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Politics

The cruel stupidity that is economic austerity

63 replies

ttosca · 18/04/2012 19:59

In the euro zone, Germany, France, Spain and Italy all managed to reduce their structural budget deficits, the latter three thanks to austerity. All are expected to reduce those deficits further this year. But this is not the good news it seems. Austerity, the IMF has found, could be making Europe?s crisis worse, rather than better.


How bad is it?

In Greece, we now have record unemployment, which includes the majority of young workers. Homelessness is up 20 percent, with soup kitchens in Athens reporting record demand, and the usually low suicide rate having doubled.

Portugal has complied completely with the austerity demands it accepted for its bailout deal, but its debt is growing and its economy is shrinking, its unemployment rate continues to reach new heights, there is a crisis in medical care, and a 40 percent rise in emigration, with the Portuguese government acknowledging its own failure by actually encouraging its citizenry to leave.

In Spain, austerity has  resulted in falling industrial output and deepening debt, with record unemployment and a stunning rate of 50 percent youth unemployment. And the Spanish government's incomprehensible response is to impose even more crushing austerity.

Ireland has fallen back into recession as austerity has led to falling economic output. A better future is being sacrificed, as young workers look for work abroad, "generation emigration" expected to number 75,000 this year.

The success of Italy's wealthy technocrat government was concisely summarized in similar terms:

    Italy's austerity measures are stunting activity in the euro-zone's third-largest economy, recent budget and economic data show, suggesting the steps are backfiring.

Italy's industrial production is falling while its rate of unemployment is at its highest in more than a decade, and its priceless cultural heritage is literally crumbling. But the wealthy technocrats themselves are ensuring that they they don't have to share the suffering.

Even in the Eurozone's stronger economies, such as Holland, austerity is hurting the economy, people, and culture, and risks backfiring even more.

The austerity program of French President Nicolas Sarkozy has led to a stagnant economy, with ten consecutive months of rising unemployment and factory output stalled and business confidence in decline.

Even economic powerhouse Germany, while taking advantage of the new flood of migrant workers fleeing Europe's weaker economies, is facing an austerity backlash.

Outside the Eurozone, the austerity program imposed on Britain by the relentlessly mendacious Cameron government has resulted in an economy that keeps shrinking, with the OECD saying it is back in recession, with unemployment soaring, and the overall brunt being borne by the elderly and minorities and the very young. An additional hundred thousand are predicted to be out of work by autumn.

www.dailykos.com/story/2012/04/15/1083315/-The-cruel-stupidity-that-is-economic-austerity

OP posts:
minimathsmouse · 20/04/2012 14:17

" Crediting agencies are private organisations who are also out to make a profit. So banks hired credit agencies to give good ratings to dodgy debt, so that they could be sold on.

Ttosca does know and that is correct. As I said earlier, with the Sub-prime mortgages. They were also re-packaged and they were rated AAA by the ratings agencies.

CoteDAzur · 20/04/2012 14:12

"It isn't for their long-term benefit."

If you know what you are talking about, please explain.

There are some options available that don't include an austerity program, but they will not be in anybody's long term benefit.

"It's for the long term benefit of the banks."

How do you figure that? Easy money and economic expansion is in the interest of banks, not austerity measures leading to dampened growth, as you so cleverly observed Hmm

"Putting tens of thousands of people out of work during a recession is no way to bring back growth."

Many people will inevitably lose their jobs during a recession. That is what a recession is. Governments will usually try to spend lots and lessen the blow, but if you don't have lots of money to spend, what do you expect the government to do? Sell more bonds and increase debt levels? Print loads of money and cause high inflation? Please share your magic Econ policy with us that doesn't involve austerity measures.

"investment in special packages which not even they understood. The main problem was buying, repackaging, and then re-selling bad debt."

That is not "gambling bankers", though. That is insufficient regulation and again, preference for short term gain over long term benefit. This is a very human trait and is one of the main reasons why we have regulations in the same place - so morons and greedy bastards can't do things that will cause trouble for all of us.

" Crediting agencies are private organisations who are also out to make a profit. So banks hired credit agencies to give good ratings to dodgy debt, so that they could be sold on."

Now I know you don't really know about investment banking because this is not what happens at all.

rabbitstew · 20/04/2012 14:07

Well obviously, ttosca, we are in the current crisis because lots of very crafty, clever people pulled the wool over the banks' eyes and asked for loans for stupid things they didn't need and the banks thought they were lending money on credit for noble reasons and that it really was all going to be paid back. So of course, it isn't the fault of the banks - what were they supposed to do about it? Poor, weak banks, they had their hands tied (by each other...).

minimathsmouse · 20/04/2012 14:00

investment in special packages which not even they understood. The main problem was buying, repackaging, and then re-selling bad debt. Crediting agencies are private organisations who are also out to make a profit. So banks hired credit agencies to give good ratings to dodgy debt, so that they could be sold on. Naturally, they complied. This bad debt was then sold on again and again. Eventually, the whole house of cards came crumbling down. What else would you call this apart from gambling? Financial fraud, perhaps

And this is how the Greek hole is being plugged now.

ttosca · 20/04/2012 13:59

Cogito-

If earnings are so depleted and costs are so high what exactly are people paying down this debt with? The answer can only be that there is a lot of spare in the system... spare which was merrily spent in the past on non-essentials.

