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Politics

Institute for Fiscal Studies says chancellor's plan will cause 10% drop in family living standards

62 replies

ttosca · 12/09/2011 00:41

George Osborne given stark warning on cuts' impact

Institute for Fiscal Studies says chancellor's plan will cause 10% drop in family living standards

George Osborne's austerity programme will cut the living standards of Britain's families by more than 10% over the next three years as those on the lowest incomes suffer most from the tax increases and spending cuts designed to reduce the budget deficit.

A study from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the UK's leading experts on the public finances, concludes that the chancellor's strategy will result in greater inequality and rising child poverty, throwing into reverse progress made in the final years of the last Labour government.

The bleak picture painted by the IFS will be used by opponents of the chancellor's austerity measures to call for a plan B to generate faster economic growth. There is likely to be further pressure on Osborne on Monday as the head of his independent commission on banking, Sir John Vickers, outlines measures for banking reform.

The IFS analysis, included in a new international study into the impact of the "Great Recession" of 2008-09 on 21 wealthy countries, says the most severe downturn since the interwar years will "cast a very long shadow in the UK", with the poorest 30% of households especially hard hit.

www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/sep/12/george-osborne-warning-cuts-impact

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niceguy2 · 12/09/2011 19:07

I agree with Cogito.

If you earn a middle income then you may well find the loss of tax credits and at very least a 10% reduction on childcare element.

If you are a higher rate tax payer you lose child benefit soon.

If you earn £150k or more you'll be paying 50% income tax. In that context you could argue that the "rich" suffer the most because they pay the most and are continually asked to pay more.

CogitoErgoSometimes · 12/09/2011 18:25

'Burden' is relative. The person earning £10,000 per year pays £837 in tax and NI.... less than 1% of their income. The person earning £100,000 per year pays £35,391... 35.3%. We are already, therefore, 'asking the richest to pay for the greatest share' and have done for a long, long time.

ttosca · 12/09/2011 17:57

Has it occured to you WHY those "who can afford" to do that are in that position? Could it be because they have worked hard, and used their brains? Or do you just think people get rich doing nothing?

Oh I see. You're going to pretend that we live in a meritocracy, right? In fact, the biggest indicator is social outcome for an individual is the family and wealth in which they were brought up; if you are born into wealth, you will remain wealthy. If you are born poor, you will remain poor.

The reasons for this is obvious: rich people have connections, get better schooling, get better healthcare, have a better diet, and are less likely to be victims of crime.

Of course there are always rags-to-riches stories, but in general, background determines wealth.

The poorest are paying very little, the rich paying a lot, we are in this together. It's just that a lot of people's idea is that the rich should pay for everything, and the poor just left to live fecklessly.

As a portion of their income, the rich aren't paying a lot, in fact. That's why wealth inequality is greater than it has been since Victorian times. We bail out the banks, while they continue to award themselves billions (£14 Billion last year) in bonuses.

Finally, I think you should rethink the use of the word 'feckless'. Considering it also means 'irresponsible', I think you'll find that it applies more to the casino gamblers who brought the world economy to its knees than the average mother working 40+ hours per week on less than £20K.

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FreddyG · 12/09/2011 16:25

My point was that the poorest should not be victimised to pay for a crisis not of their own making.
Why?

There is much room here to ensure the poorest are protected while those who can afford to make a higher contribution, do so.
How? and Why?

Has it occured to you WHY those "who can afford" to do that are in that position? Could it be because they have worked hard, and used their brains? Or do you just think people get rich doing nothing?

The poorest are paying very little, the rich paying a lot, we are in this together. It's just that a lot of people's idea is that the rich should pay for everything, and the poor just left to live fecklessly.

ttosca · 12/09/2011 15:53

Cogito-

The government does have control over prices of food and fuel. It has at least two mechanisms at its disposal: regulation and taxation. There is no good reason, for example, why public transport in the UK is three times more expensive than mainland europe, while corporate profits in that sector are souring.

