(Lack of) US Iran Peace Agreement Part 5

I have to correct myself here

It was in front of the UN

@RedTagAlan ,

I don’t necessarily disagree with a lot of your above post.What are Iran supposed to do ?

‘Because really, in that case, that is an incentive for them to have a bomb. I am sure Trumps pal Kim has had a chat with them about that. Hey dudes, get a bomb and he will leave you alone.’

That calculus is fundamentally correct. However, Iran really messed it up. You can’t be threatening to destroy the ‘great and little Saran’ while simultaneously trying to get just the weapons where you might one day just be able to do it. Sensibly enough, the ‘satans’ will stop you before you get there.

‘Meanwhile Trump changes like the wind. So much so, that other nations, friendly ones, are discussing if they should have the bomb too.’

This is true. I can see Europe and Canada wanting bombs, as well as maybe Japan sometime soon.

‘So what is this ball game that Iran are not playing ? Because where I am sat, it looks like they are playing HIS ball game. Threats and brinkmanship’

Well, as I said, we know what the game is, even if it isn’t a fair one. Remember Trump just the other day said a trade deficit was the same as a loss! That is his level of comprehension. Iran did have better options than the ones it is choosing, which will ultimately bring the entire world (minus China (maybe) and Russia) against it. But the Iranian leaders don’t care about their people at all. I wonder what outcome they actually want here?

Trump to Iran - Give up any idea of making a bomb or I will destroy you.

What are Iran supposed to do ? Because really, in that case, that is an incentive for them to have a bomb. I am sure Trumps pal Kim has had a chat with them about that. Hey dudes, get a bomb and he will leave you alone.

Then we have the Obama era P45+1 JCPOA. Give up making a bomb, let the inspectors in, and we will reward you.

Meanwhile Trump changes like the wind. So much so, that other nations, friendly ones, are discussing if they should have the bomb too.

So what is this ball game that Iran are not playing ? Because where I am sat, it looks like they are playing HIS ball game. Threats and brinkmanship.

I could, to be fair, suspect you quietly admire the Iranian regime

You would be completely wrong.

@TopPocketFind ,

‘You have a lot of faith in Trump and the US still, or maybe some admiration?’

No, not really. I see why he got in and the reason the left got a well deserved comeuppance.

However, I detest his manner and his lack of ability to focus on anything for any period of time. He is also an autocrat by nature who has undermined a lot of America’s checks and balances.

I also think that he is a bit thick and maybe a bit senile, two qualities you really don’t want in someone controlling nuclear weapons.

I also think this is an appallingly managed war, which the U.S were never going to win the way they thought. Immoral? Not so sure, though. Iran has been a force for evil throughout the Middle East ever since it became a theocracy and a long time pre Netanyahu.

Regardless of how it started, though, and how unlikely it is, I would still like the U.S to not lose against Iran. I think Iran proudly controlling access to all middle eastern oil would be a disaster for us all.

(I could, to be fair, suspect you quietly admire the Iranian regime).

@RedTagAlan ,

They were meant to be shocked and awed by the U.S first attack, give up their nuclear material and co-operate with Trump over cheap oil. It was meant to be Venezuela Mk2 in his mind.

I think it is more nuanced who broke the MOU. Here is an article in Al Jazeera about why it failed and both sides thought the other broke it (it is appallingly worded).

www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/17/us-iran-memorandum-of-understanding-expires-how-and-why-it-fell-apart

@Newbutoldfather That is your interpretation

You have a lot of faith in Trump and the US still, or maybe some admiration?

Quote " The problem is that Iran isn’t playing ball, so now he is stuck."

What ball are they supposed to be playing ?

They did agree to Trumps MOU, before Trump decided he did not agree with it.

@TopPocketFind ,

‘As I said it is getting harder to dismiss it as some old man's rantings.’

He didn’t say or mean nukes.

Might he totally destroy Iran with conventional weapons? Well, he could, but I don’t think Trump is mad in that way. Would he take out the bridges and power stations, as he has threatened to? I still think it is a relatively low probability, but it is non zero. He would see that as an aggressive negotiating tool. But, if he did, and Iran didn’t capitulate, what would he have left to threaten? And he would be accused by some of war crimes.