Bwahahaha! That's your argument? People are paying back debt, therefore previously they were spending lavishly?

Did it occur to you that people are now making basic sacrifices in their standard of living - such as, you know, selling their homes and moving into smaller houses? Cutting down on food and clothes? etc.?

Has it not also occurred to you that the problem is not people were 'spending lavishly', but that they simply tried to maintain their standard of living in the face of stagnating wages and rising living costs?

I see you still haven't disputed either of these facts - or assertions, if you like.

OP posts:
ttosca · 20/04/2012 13:55

CoteDAzur-

Naturally. People don't like to suffer, even if it is for long term benefit. And those who don't have the required knowledge base in macroeconomics cannot be expected to understand why these policies are necessary.

It isn't for their long-term benefit. It's for the long term benefit of the banks. As the thread article highlights, the austerity measures are dampening growth. This is not a new phenomenon. It's a well-known phenomenon. Putting tens of thousands of people out of work during a recession is no way to bring back growth.

Is it your sincere belief that some bankers made some risky investments, lost the money, and that is why the UK (and all these other countries?) are in financial trouble?

There are quite a few things the financial sector did which caused the crisis. Some of them were, yes, investment in special packages which not even they understood. The main problem was buying, repackaging, and then re-selling bad debt. Crediting agencies are private organisations who are also out to make a profit. So banks hired credit agencies to give good ratings to dodgy debt, so that they could be sold on. Naturally, they complied. This bad debt was then sold on again and again. Eventually, the whole house of cards came crumbling down. What else would you call this apart from gambling? Financial fraud, perhaps?

Why do you think Western economies are in financial trouble? Because they spent too much money on hospitals? Seriously?!

OP posts:
CogitoErgoSometimes · 20/04/2012 13:53

If it's evidence you want... (and here I get to indulge in a bit of annoying and lazy-arse copy/pasting)... link to article

"Repayments outstripped new borrowing on credit cards by £39m in February (2012). The repayment in unsecured lending was driven by weak demand, and continued payback, of loans and overdrafts.

Unsecured lending by the banks contracted by 1.8% in the 12 months to February.

"Businesses and households continue to be cautious about their finances in the face of difficult economic times and this shows up in a reluctance to take on new credit, or where possible, seeking to pay back bank borrowing," said BBA statistics director David Dooks.

If earnings are so depleted and costs are so high what exactly are people paying down this debt with? The answer can only be that there is a lot of spare in the system... spare which was merrily spent in the past on non-essentials.

rabbitstew · 20/04/2012 13:46

Economics is not pure maths or even science, CoteDAzur, so don't go pretending people with an understanding of economic theory have the answers we all seek or that current majority opinion won't be looked back on in future, pulled apart and found to be seriously wanting.

CoteDAzur · 20/04/2012 13:42

"financial crisis caused by gambling bankers"

Like, in a casino?

Is it your sincere belief that some bankers made some risky investments, lost the money, and that is why the UK (and all these other countries?) are in financial trouble?

CoteDAzur · 20/04/2012 13:39

"the public are generally against the austerity measures"

Naturally. People don't like to suffer, even if it is for long term benefit. And those who don't have the required knowledge base in macroeconomics cannot be expected to understand why these policies are necessary.

JuliaScurr · 20/04/2012 13:28

You mean Teaching Assistants' pensions didn't cause Lehman Brothers to collapse?

ttosca · 20/04/2012 13:25

Purits-

That makes it sound like it's a bad thing. Has everyone forgotten the 70s inflation nightmare? hmm Try describing wages as 'stable' instead of 'stagnant' and, hey presto, it sounds so much better. arf

For most of the 20th Century, people have seen real-term gains in income. It was widely accepted that the next generation would have a higher standard of living than the one preceding it.

Because we, as a society, generate wealth. It is right that we all share in the proceeds.

Instead, what has happened in the past three decades, is that income for the top 5% has skyrocketed, income for the top 20% (including the 5%) has increased slightly, while wages for 80% of the population have stagnated or declined.

So maybe you should be complaining about wage 'inflation' for the top 5%?...

OP posts:
ttosca · 20/04/2012 13:21

Edith-

"this narrative"?

Yes, this 'narrative'. Narrative as in 'story', or 'explanation for'...

The debt crisis cannot be "spun" away by telling different stories about it or pretending it doesn't exist.

The UK doesn't have a debt crisis (yet), it has a deficit crisis, and nobody is trying to spin anything away pretending that it doesn't exist.

The reason we have austerity is because the time for story-telling is over.

The reason we have austerity is because of the financial crisis caused by gambling bankers. The financial crisis caused a recession, dramatically lowering tax receipts. The bank bailouts also cost tax payers tens of billions of pounds in the UK, and hundreds of billions of pounds in total. This added to our national debt.

The 'story telling', i.e. 'narrative', which I'm referring to is the story that the cause of the deficit crisis is because of lavish public spending. This is a false narrative, as public spending was not the cause of our current financial problems or deficit crisis.

