some of this is classic theatre. Newspaper headlines scream panic, the BBC interviews politicians and speaks of impending doom and gloom and the odd polar bear for good measure, and the public and any reluctant politicians go along with the plan.

Everytime there is a G20 summit, there is usually some sort of economic crisis in order to make sure that the politicians come up with the right deal, the one that was wanted all along.

In the same way, just as the Euros start, the BBC does an expose of racism, which it failed to do months before. And in the same way, when there is a catastrophic climate change sustainability conference, the BBC often reports on some new found catastrophic climate news discovered by catastrophic climatologists which pushes the intended agenda along and forces any reluctant politicians, who don't quite buy the scheme, to buck up their ideas and get with the plan.

Maryvivienne · 20/06/2012 21:53

I think there are certain faceless people like bankers doing what is best for them, not best for the majority of the people. How can staying in the Euro be good for Greece when it is in the turmoil it's in. And I heard just yesterday lots of people won't be holidaying there because of this and that will make things infinitely worse as the tourist trade is their main industry.

WetAugust · 20/06/2012 21:44

It's being reported that the big bazooka may not be employed after all.

Hardly surprising as the German Supreme Court ruled the exerise was unconstitutional.

Expect the Spanish bond market to raise spectacularly again tomorrow.

This is now way beyond a farce.

niceguy2 · 20/06/2012 21:23

It's not Greece the German's are worried about. The impact in real terms to the German economy of Greece leaving is negligible.

The problem with Greece cannot default without leaving the Euro. If Greece leaves the Euro then markets will get REALLY jittery and that will have more impact on Germany. In addition the dominos start to fall and next in line will be Spain then Italy...maybe even France.

Germany also cannot be seen to let Greece off the hook either. That sends out the wrong signal and next Ireland & Portugal will want to know why they can't simply forget about their debts either.

The solution is fiscal union which Germany would effectively underwrite the debts of all these struggling nations. That is understandably not medicine the German's want to take. From their point of view they practiced prudence whilst the good times rolled unlike their European cousins. So they really don't want to pay the price for the other's excesses.

MammaBrussels · 20/06/2012 21:15

Argentina defaulted in the 1982 Latin American debt crisis. There's all sorts of talk over here, it's very difficult to see the wood for the trees at the moment, far too many 'what ifs' to see a clear picture of this crisis.

WetAugust · 20/06/2012 21:04

Disagree. Isn't Argentina who defualted several years ago represented at the G20 as one of the world's Top 20 economies?

By staying in the Euro Greece will be shackled for decades to come.

noddyholder · 20/06/2012 21:01

There is a good chance greece would eventually be better off staying in they will be in debt forever and seen as 2nd class.

WetAugust · 20/06/2012 20:43

What Greece may owe Germany would be only peanuts.

What the Germans are scare of is that if Greece leaves, reverts to the drachma and her economy recovers (as did Argentina's) it will make the others also consider leaving - and the Euro is supposed to be irreversible i.e. once you're in you're in for good.

Maryvivienne · 20/06/2012 19:06

Somebody told me that Germany doesn't want Greece to leave the Euro because a lot of the money Greece owes is to Germany and they would lose out more if Greece left than if they stayed. This seems a bit simplistic to me.

MammaBrussels · 20/06/2012 19:03

*companies

MammaBrussels · 20/06/2012 19:03

Scaevola most government gilts are sold to financial institutions like pension funds and insurance company

scaevola · 20/06/2012 18:15

"Who is doing all the lending to governments?"

Anyone?

kissmyheathenass · 20/06/2012 15:00

amillionyears, I think power and money are so inextricably linked. They want both.

"Whomsoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce" James A Garfield, US President

amillionyears · 20/06/2012 14:33

What I can never get my head round,is,if the elites are doing this,are they more interested in power or money.i know its easy to say both,but I always wonder,if pust came to shove,which do they choose?

claig · 20/06/2012 13:42

The real power is money at the end of the day. He who pays the piper calls the tune. Germany is imposing austerity on Greece in return for bailing Greece out. I think that donors to parties have an influence on party policy. Stephen Byers spoke of 'cabs for hire', with respect to some lobby groups. Think tanks are funded by people who possibly influence the direction of research. The IMF dictates political policy in a country that it lends money to. Technocrats have been installed in Italy and the elected leader, Berlusconi, has gone. Bankers call the tune in some countries.

The really rich and powerful call the tune, and some of the policies we see in practice are a result of their wishes.

claig · 20/06/2012 13:33

Limits to growth is what austerity is all about. It is a means of stopping people's growth and expansion. That is what the real hidden elite want. That is what really drives some of the political policies that we see enacted and which will be enacted over the coming decades.

claig · 20/06/2012 13:29

I take it back, the BBC does mention that it emanates from 'Club of Rome' circles

news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_9729000/9729574.stm

claig · 20/06/2012 13:25

Hamish, we know that in business, in the past, and maybe still now, there have been cartels, where companies made alliances and agreements to price goods at certain levels, which would aid the profitability of cartel members. We know that some companies applied restrictive practices in cartels and prevented competition from being free and fair and prevented other companies establishing a foothold in the market. We know that some comapnies have been taken to court for this and lost their cases. We know that the EU regularly look at companies to see if they are carrying out restrictive practices.

People are also like companies, they also collaborate to meet objectives. We know that some think tanks and political movements are funded by extremely rich and powerful people and not by the public.

Did you hear Radio 4 Today's programme yesterday about the green 'limits To Growth' report in the 1970s, which the BBC didn't say was funded by the elite Rockefeller backed 'Club of Rome' organisation. The 'Limits to Growth' report was teh blueprint for much of today's green movement. It was funded by elite people, not by Mrs Jones og number 42. The sceptic who had studied all the doom-mongering predictions of the report said that most had not come true. The report had said that we were running out of many resources, and in particular, mercury, which might run out in 10 years' time. But the sceptic showed that most commodity prices had decreased rather than increased which would not be the case for rare resources, and we still have mercury.

Doom and gloom reporting suits someone's agenda. The news on your TV suits someone's agenda. The question is whose and why?

amillionyears · 20/06/2012 13:23

I think I agree with claig,13.05pm

Hamishbear · 20/06/2012 13:12

Yes perhaps, but if so these are individual people with their own private plans. They may be able to influence others but IMO they are not in sinister cahoots trying to push through a plan to overturn the world as we know it.

People are essentially selfish, generally they want to become or remain rich and powerful if they have the means to do so. It's that simple.

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claig · 20/06/2012 13:05

'IMO things are more disjointed and generally badly thought through than any of us imagine'

I don't believe that. That is what they tell us. Look at teh influence that Murdoch had over governments. His voice weighed more than tens of thousands of voters. Campbell even said something like he allegedly asked Blair to speed up the war.

There are people far more powerful than Murdoch, and they aren't politicians, and they have agendas and plans they want implemented.

amillionyears · 20/06/2012 13:01

i suppose the point I am trying to make is,you do want your posts read ,and maye influence 10 people,or 1000 people.
All politicians,and I presume a whole load of civil servants etc,have training in delivering their message.If you are not bothered,that is up to you.I myself would quite like to read your posts,and maybe be influenced by them,but I have seen you write like this on other threads as well,and I'm afraid i just skim them.

claig · 20/06/2012 13:01

I haven't got the anger, but I am glad that some people do have enough anger to protest, to march, to march for saving their pensions, for doctors to go on strike for pensions, for disabled people to march against cuts and for trades unions to resist cuts.

I am just a cynical observer, I can do nothing, but people who get angry and march and demonstrate are the heroes who do do something to resist.

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