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Politics

CinnabarRed's tax thread

192 replies

CinnabarRed · 20/02/2011 18:18

This may be an act of supreme arrogance on my part - if so, I apologise profusely! But it seems that a lot of people have got questions about tax policy and the morality of taxation, which is my professional field.

So this thread is your chance to ask me any questions you have in this general area. I promise to explain what I know, be honest and clear when I don't know the answer, and distinguish between facts (for which I will provide a reference) and my opinion.

So over to you! I'll be back in the morning to answer any questions posted tonight.

PS: I won't be providing taxation advice to anyone!

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scaryteacher · 22/03/2012 19:47

Tax has ended up so complicated because one G Brown, aided by one Ed Balls, made it so. We went from a relatively easily understood system to a labyrinthine system which requires a degree in doublespeak to navigate one's way around. I wanted some simple answers about IHT and CGT last year, and ended up having to call HMRC as I couldn't find what I wanted from what was on their website (and I spent years immersed in the LGFA for CC and CTAX and can read legislation fairly well and used to be a TOHG in my very much younger days).

rabbitstew · 22/03/2012 17:46

Oh, and I do remember getting more interested in the tax I was paying when my coding notice didn't correspond with the information I had put into my tax return. I don't object to paying tax, provided it is collected efficiently and calculated correctly!...

rabbitstew · 22/03/2012 17:37

Blimey - was just looking on HMRC website at "National Insurance for Employers: the Basics." It doesn't look very basic to me.

So, how has tax ended up so complicated? Is it because we don't go for a "spirit and intendment" approach to the interpretation of our tax laws? Or because life will always be too complicated for simple tax laws to be possible? Or because simple always ends up meaning transparent but unfair? Or because it's easier to collect tax if everyone is very confused by it?!...

rabbitstew · 22/03/2012 16:37

I have to admit, I have never really wanted to know exactly how much I am paying in tax - always felt slightly annoyed to be given the VAT exclusive price when I knew that wasn't what I had to pay; tried very hard never to look at the deductions on my pay slip and only looked at the net amount; didn't want to know the gross amount of interest being paid on my savings if I couldn't get them tax free in any event; found it vaguely annoying if it was suggested to me that I could structure things in a more tax efficient way. If I ran my own business and needed to be very tax efficient in order to survive (and mainly wasn't the end payer of VAT), I am sure some of that would spill over into the way I viewed my personal tax bill, too. Also, I suppose the less my tax money seems to be going towards things that I perceive to be good for society as a whole and which create some sense of community and shared enterprise, the less I will be willing to view things that way - when I no longer see the State as well meaning and relatively uncorrupt, I will probably avoid tax as much as possible.

wordfactory · 22/03/2012 15:59

50% tax, plus NI, plus loss of personal allowance always felt over the tipping point to me.

Don't get me wrong I don't pay my tax bill with a grin, but when it was 40% I felt it was okay. Fair.

When it tipped to more than half of each £1 earned, it felt unfair. Paticularly as DH and I both lost our allowance too. It felt like a punishment.
I can quite see how that sent people scurrying off to avoid it.

Whether 45% is enough to get those people back in the system again, I dunno. It's still high.

rabbitstew · 22/03/2012 14:37

Thanks scaryteacher. Smile

rabbitstew · 22/03/2012 14:36

Thanks, clytaemnestra. So at 45% income tax, you would be paying less than 50% tax on your income including NI contributions? That makes much more sense to me, now.

ps how do employers' national insurance contributions work? Are they a fixed % rate whatever the income, or do employers' contributions vary depending on the salary being paid? (Never having been an employer, it would be very interesting to know how this side of the NI coin works - is it as hugely complicated and obscure as other tax?).

scaryteacher · 22/03/2012 14:31

Rabbit - it isn't just the 50% rate, but the withdrawal of the tax free allowance at that level as well, plus the NI, so it comes to more than 50%.

Clytaemnestra · 22/03/2012 14:03

More than half comes from adding on NI contribitions, so you're actually paying more than 50%, depending on how much you earn. (IIRC it's 12% on money earned up until the HRT cut off then 2% on anything over that). So if you were paying the highest rate of tax then you were actually losing more than half of anything earned above the cut off point.

rabbitstew · 22/03/2012 13:36

CinnabarRed - 50% isn't more than half, it IS half, so I personally don't see it as psychologically restricting or a level so swingeing that it will send all wealthy people running for their yachts in order to escape these shores forever. I agree anything over 50% feels different, somehow... But doesn't your point about deferring tax just go to show that cutting the rate now means no-one will ever actually know how bearable wealthy people might have found a 50% rate (over and above the lower rates, on which all people are taxed the same amounts for those tranches of income, so it's not as if the most wealthy pay more tax on all of their income), since it hasn't been around for long enough for anyone to know (ie has been around for so short a time that people could well have been betting on an imminent fall in the tax rate and therefore adjusting their behaviour in that fairly confident expectation, knowing they were safe one way or the other because the rate was never going to go up and was almost certainly going down)????? I was hoping you would compare the rate with other countries and provide some statistics or examples of the effect of 50% rates on the most well off in other countries, rather than express a personal opinion without any evidence to back it up, as though it is an immutable fact of human nature - in good times and bad times, utterly oblivious to its environment. I know the OECD thinks 40% is the optimal tax collecting rate, for example, but have no idea how they calculated this or in what economic conditions the data was collected, or what they did about countries that appeared to fall outside the norms in terms of tolerance for tax collection (you can't, after all, compare attitudes in Greece to those in Scandinavia very easily, as the mentality to tax in both countries appears to be entirely different).