I think he actually wants allies to help him more, both in sanctions and in opening up sea lanes. He would also love any kind of a half way decent deal with Iran and to finish this venture.

His entire shtick, from his days as a businessman, is go in with a maximal threat/offer before agreeing to something more reasonable. The problem is that Iran isn’t playing ball, so now he is stuck.

They only made about 20 MOABs. And they have used 1. Probably tested others.

Once the Iranian war is over, regardless of who 'wins', history will not record US actions well. Mind you, Trump might well decide facts are 'fake news' and demand US history books be rewritten.

He is making these threats in front of NATO

And nobody is stopping him saying it.

As I said it is getting harder to dismiss it as some old man's rantings.

Usual Trump strongman bluster. Imagine the global outcry if the US used a nuke!

@TopPocketFind ,

He ruled out nukes last time he made that kind of a threat.

The U.S have an abundance of large conventional weapons that get can use, including MOABs.

If I had to make a bet on the next time a nuke is used in anger, I would either bet on Israel using a nuke on Pickaxe mountain, assuming they thought Iran was actually close to its own nuke, or Pakistan/India fighting in the Punjab.

Trump at the NATO meeting today. It's getting more difficult to say to ignore him or that he will not use nukes

Eleven minutes into a 40-minute address, the US president announced he had “a big decision to make” over Iran

Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild, and create a far greater country than it ever was before?” he asked. “Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy people and countries again? Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness or generations?”

‘Oil below $100 as Iran 'makes strait of Hormuz offer'’

I am not sure a lot of credence is being given to this. Oil is down about 3%, which is significant but not huge in today’s volatile market.

Why 7 days and not effective immediately. Maybe they need time to communicate with the groups intercepting ships? But maybe they are looking to a week of income and preparing ballistic missiles and drones.

I don’t think there is a lot of trust between the sides, and rightly so.

Only just seen the news so haven't had time to look at details, but yes, Voyager is hose and drogue.

That makes it compatible with probe equipped aircraft such as Typhoon and most stuff as seen in the US Navy/US Marine inventory (e.g. F-18).

USAF types (F-15) are generally designed for receiving from a boom only.

.Retrofitting a boom Voyager would IMO mean major design and engineering work.

That link is blocked their end, for me. Geoblocked.

71 Typhoons is a fair amount. No wonder they are asking Euro nations for help if the tankers are mostly compatible. It's a complex business, this compatibility.

Thanks @TopPocketFind , I wondered why both oil and gold prices were falling.

Oil below $100 as Iran 'makes strait of Hormuz offer'

Newsflash: The oil price has dipped below the $100 a barrel level.
This follows a report on the Kyodo news service that Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States takes initial steps toward easing military pressure.
One senior Iranian government official told Kyodo:
“There is a possibility of moving toward an agreement.”
But the official added that Washington must demonstrate “seriousness and commitment” if diplomacy is to advance.

Neil Wilson of Saxo Markets says:
Pressured by its exports grinding to a halt the economic toll is being felt in Tehran and it seems to be pinning hopes on this offer ending the stalemate.
This looks too good an offer for Trump to turn down ahead of his key week with Xi and with polls indicating voter dissatisfaction of his handling the Iran war and economy ahead of the mid-terms, which are looking like the Democrats could take both houses.
As ever with US-Iran chatter and rumours this needs to be taken with a grain of salt but should it hold it’s going to mean crude holds lower, which would take the pressure of bond yields.

The Guardian

That website is a gold mine of info.

2026 IRAN CONFLICT — MILITARY LOSSES TRACKER
176 documented military equipment losses since 28 February 2026 — 144 aircraft and 32 naval vessels (Iran 81, United States 69, Israel 21). Latest recorded event: 16 September 2026.

https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/iran-2026/

Can you access this link @RedTagAlan ?

https://www.globalmilitary.net/air_forces/sau/

(Saudi have 71 operational Typhoons) or fewer, depending on whether Iran hit a few.

As I said, there is a lot of stuff I can't get.

This SA/Houthi war has been going on for a long time.

Interestingly, FA/18's can be land based and in 2022
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-marine-f-a-18s-deployed-to-saudi-arabias-iran/

I'm not disputing SA not having any. This is just background info.