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Politics

Very good critical analysis of the current economic crisis we're in

70 replies

ttosca · 30/05/2011 20:01

From Crisis to Slump - James Meadway:

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newwave · 12/06/2011 21:58

Rationing in itself is not all bad, it may help stop the obesity plauge and all it's inherent bad health and maybe it will stop people driving half a mile to pick up a Newspaper because they a just lazy.

MoreBeta · 12/06/2011 21:50

There are currently 40 million Americans living on food stamps. Rationing by another name.

newwave · 12/06/2011 21:20

In the next 20-25 years we will be back to the days of rationing of food and fuel as with growing populations the planet will not be able to provide for all.

If we are very lucky it will mean everyone pulling together with gardens used to grow vegetables and to keep chickens together with a strong and supportive community bond with the old and sick looked after properly.

It wont (I hope) be like the 20's and 30's because technology will stop a slide into mass poverty.

No doubt the rich will live in their gated communities and still live high on the hog so no change expected there.

If we are unlucky the developed world will end up having resource wars, Iraq anyone.

I dont see this altogether as a bad thing as "growth" without end will fuck the planet sooner or later.

jackstarb · 12/06/2011 20:31

Morebeta (sorry)

jackstarb · 12/06/2011 20:20

ttosca - I'm saying even the risk of violence will put the majority (of those living in a developed world democracy) off serious physical civil disobedience.

BeenBeta's scenario is both scary and IMO more likely (though I hope not).

ttosca · 12/06/2011 19:36

You're saying that revolutionary change is not the price worth paying for revolutionary change.

Damnit. I wish there was an edit function. I meant:

"You're saying that violence is not the price worth paying for revolutionary change..."

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ttosca · 12/06/2011 19:30

What happened in Russia is that they got rid of a Tsarist system. If they didn't have that revolution, they'd be stuck in an 18th century social order.

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MoreBeta · 12/06/2011 19:30

I agree with Cogito that the financial crisis and the need for austerity by Govt ar two separate issues.

However, the next shoe to drop will certainly be Govt defaults becuase they cant afford to pay back what they have borrowed which will crush banks, stockmarkets wil drop, pensions will be destroyed, property values collapse and millions thrown out of work. if Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain default on their Govt debts that will crash the entire banking system of Europe and possibly the US and plunge us into a Depression.

There will be no bank bailout next time and no austerity wil dig us out fo a hole. Only debt writeoffs will did us out of the mess that is still there but simply kicked down the road.

Once the Depression arrives, we may well get a clamouring for a return to protectionism and mercantilism across the world. Free market capitalism has never actually existed in reality. At best we have had managed trade and heavy Govt intervention in domestic economies for most of the last 100 years. Before that we had the British Empire which ran on mercantilist lines in international trade and with licenced monopolies being handed out in the domestic economy.

ttosca · 12/06/2011 19:29

Well, that's a different argument. You're saying that revolutionary change is not the price worth paying for revolutionary change.

That's a different argument from whether or not violent revolutionary change is effective, which clearly, in some examples, it is.

You may not think that its a price worth paying, and that's fair enough. I can respect pacifism, but many people throughout history have disagreed and have brought about revolutionary change sometimes with the aid of violence.

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jackstarb · 12/06/2011 19:21

Yes - that's what I'm talking about. All that death, disruption and generations of suffering. Maybe it was worth it in the case of US and France - but modern people wouldn't risk it now, especially given what happened in Russia.

ttosca · 12/06/2011 19:10

ttosca - I have one quibble with what you say. Humanity has already tried the civil unrest route to a different economic and social model - and that didn't go too well.

What on earth are you talking about? The French, American and Russian revolutionary wars all brought in a new social order.

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jackstarb · 12/06/2011 18:47

ttosca - I have one quibble with what you say. Humanity has already tried the civil unrest route to a different economic and social model - and that didn't go too well. I think successful transformation will be through the evolutionary route (enabled by technological advances) and we probably won't see it in our lifetimes.

ttosca · 12/06/2011 17:58

Cogito-

If we've had 400 years (although I maintain it is far longer and you are merely splitting hairs about terminology) to come up with a 'new means of engaging in economic activity' and have not done so - including the catastrophic, failed, large-scale experiments of communism and national socialism - I would say there is little chance of it happening in future.

lol. Do you think Capitalism is 'the end of history'? That humanity won't progress from a Capitalist system to something more rational, ever?

400 years in the history of humanity isn't very long, and other systems, including slavery, lasted thousands of years.

I think we're approaching a situation where humanity will simply have to find a better system, as it can't go on with 'growth' for the sake of growth, can't go on polluting, causing climate change, concentrating more and more wealth and power into fewer and fewer hands, whilst failing to provide basic needs for the majority of humanity.

Civil unrest is here, and likely to grow exponentially in the coming decades. You'll see. There are many people who are not satisfied with the current system.

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HHLimbo · 11/06/2011 18:45

Actually jack, feudalism was a military system. You could say that now, the military has been completely socialised and communised :)

jackstarb · 11/06/2011 10:19

Oops - try again.

I suspect that 'capitalism' has evolved from much tougher, less democratic systems of organising economic activities (such as feudalism).