Wage restraint is a less important element because many of the poorest households are either on fixed unearned incomes such as retirement savings or benefits & pensions which at least have a degree of index-linking.

I was referring to the working poor. Those in low incomes. These are the people who have had their wages depressed - what your euphemistically called 'wage restraint'.

There is no need for 'wage restraint' when the income of top earners has increased 10 or 100 times in two decades, while those in the middle and bottom have stagnated. 'Wage restraint' needs to happen at the top, so that regular working people's wages can keep up with inflation.

I don't believe the poorest are being victimised or being asked to pay over the odds. I do believe that they are most vulnerable to the effects of high inflation.

The economy isn't a natural phenomenon like the weather. Like any political and economic decision, there are winners and losers. Reducing the deficit could be done by asking the richest to pay for the greatest share, or by putting the burden on the poorest. At the moment, as the report shorts, the burden is lying on the poorest.

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CogitoErgoSometimes · 12/09/2011 15:38

The poorest may be disproportionately affected by changes to public services but the biggest impact on household income is coming from increased prices for food, fuel and other essentials.... not something the government has direct control over. Wage restraint is a less important element because many of the poorest households are either on fixed unearned incomes such as retirement savings or benefits & pensions which at least have a degree of index-linking. I don't believe the poorest are being victimised or being asked to pay over the odds. I do believe that they are most vulnerable to the effects of high inflation.

ttosca · 12/09/2011 14:51

I think some of your missed the point of the article - or at least, one of its main points.

The issue is not just the drop is living standards, but the fact that the poorest are going to suffer disproportionately from government policy.

Secondly, the 'correction' isn't as simple as 'living within our means': we are in the middle of a recession caused by a financial crisis. Therefore tax receipts are at an all time low and people are out of work.

Furthermore, as I've explained a few dozen times, spending on public services in this country is really not that high. Relative to other european countries it is average or below average in many areas, including health.

As for individuals, the fact is that wages have stagnated for three decades due to attack on workers rights and unions and hiring people overshore to do work cheaper than in the UK. In order to keep consumption going (which is what our economy depends on), people were given cheap access to credit.

So the consumption of 'living beyond our means' is the ruling class having its cake and eating it: it gets to reduce wages and increase profit, while at the same time keeping up consumption to keep the economy going. Yes, this was a bubble. That's the nature of Capitalism.

So in any case, if you read the article, it states that the poorest 30% will be hit especially hard. My point was that the poorest should not be victimised to pay for a crisis not of their own making. There is much room here to ensure the poorest are protected while those who can afford to make a higher contribution, do so.

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jackstarb · 12/09/2011 12:10

OK - that's just the press release. The report isn't available yet.

Grrrr.....I hate it when they do that.

BTW - the press release puts the report findings in international context, so worth a read.

jackstarb · 12/09/2011 12:01

In case anybody is interested in making up their own mind about the report, rather than just relying on the Guardian -

A link to the actual report:

www.ifs.org.uk/pr/frdb_recession.pdf

niceguy2 · 12/09/2011 09:31

I'd be surprised if the deepest cuts since the 1920's didn't affect our living standards. In fact, I'd be worried then that the government wasn't taking our deficit & national debt seriously.

The fact is paying any debt off leaves less money to spend on other things. Being in debt means you've already borrowed money and so artificially increased your "standard of living" whilst at the same time also paying interest on said loan.

CogitoErgoSometimes · 12/09/2011 07:15

After a 13 year global debt & spending bubble, the correction was never going to be pretty. The previous government managed to create greater inequality and lower social mobility in the boom times so the idea of 'throwing into reverse' the acheivements of Labour is slightly ridiculous. The austerity measures may reduce our disposable income short term but they don't mention what effect the 'keep spending' (or rather 'cut slower') Opposition policy would have produced. I'm also suspicious of organisations that are happy to lob brickbats at strategies but don't have any better ideas themselves.

ttosca · 12/09/2011 00:42

"We're all in this together.", remember?

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