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Original poster

Scotland. Independent?

106 replies

Solopower · 26/05/2012 20:48

Do we need a thread on Scotland?

Here are some opinions - what do you think?

Ian Bell: www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/a-vote-for-independence-not-for-salmonds-policies.17698693
The Scottish people should have the right to choose.

Iain McWhirter: www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/why-snp-has-to-work-to-win-round-scunnered-scots.17677823
Most people have other priorities just now and are too tired to care.

Humza Yousaf
www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/may/26/scottish-independence-labour?newsfeed=true
The Scottish Labour Party should back independence and go against the party line.

OP posts:
ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 28/05/2012 09:21

yakbutter The Union of the Crowns occured a good 100 years before teh union of Scotland with England. This Union would in theory be unaffected by Scotland become indeed. Plus I think Scotland would become a member of the commonwealth anyway with the Queen at its head.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 28/05/2012 09:01

As commonwealth/irish citizens can currently act as MPs in Westminster, I guess Scots would be able to.

yakbutter · 28/05/2012 08:56

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 28/05/2012 08:54

Re EU membership.

Apparently there are two options on this:

Scotland becomes a partition of the UK. That means Scotland would automated retain membership of the EU, debts etc would be split by population...

Scotland becomes an entirely new country. This would be entertaining in many ways. Scotland would have to apply to join the EU yes. But so would England/wales/NI as they would be a new country too. And under non-proliferation treaty we wouldn't be allowed to give nukes back to England.

All this is hypothetical of course. It is a rare event and there are not that many precedents to go on.

JollyDiane as far as I am aware assets that are physically located in a particular country will stay there. Re debt etc, I believe this is done by head of population so as Scotland has say 10% of the total population of the UK it would take on 10% of debt.

Currency. Initially probably not. Scots would retain the pound, with interest rates set by Bank of England.

Scotland would probably lose its triple A rating yes. However, thsi is the not disaster some make it out to be. Japan has, I think an AA- rating, but gets better rates than the UK as it hasa healthier economy.

Re companies, I guess they would be regulated the way they currently are if operating in more than one country (don't know what that is though).

Re bailing out banks. Under international convention, if Scotland had been independent at the time of the RBS debacle it would have only been responsible for the percentage of activity that takes place in Scotland, which I think is about 10% of the total. So not a problem.

Westminster would no longer have Scottish MPs. This would make very little difference to the overall make up of Westminster as Scotland (and Wales) have such a low percentage of population. Fundamentally, the UK gets the government that the English (especially SE English) vote for, and this has always been the case.

CogitoErgoSometimes · 28/05/2012 08:40

You should try telling that 'Europe would not decide' line to Greece, Ireland, Spain.....

conkertree · 28/05/2012 07:08

Its a different level of government anyway. Europe would not decide our tax raising powers or policy on defence etc etc.

Original poster
Solopower · 27/05/2012 23:44

You might like to read ItsAllGoingToBeFine's post on another thread, NiceGuy2. According to her, we're in a pretty good position financially.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/1481171-Scottish-Independence-and-nationality-musing?pg=2

I don't see why it would be difficult for Scotland to join the EU. And why couldn't Scotland survive out of it, like Switzerland, for example?

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niceguy2 · 27/05/2012 23:30

To me the SNP argument just seems a bit odd.

Essentially it goes like this

"Scotland will be better off without interference from London. We can be masters of our own destinies."

Fair enough.

Except they all know that Scotland has to join the EU to survive economically. They can't really survive outside of it. And automatic EU membership is not a given. So big risk.

Secondly so Scotland doesn't like MP's in London having a say in what goes on in Scotland. Well at least they have MP's there! So they have quite a bit of direct influence. Can you imagine the real influence Scotland would have in the EU? It would still be dominated by France & Germany. If/when they joined the Euro then interest rates would be set in Berlin.

So from where I'm standing the SNP want the Scottish to give up the safety of being in the UK to go it alone and get dictated to by the French & Germans. Magic.

MarySA · 27/05/2012 22:28

Unfortunately not Solarpower :)

conkertree · 27/05/2012 21:04

I think no one can give definite answers to all the questions jolly, as if we vote yes, that would begin a huge series of debates and treaties to be signed, to agree things like sharing the debt out, defence etc.

To me, its an ideological argument first and foremost. Do we want to have more power to make decisions for ourselves, or not? The details, while obviously important, cant all be settled before a referendum, because the UK government woud never agree to favourable terms before a vote, incase that swings some people's decision. The Yes campaign can state what it would like to happen, but ultimately it is about how we want decision to be made.