According to Marx, capitalism is a stage on this evolutionary path - with socialism the destination. I'm not sure if that idea has wide support now. As far as I can see, most mainstream 'socialists' appear to accept capitalism as part of economic reality.

jackstarb · 11/06/2011 10:06

I suspect 'capitalism' in it's modern form has ev

CogitoErgoSometimes · 11/06/2011 07:14

If we've had 400 years (although I maintain it is far longer and you are merely splitting hairs about terminology) to come up with a 'new means of engaging in economic activity' and have not done so - including the catastrophic, failed, large-scale experiments of communism and national socialism - I would say there is little chance of it happening in future.

ttosca · 11/06/2011 02:08

Cogito-

I'll try to be brief. Capitalism is roughly 400 years and came about after the industrial revolution in europe.

Selling goods for profit is not sufficient for an economic system to be 'Capitalist'. You are referring to mercantilism. You could argue that mercantilism was proto-Capitalist in that it has a profit motive, but it was certainly a very different from modern Capitalism as we know it.

You've gone one worse, though, because you've even claimed that bartering is Capitalism, so you even left out buying and selling for profit. Bartering is not Capitalism.

I think your problem is that you're confusing Capitalism with trade. Trade has existed since man had any surplus material - basically since agriculture.

Capitalism is something quite different. Here is a brief outline of the differences:

public.wsu.edu/~dee/GLOSSARY/CAPITAL.HTM


In any case, my point was that Capitalism is not a 'natural' system like the weather. It is an economic system of human creation, just as slavery, surfdom, and mercantilism were.

When humans have no more use for Capitalism, they were invent new means of engaging in economic activity - this is happening already, and has happened throughout history. Eventually, a new dominant mode of economic activity will take the place of Capitalism.

Given the amount of pollution, climate change, food and water scarcity, tonnes of junk we produce and the periodic crisis that we're experiencing under Capitalism with greater frequency and intensity, I'd say that change will come about within the next few decades.

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CogitoErgoSometimes · 10/06/2011 07:47

400 years? So they didn't buy or sell goods for a profit in Roman times? No concept of trading in Ancient Egypt? And those mediaeval hoards of gold and silver were just what... home furnishings? Since man started farming and bartering what he produced for other goods and services, capitalism has existed.

I'm sure it will be a long post if you're trying to rewrite history.

ttosca · 09/06/2011 21:35

Not really, cogito, but answering such a question usually involves a long post, since it is necessary to challenge many of the assumptions behind the question itself - for example... your idea that abolishing Capitalism was 'impossible' - as if it were some kind of 'natural' phenomenon, when it reality it has only existed for 400 or so years and came in to being after the industrial revolution in the UK and Germany.

I'll answer your question in more length when I have more time. I am currently writing a paper.

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CogitoErgoSometimes · 09/06/2011 19:44

See the question on how you'd 'abolish capitalism' fell on deaf ears...

claig · 09/06/2011 19:03

'The next Conservative government will abolish the tripartite system. We will put the Bank of England in charge of making sure our banking system does not bring down the whole economy.
To do that it needs to know what's going on in individual banks. That's why we Conservatives will also make the Bank of England responsible for the prudential regulation of our banks, building societies and other significant financial institutions.'

claig · 09/06/2011 19:02

'What do you base this opinion on? What makes you so sure that the Tories would have better regulated the city, when they have traditionally been the party of 'free-market' '

Because George Osborne said, long before the election, that he would have scrapped Labour's tripartite regulatory regime and placed the Bank of England in charge of regulation.

www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1199201/GEORGE-OSBORNE.html

ttosca · 09/06/2011 18:46

newguy

I'm not stuck at all. What caused the financial mess certainly wasn't Labour alone. It was a global problem which the banks must take some of the blame, as should many governments of the time who turned a blind eye whilst the good times rolled.

The banks and those implementing the neo-liberal agenda of mass-privitisation and deregulation are most to blame.

BUT we are where we are now. The fact is that we do have a massive deficit. The fact is that there is no magic wand solution other than to tighten our belts and at the same time pray economic growth can help us lessen the pain.

There doesn't have to be a 'magic wand' solution, but there are many solutions aside from drastic cuts, which have been suggested on this thread and others.

In fact, the 'cuts' (or, 'tighten our belts') solution not only isn't a solution, it's positively making things worse, and more and more reports are coming out (as predicted) that the massive cuts are grinding the economy to a halt.

Ttosca, while you are still happy to throw stones at the coalition and try to continue to blame everyone but Labour.

I don't give a crap about Labour. The point I'm trying to make is that this isn't a a party issue, but the fault of neo-liberal ideology.

The fact is that who/how/when the problem occurred is all academic now.

No, it's not academic now. As I said earlier, correctly determining the cause of the crisis is necessary in order to:

a) Ensure that it won't happen again

b) Make sure those who caused it pay for it

If you believe, falsely, that massive public spending is the 'cause' of the deficit crisis, then your solution will be to cut public spending. Well, it isn't and wasn't the cause. The cause was the bankers gambling and then losing with public money, and then being further bailed out with public money, and then causing a recession.

The only realistic solution though is the same. Massive cuts. The only difference between Labour & the coalition is about 5%. Not really a lot.

Massive cuts are not only not a solution, but they are positively harming the economy. Do I have to copy and paste myriad recent articles showing that this plan isn't working?

I don't give a shit what Labour says. If Labour supports the cuts, then I don't support Labour either.

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ttosca · 09/06/2011 18:37

claig-

'You base this opinion on what - you hatred of New Labour?'

I voted for them in 1997. I don't hate New Labour; I laugh at them.

That's great, claig, but you avoided the question.

What do you base this opinion on? What makes you so sure that the Tories would have better regulated the city, when they have traditionally been the party of 'free-market' Capitalism and deregulation?

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