Something to celebrate?

34 replies

minimathsmouse · 04/05/2012 08:32

Labour have won a string of victories in English and Welsh local elections - with shadow ministers claiming Ed Miliband is now on course for No 10.

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EdithWeston · 04/05/2012 11:18

The Lib Dems seem to have had the biggest losses, and the governing party always seems to take losses in mid-term local elections.

Labour have done well, but not game-changingly so; unless they also see off the SNP in Scotland (when will those results start appearing?)

buggyRunner · 04/05/2012 11:15

I swear down that I have no clue who I would vote for in the next general election- yet def not lib dem. Do not like milliband though - would vote for a woman either party.

MrPants · 04/05/2012 11:11

Two things need to be taken into consideration with this result though. Over the course of the 2007 and 2008 local elections, the Labour party lost over 830 councillors. During the same elections, the Tories added over 1160 councillors to their ranks. It was always likely that, after ditching the hapless Brown, being in opposition, starting from such a low base, having the cuts in spending starting to take effect and the 'Omni-shambles', Labour would gain at the Tories expense this time around. Under these circumstances (Labour up around 700, Tories down around 500-600), whether or not this is a spectacular gain remains to be seen.

Secondly, with such a low turnout (32%), it's difficult to draw conclusions about how any general election will pan out. It's a fact of life that turnout will be around double for a GE, there will be more tactical voting, there are the upcoming boundary changes and people will (generally) vote less for the protest parties / independents (including UKIP / BNP etc.).

I wouldn't go expecting a nailed on Miliband victory at the next GE just yet - I've been saying to friends for some time now that if the economy shows any signs of improvement before the GE, he's toast.

Nancy66 · 04/05/2012 10:14

A bit of an ambitious statement. As Claig said - shockingly low turn-out and a government performing badly in local elections mid-term is nothing new.

claig · 04/05/2012 09:56

It was a good result for Labour. However, it was a very low turnout and the question is can Labour keep those voters or were some of the votes in part a protest vote to send a message to the Coalition?

Original poster

minimathsmouse · 04/05/2012 09:46

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17920848

The latest seems to be 40% to labour

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CogitoErgoSometimes · 04/05/2012 09:02

I think they've done well but that's traditionally what happens mid-term. Labour lost very heavily in the last local elections and I think we're pretty much back to the pre 2008 picture. Lib-Dems have really bombed, though.

Original poster

minimathsmouse · 04/05/2012 08:40

Tis indeed a good day :)

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crazynanna · 04/05/2012 08:33

Nice to wake up to!

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