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Politics

When Eurozone collapses, what next? (feels more when than if)

157 replies

Hamishbear · 19/06/2012 10:01

Posted on Chat but felt this may be a better place.

So, the bailouts can't continue indefinitely, what happens next?

What's the best case scenario and how will it affect us in the short term and long term?

OP posts:
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amillionyears · 23/06/2012 07:10

Agree that computers are not private and never will be.
Heck,even i know a hacker,and I am sure I could be led to several more.
Its pretty rife imo.

Look at LinkedIn.All 6 and a half million users got hacked,and it didnt matter if you had the safest password in the land!

claig · 23/06/2012 06:59

It will be worth listening to the news next week. It is going to be historic, and it will lift the doom and gloom.

'Eurozone leaders vowed to plough on with the Robin Hood tax plans alone yesterday as they declared that a Brussels summit next week will be a ?defining moment? in EU history.'

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2163461/Britain-spared-EU-bank-tax-European-leaders-push-ahead-plans-drop-demands-nations-included.html

rowingdowntheriver · 23/06/2012 06:28

My interpretation of the original OP is what will the Macro-economic effect of the Eurozone collapsing (rather than what the underlying political agenda is and the political outcome). I don't know the answer but am interested in what others think it will be.

In my mind the following things are likely to happen if one of the PIIGs leaves the Eurozone (in no particular order!)

  • inflation levels get to unmanageable levels due to the amount of cash printed as through easing (in both the UK and the rest of the Eurozone) - this will happen / is happening anyway
  • inflation in the UK and Eurozone further weakens currencies
  • export business from UK and Eurozone countries improves due to weakened currency
  • Import costs increase, due to weak currency, so things such as fuel and food start to feel very expensive
  • Euro strengthens to some extent following the exit of a weaker country (to recognise a stronger set of core constituents) this is counteracted by the uncertainty in the market around the future of the Euro
  • the country that leaves the Eurozone will go back to their pre-Euro currency and find banks / governments reluctant to lend to them so their cost of borrowing will increase
  • that country will either accept they have no way to finance future infrastructure projects necessary to boost the economy and don't invest so recovery takes a long time OR they print more money to invest but see extortionate levels of inflation following this
  • in the very long term that country will benefit from outside investment as a result of their weakened currency
  • In the longer term the remaining Eurozone countries too will see increased exports which in turn will improve the economy and eventually return the Euro to return to a stronger equilibrium (if they / we can ever recover from the impact of the huge amount of cash injected into the system from quant E)

Any economists out there than can point out the errors on my assumptions or add to the list of future outcomes?!

Hamishbear · 23/06/2012 05:25

As much as I would love to, Claig, I am afraid I with MoreBeta and don't share your optimism. I don't see how this rosier/positive Euro scenario is sustainable long term.

OP posts:
ASillyPhaseIAmGoingThrough · 22/06/2012 23:33

Cameras everywhere, Google, mobile and.email not private...

landahoy · 22/06/2012 23:30

liberty - freedom

  • in our choices, purchasing power, education choices, work choices,

but also, as I mentioned before, in what to believe, as media will still try to push information to the masses, who wont always have a filter to decide what is real or hype/spin

landahoy · 22/06/2012 23:28

meaning, privacy of identity, and from that, your choices as an individual

landahoy · 22/06/2012 23:28

I would agree

Identity being the only thing to cling to, in a sea of fools, in a way

claig · 22/06/2012 23:22

Individual liberty, the liberty of the common people, not the corporate fat cats. There are no limits for them.

landahoy · 22/06/2012 23:19

individual liberty? or liberty in the business world?

claig · 22/06/2012 23:13

I agree with ASilly, that liberty is under threat. Under New Labour our civil liberties declined and it nearly came about that all citizens would one day have to carry an ID card with all their DNA data on it. Boris Johnson said he would shred his and feed it to his children on their cornflakes and it didn't happen, but someone will probably bring it back one day on the future.

landahoy · 22/06/2012 23:08

No, ASilly, liberty is always there.

Media would love us to believe we have no liberty left, that the Eurozone is broken, that people are up the proverbial creek

The difference is:
You have a choice- do you accept blindly what some journo has told you?
Do you accept what politicians tell you, blindly, letting their spin darken your future plans?

I choose not to. It's hard not to believe the hype right now, but it will be worth it in the end, to remember that growth is possible. There are a lot of brains working behind the scenes to find the best possible solution, and media will only be told snippets, from which they will make up the rest.

claig · 22/06/2012 23:05

I agree, landahoy. I like Merkel, I think she will do the right thing. You only have to look at how Germany has provided for their people and not their bankers, by creating a manufacturing powerhouse. Germany is not at the mercy of a banking elite.

ASillyPhaseIAmGoingThrough · 22/06/2012 23:03

Liberty has trickled away.

landahoy · 22/06/2012 23:03

Plus Merkel won't allow the English elite to dictate too much, she has a balance in mind, and a plan that is careful and logical. I know she will not allow struggle to continue. I trust her. Strange, but true.

claig · 22/06/2012 23:01

ASilly, don't believe that type of talk. That is what the media pumps out to frighten the people, but it won't happen because the elite are not prepared to go over the "tipping point".

claig · 22/06/2012 22:59

The plan of the elite is probably to trade liberty for prosperity, and so the people struggle on.

ASillyPhaseIAmGoingThrough · 22/06/2012 22:59

That's great if growth will begin,I was worried we were heading for a depression like 1930's.

landahoy · 22/06/2012 22:58

Undemocratic union, perhaps more apathetic?

claig · 22/06/2012 22:58

But as they are saying now on Newsnight now, the result will be an undemocratic union, so the battle for liberty, freedom and justice never ends. The torch is passed from one generation to the next and each generation has to fight the same fight.

claig · 22/06/2012 22:54

Yes, it is a battle for the soul of the planet, and it all depends who gets the upper hand.

landahoy · 22/06/2012 22:51

Claig, there will always be those who don't want growth/positivity/optimism

claig · 22/06/2012 22:49

Actually, I'm not sure if she was in teh Ukraine or Poland for the match, so I am probably wrong on that.

claig · 22/06/2012 22:48

I like Merkel. She is great. She was at the Euros today, she didn't boycott the Ukraine. She was clapping and cheering every goal. She is going to ease the brakes and deliver economic growth.

claig · 22/06/2012 22:45

Yes, landahoy, it is very good news and is a message to the "markets" and to us, the people, that growth is on the way. Unfortunately, there are some who do not want that growth and there will be a short-term "market" reaction to try to prevent it, but it will be in vain.

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