So, I'm still confused as to how you can be so confident in your opinion on this.

CinnabarRed · 21/03/2012 15:11

Relatively few of the measures will add up to significant amounts of cash, whether given away or raised.

The single biggest item is the inflation busting increase to the personal allowance from April 2013 (from £8,105 to £9,205), which will cost the Exchequer around £3.4 billion from 2013/14 onwards.

The other big winners are companies. Their tax rate will drop an extra 1p from 2012/13 to 24% (and then 23% from 2013/14 and 22% from 2014/15). The long term plan is to get to a 20% rate. This will benefit corporates to the tune of around £900 million per annum.

How will these give-aways be funded? As usual, from the banks and the oil companies. The banks will pay via a 0.105% increase in the bank levy, forecast to raise around £450 million per annum. The oil companies via the introduction of ?certainty? over the tax consequences of decommissioning, which sounded like a sensible measure to stimulate exploration when the Chancellor announced it but is something of a poisoned chalice in light of the Red Book?s forecast that it will raise around £300 million per annum.

The elderly will also pay more tax due to the phasing out of age-related allowances. ARAs will be frozen at their current level until they?re in line with the personal allowance, and will mean pensioners will pay £1 billion more in tax once the full effects kick in. Somewhat mystifyingly, the Chancellor badged this change as a Good Thing as it will make the tax system easier for them to understand, the poor dears.

As had been widely trailed, the 50p tax rate will decrease to 45p from April 2013. The Chancellor announced that it had caused massive distortions ? a staggering £16bn of income was shifted into the tax year prior to its introduction, and only raised £1 billion (which was largely offset by the effect of the foregone income). Indeed, HMRC has estimated that the 50p rate only raises £100m more per annum than a 45p rate would, but with far more damage to the UK economy.

The Chancellor has also got himself exercised over Stamp Duty Land Tax avoidance by the mega wealthy. For a start, there will be a new rate of 7% on the sales of residential properties of more than £2 million. Even more dramatically, where individuals seek to disguise transactions of residential properties in corporate vehicles then the SDLT charge will be a whopping 15% (and there will be a large annual charge on £2m plus residential properties that are already in corporate vehicles).

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CinnabarRed · 21/03/2012 12:44

I think both this and the last government are pretty good at identifying loopholes (the disclosure legislation, which obliges tax planners to disclose their schemes to HMRC before they are full implemented, has been incredibly effective) but terrible at drafting a sensible legislative response. They have generally either drafted very narrow solutions which can be readily sidestepped, or ridiculously wide solutions which catch entirely innocent situations. Personally, I'd like to see solutions with more thought put in.

I'm 100% certain the tax rate will fall from 50p to 45p, and I also think it's the right thing to do. For many, paying more than half each additional pound earned in tax is psychologically restricting. I would be staggered if the 50p tax rate has actually raised any revenue. But it must be cut from 2012 rather than 2013, because otherwise the wealthy will simply defer bonuses and dividends until 2013 and that would create a shortfall for the Chancellor.

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rabbitstew · 21/03/2012 12:01

Oooh. A couple in advance of the budget: do you think this Government will be any better than any previous governments at closing tax loopholes? And what is your view on cutting the 50% income tax rate band (assuming this is going to be done)?

CinnabarRed · 21/03/2012 10:24

I'm going to be online this afternoon for the Budget. I'll be pretty busy (I'm on maternity leave but working today in my firm's press room) but will try and pop by to answer any questions.

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rabbitstew · 02/02/2012 07:25

Aw, thank you, CinnabarRed... I like my rants to be thought of as good posts. Grin

CinnabarRed · 01/02/2012 22:16

Rabbitstew - don't you hate it when bad things happen to good posts? Grin Wink

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rabbitstew · 01/02/2012 21:26

Argh.... Points 1 and 3 justify high pay... Point 2 doesn't justify what they get to cream off. And point 4 and historical precedent explain the rest.

rabbitstew · 01/02/2012 21:23

or even, should NOT be so greedy in times of luck!... (referring to CinabarRed's post on bankers' pay, of course...).

rabbitstew · 01/02/2012 21:22

I suspect point 4 has an awful lot to do with it. Points 1 and 2 would only justify a few hundred thousand at most, for those who actually took responsibility for anyone other than themselves. As for point 3, they should be treated like the gamblers that they are if they expect huge rewards for their successes, and accept personal ruin for their mistakes. And if they don't like that idea, then they should be so greedy in times of luck.

scaryteacher · 01/02/2012 18:12

'I reckon there will be a new section on each tax return asking if a member of the household claims CB and if so to provide their NIC number. It doesn't need to be any more sophisticated than that.'