Original poster
Solopower · 27/05/2012 21:02

Jollydiane, that's one of the reasons that I don't want independence. The rest of the UK needs us!

OP posts:
jollydiane · 27/05/2012 20:54

If Scotland votes to leave that is their democratic right. What I think is missing is clear unbiased facts of what in practical terms will happen.

  1. How will the assets and more importantly the debts of the UK be shared?
  2. Will there be a separate currency
  3. Will Scotland be able to borrow funds at the same AAA rating that the UK does or will the have to increase interest rates?
  4. Will companies have to be dual regulated or sole regulated. If the example of RBS were to happen again, can we assume that Scotland would bail it out without any help? Look what has happened to Ireland.
  5. I assume that Westminster would no longer have Scottish MP's, I would have thought therefore it would be harder for Labour to win power. Is that what the rest of the UK really want?
yakbutter · 27/05/2012 20:26

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Original poster
Solopower · 27/05/2012 20:19

I didn't mean you as in you, ItsAllGoingToBeFine, when I was talking about figures - I'm not doubting yours. I meant one, as in anyone.

I'm astonishd to learn that we all generate £1,000 per person more in tax than they do in England! Is that because we are more honest than they are, and declare all our earnings?

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Original poster
Solopower · 27/05/2012 19:49

MarySA, do you think the Tories have the same problems mating?

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Original poster
Solopower · 27/05/2012 19:48

In fact I think we might as well leave the economic and financial arguments out of it, as for every set of figures you can produce that prove one thing, someone else will produce figures that prove the opposite.

OP posts:
Original poster
Solopower · 27/05/2012 19:46

You make some very persuasive arguments in favour of independence on the other thread, ItsAllGoingToBeFine. But these days, I don't think any country is in control of its own finances or its own resources, since these are, more often than not, owned by global companies that could be owned and run by people of any nationality. These global companies have a lot of clout, and can you show me any government that is not in thrall to them?

OP posts:
MarySA · 27/05/2012 19:10

Somebody on TV said there were more pandas in Scotland than Tory MP's. I thought that was quite amusing.

Original poster
Solopower · 27/05/2012 19:07

Thank you, ItsAllGoingToBeFine. Yes, two years' worth of discussions about Scotland ... What's not to like?

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ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 27/05/2012 17:09

There have been other threads btw, and I'm sure there will be more :-)

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 27/05/2012 17:08

m.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/1481171-Scottish-Independence-and-nationality-musing?msgid=31991434

You are very articulate SoloPower :-)

Original poster
Solopower · 27/05/2012 17:01

I still haven't found that other thread on Scottish independence, btw. Can anyone help?

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Original poster
Solopower · 27/05/2012 17:00

But how exciting to have a brand new country, that we can shape for ourselves, and which could be whatever we wanted it to be! If we could guarantee that we would all have a voice in deciding whether or not to be a republic for example, that could, possibly, persuade me to vote for independence.

What I think is more likely, however, is that the rest of the UK will never, ever, in a million years, let go of the oil or the nuclear plants or the hugely disproportionate number of Scottish soldiers in the army. Imagine if the Scots left the British Army!

OP posts:
Original poster
Solopower · 27/05/2012 16:58

JennyPiccolo, I hope they are not complacent. I am really looking forward to hearing some good arguments against breaking up the Union - here, in Scotland. Most of what I have read so far would seem to be in favour.

As far as the currency is concerned, Niceguy2, how weird it would be if one sovereign nation had to rely on another to set interest rates and thus control the economy of another. How on earth could that ever work? I think that is just a sop to the traditionalists who might have a sentimental attachment to the pound. And as you say, to join the Euro would be bonkers just now.

If we did split, I think it would make more sense to have our own currency.

I agree with what you have written about the details, NIceguy2, but Ian Bell says the referendum will be about whether or not Scots have the right to choose who they are governed by, not the details of any independence agreement. Presumably, in a democracy, we could be expected to be consulted about the details like do we sack the queen, do we rid ourselves of nuclear power plants, etc.

OP posts:
niceguy2 · 27/05/2012 14:33

Personally I cannot see how breaking up the union right now can be a good thing.

For example, SNP have said they will join the Euro 'when the time is right' which currently is probably never. In which case they will continue to use the pound and therefore have to accept that interest rates would be set in London.

In addition, there's no such automatic right of Scotland joining the EU. Again the SNP have said they are 'confident' that they would start talks from within, but what does that mean? What if they are wrong? Seems like an awfully big risk to me.

It seems to me like Salmond is light on the details and the devil as we all know is in the details.