The fiction that you can spend your way out of a debt is known to be just that, fiction.

The fiction that you can cut public spending more and more without dampening growth is a fiction. That's why the european-wide austerity measures are compounding the financial crisis in to a growth problem.

'Managing the discourse' is merely a form over spin over substance.

Yes, it is. You should tell that to the Tory scum, and the people on here who like to manage the discourse by creating a narrative that the the economic crisis and deficit problem we're experiencing was caused by Labour or by lavish public spending. This is utterly false.

The reason that opposition parties across Europe are in general not opposing effectively is because they don't actually disagree with the need for austerity, and the public understands the necessity too.

I think you'll find the public are generally against the austerity measures. The mainstream parties, of course, support the austerity measures because they see the crisis as an opportunity to implement neo-liberal economic policies of cutting public services.

I think you'll also find that resistance to the austerity measures is growing daily. Prepare for an exciting spring!

OP posts:
ttosca · 20/04/2012 13:13

Cogito-

This is quite wrong. Just in my own circle of friends I knew people (usually younger ones) that took out mammoth amounts of debt to buy all kinds of non-essentials - fancy cars, foreign holidays - simply because it was offered. I also know many that didn't get suckered into debt at all and maintained a perfectly good standard of living. Younger people again overstretched badly on houses making incorrect assumptions i.e. being too optimistic about future earnings and future house-prices. Slightly older people who experienced the last negative equity crash in the nineties were far more cautious.

Your anecdotal experiences aren't really a valid basis on which to make an argument, I'm afraid.

What facts - or alleged facts - do you contest? Do you contest that wages have stagnated or declined for decades for the majority of people? Do you contest that house prices have skyrocketed? Do you contest that public transport costs have skyrocketed?

Instead of saying: "I know people who bought large screen TVs with credit" as some sort of attempt at counter-argument, why don't you try to show how it's not the case that wages have stagnated or declined while the cost of living has increased?

OP posts:
rabbitstew · 20/04/2012 11:10

purits - at the moment we have inflation without wage rises (and without any of the "benefit" being passed on to savers). And as for usury as a method of keeping the world running smoothly... now we know why it always used to be considered a sin!

purits · 20/04/2012 09:30

a new spectre is haunting the world?s most advanced economies: the prospect that the majority of their citizens will face years of stagnant wages.

That makes it sound like it's a bad thing. Has everyone forgotten the 70s inflation nightmare?Hmm
Try describing wages as 'stable' instead of 'stagnant' and, hey presto, it sounds so much better. arf

minimathsmouse · 20/04/2012 09:19

So why are the banks upping the interest on the Greek Loans? why have the other memeber governments given Greece a crippling bail out package, clearly they think that Greece should borrow more just to pay back it's debt. They clearly think that creating new financial products and getting others to underwrite the loans (people who don't know what they are purchasing, remember the Sub-prime mortgages) will be just the ticket.

I agree, spending your way out of debt whilst it worked in the 30's it's unlikely to work now. Which is why some radical rethinking needs to occur about the system of boom and bust economics.

I don't subscribe to the idea that a rebalancing act can really get at the root causes of the problem.

EdithWeston · 20/04/2012 07:57

"this narrative"?

The debt crisis cannot be "spun" away by telling different stories about it or pretending it doesn't exist.

The reason we have austerity is because the time for story-telling is over. The fiction that you can spend your way out of a debt is known to be just that, fiction.

'Managing the discourse' is merely a form over spin over substance. I think that style of politics is inadequate for the current circumstances, and rejected by all sides. The reason that opposition parties across Europe are in general not opposing effectively is because they don't actually disagree with the need for austerity, and the public understands the necessity too.

CogitoErgoSometimes · 20/04/2012 07:43

"So people took on debts in order to stay afloat and to merely maintain their standard of living. "

This is quite wrong. Just in my own circle of friends I knew people (usually younger ones) that took out mammoth amounts of debt to buy all kinds of non-essentials - fancy cars, foreign holidays - simply because it was offered. I also know many that didn't get suckered into debt at all and maintained a perfectly good standard of living. Younger people again overstretched badly on houses making incorrect assumptions i.e. being too optimistic about future earnings and future house-prices. Slightly older people who experienced the last negative equity crash in the nineties were far more cautious.

There seems to be some kind of twisted narrative emerging that all the debt taken on in the last 10 - 15 years was paying gas & grocery bills. If that happened it was only for a very small minority

minimathsmouse · 19/04/2012 22:13

Economist Richard Wolf on the Euro Crisis. Makes the economics behind the crisis really easy to understand.

minimathsmouse · 19/04/2012 20:42

If only, :)

minimathsmouse · 19/04/2012 20:41

A spectre is haunting Europe, the spectre of All the powers of old Europe have entered into a holy alliance............

Maggie, that's what is still haunting us.

ttosca · 19/04/2012 20:41

I think the old spectre is returning, Julia. ;)

OP posts:
claig · 19/04/2012 19:37

Do you mean Tony Blair?

JuliaScurr · 19/04/2012 19:34

ttosca is that the same spectre that used to haunt Europe?

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