One could put yes, but how would dh know my NIC number if I didn't tell him? It's none of his business, and the fact remains that many married couples keep their financial affairs entirely separate and may not wish their spouse to know this info.

CinnabarRed · 01/02/2012 17:18

MoreBeta - I agree. I'm also very much in favour of ringfencing trading operations from retail banking operations. I see no reason why retail banking - which is the business that's too big to fail - should provide uneconomically cheap finace to the trading operations.

Regarding historic fluctuations in relative pay, that's very interesting. I would guess that the link is between bank wages and bank profits, but would need to think a bit more and see more data.

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MoreBeta · 01/02/2012 15:17

Cinnabar - I broadly agree with your last post.

However, an interesting piece of recent research highlighted by Gillian Tett at the FT suggest that City banker pay has not always been high.

According to the research paper she cited it was very high as a comparison to other jobs with similar skill levels back in 1929. It took almost the whole of the 1930s for them to fall back to the pay levels of other similar jobs and then stayed there at that level until the 1980s when they started their inexorable rise to the stratospheric level they are now.

As it happens City pay has now started falling again and the research paper suggest that it may well fall back to normal levels. Indeed footballers also used to be paid quite normal levels of pay compared to other manual workers - so maybe they will also suffer a similar fate.

I certainly think society has had enough and your point "banks... should forgoe profits earned through certain behaviours that society deems unacceptably risky or otherwise immoral," will happen. The way it will happen and is already happening is society will demand banks hold far more capital against their risky trading operations and hence the banks' ability to earn such huge profits in boom periods (and catastrophic losses in busts) will be much more limited and hence banker pay will fall over time as profits fall.

rabbitstew · 01/02/2012 15:07

Of course, footballers never used to be paid much at all, even though football has always been popular.

CinnabarRed · 01/02/2012 14:05

Latebiscuit - here are my initial thoughts on why bankers are paid the amounts they are, although it's still a work in progress and I may add to it/revise it in due course. Way back when I first started working in tax I did in fact do a small amount of remuneration benchmarking, so I'm dredging up old knowledge here.

Very broadly, the value of any macro-economic transaction, including pay negotiations, is determined by supply and demand. If demand is greater than supply then the value (wages) go up; if supply is greater than demand then the value goes down.

That's why footballers are paid a fortune - there are very, very few people in the world with the necessary skills to score goals for Manchester United say. And it's why even quite well known TV actors are paid surprisingly little - loads of people want to be actors and many of them have the skills to recite lines successfully. It's also why the length of training required to perform a job affects how much it's paid - because long training reduces supply of qualified staff.

The demand element is made up of two subsets - demand for someone (anyone) with the right skill set to fill the post, and demand for a specific person to fill the post, perhaps because s/he has skills sufficiently above the norm that they are worth paying a premium. That's why the elite of TV and film can earn megabucks - Jonathan Ross brings skills (and hence viewers) to his chat shows that others just can't.

The wages that a specific job commands also depends on what are sometimes called hygiene factors. Jobs which require unsocial hours or unpleasant physical conditions generally command more than 9-5 jobs in nice warm offices - think of dustbin men, for example.

What doesn't affect wages is how "valuable" a job is to society. Footballers will always be paid more than teachers or nurses.

Turning to bankers specifically.

First, there are very few people with the necessary atributes to be a banker -intellectual capacity, speed of reaction, ability to cope with extremely high stress - and not all of those with the right attributes actually want to be bankers. That means that the supply of suitable people is very low.

Secondly, bankers, and traders in particular, can make fortunes for their employers in a matter of days through speculation or deals. And so demand is very high. (You could argue, of course, that demand shouldn't be so high, that banks should forgoe profits earned through certain behaviours that society deems unacceptably risky or otherwise immoral, but that's an entirely separate argument - one that Rabbitstew raises above.)

Thirdly, the job is incredibly high stress and involves hellishly long hours, which means that hygiene factors also come into play.

Fourthly, and this point is my opinion rather than demostrable fact, I suspect that the "jobs for the boys" culture also inflates wages because it prevents challenge of the status quo, and hence change.

Hope that all makes sense. Happy to be challenged on my logic by anyone interested!

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rabbitstew · 01/02/2012 11:49

latebreakfast - bankers can expect huge amounts of money because they are magicians. They make and lose money by playing about with money. They have virtually no connection to the real, physical world and what earnt the money in the first place and therefore don't feel they have to follow its rules. Unfortunately, they thought they were clever, mathematically minded magicians but it turns out that if you start out with nothing concrete, you end up with nothing concrete, even if you are a magician. And the effect of all the money magic is to cause the physical world to disintegrate.

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