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Conflict in the Middle East

Trumps senior counter terrorism officer resigns due to the war with Iran and has said they only went to war because of Israeli pressure, not because of any imminent threat from Iran.

212 replies

BerthaPotts · 17/03/2026 15:49

If that is really the case will this not be very damning for Trump? How will he respond to this?

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EasternStandard · 20/03/2026 07:36

Islandsofsand · 19/03/2026 18:47

Of course, and that is why we would have needed to see that they allowed inspections etc. - whatever experts would have deemed appropriate to monitor the risks.

The post above shows that the Iranians were also willing to make significant concessions.

I would say the 10 year time scale would have also allowed due processes to be followed in terms of getting UN mandate prior attacking Iran.

I don’t mind discussing the reality of inspections stopping all progress. I’m not sure if they get full access to all sites or there’s an ability to develop out of sight.

Great if that is foolproof, if not though I’m not sure why people aren’t concerned about the potential for how it would end as put in pp being MAD.

TooBigForMyBoots · 20/03/2026 00:04

Notonthestairs · 19/03/2026 17:55

So how does this end then?
The article I linked earlier to doesn’t seem to find an easy answer to it.

If we look at the history of US intervention in the ME, Russia benefits, individuals benefit and radical groups like the Ayatollah regime, Taliban and ISIS benefit.

Normal, everyday people lose.
Us, as well as the victims in Iran, Lebanon, the Gulf, Israel, Ukraine and beyond. Even Trump voting, US citizen patriots suffer.😒

Islandsofsand · 19/03/2026 18:47

EasternStandard · 19/03/2026 18:27

The problem is waiting to get closer to the end of that timing doesn’t make things easier, but harder.

Edited

Of course, and that is why we would have needed to see that they allowed inspections etc. - whatever experts would have deemed appropriate to monitor the risks.

The post above shows that the Iranians were also willing to make significant concessions.

I would say the 10 year time scale would have also allowed due processes to be followed in terms of getting UN mandate prior attacking Iran.

BelleHathor · 19/03/2026 18:41

Islandsofsand · 19/03/2026 18:06

If the threat was 10 years plus in coming into fruition, then there would have been time to relook at how a diplomatic solution could have worked. There are sources that say significant inroads were being made.

No-one has said that the issue should be ignored.

Edited

The Cheif Diplomat of Oman Badr Albusaidi (who was closely involved in the recent talks between America and Iran) wrote an Op-ed for the Economist, stating:

“America has lost control of its own foreign policy,” and Washington’s allies should help extricate it “from this unwanted entanglement”.

......Albusaidi blamed “Israel’s leadership” for persuading Trump to join the war on the false basis that Iran’s regime would offer an “unconditional surrender” after the assassination of its supreme leader Ali Khamenei.
“The American administration’s greatest miscalculation, of course, was allowing itself to be drawn into this war in the first place,” he wrote. “This is not America’s war, and there is no likely scenario in which both Israel and America will get what they want from it.”

Guardian link as original article behind a paywall

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/19/us-lost-control-of-its-own-foreign-policy-oman-foreign-minister

Surprisingly, the Britain's national security advisor, who attended the last talks in Geneva confirmed that Iran had offered significant concessions and that a deal was on the table. It may explain Starmer's reluctance to help Trump:

"UK officials have subsequently explained they were impressed that Iran was prepared for the deal to be permanent and, unlike the 2015 nuclear agreement, would not have cut-off dates, or sunset clauses ending the restrictions on its programme.

Iran had also agreed to down-blend the 440kg stockpile of highly enriched uranium under the supervision of the IAEA inside Iran. It agreed no stockpiles of highly enriched uranium would be built up in the future."

Also notable is this:
"One Gulf diplomat with knowledge of the talks said: “We regarded Witkoff and Kushner as Israeli assets that dragged a president into a war he wants to get out of.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/17/uk-security-adviser-attended-us-iran-talks-and-judged-deal-was-within-reach

Diplomatic options were still on the table, this is 100% a war of choice.

Oman claims Israel pushed US into Iran war when deal was possible

Foreign minister claims Israel convinced Donald Trump to make ‘grave miscalculation’ of waging war on Iran

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/19/us-lost-control-of-its-own-foreign-policy-oman-foreign-minister

EasternStandard · 19/03/2026 18:27

Islandsofsand · 19/03/2026 18:21

So no matter what people may think about Joe Kent- he may have been right.

Edited

The problem is waiting to get closer to the end of that timing doesn’t make things easier, but harder.

Islandsofsand · 19/03/2026 18:21

So no matter what people may think about Joe Kent- he may have been right.

Islandsofsand · 19/03/2026 18:18

For the purposes of the original post, it does not matter that there are posters who believe that 10 years is imminent, it would what the U.S. intelligence agencies thought. As already posted- they appear to have thought 10 years did not equal imminent.

The second part of the suggestion was the war was done due to pressure by Israel. Rubio did initially suggest that.

Islandsofsand · 19/03/2026 18:06

If the threat was 10 years plus in coming into fruition, then there would have been time to relook at how a diplomatic solution could have worked. There are sources that say significant inroads were being made.

No-one has said that the issue should be ignored.

Notonthestairs · 19/03/2026 17:55

So how does this end then?
The article I linked earlier to doesn’t seem to find an easy answer to it.

EasternStandard · 19/03/2026 17:51

Twiglets1 · 19/03/2026 17:12

It's so strange.

@Twiglets1I’m glad you can see the problem with just ignoring the issue, reading the posts.

MushMonster · 19/03/2026 17:50

It is called Chaos or Khaos indeed.
Let's name Trump as the winner, hand it to him and call it a day.

MushMonster · 19/03/2026 17:49

Who is the greek God of chaos? Maybe we can create a Nobel Prize of chaos. Trump is, by far, the winner. Netanyahu can hand it to him.

MushMonster · 19/03/2026 17:48

I fully agree, no good oitcome to be seen on the horizon. It looks grim.

MissyB1 · 19/03/2026 17:47

TooBigForMyBoots · 19/03/2026 17:44

Exactly, there are no good outcomes left. Not for Iran, not for the wider region and not for the USA.😒

This is a pointless, illegal, expensive and dangerous war. The expense and danger will continue long after Trump gets bored and decided he's had enough "winning" and "laughs"Hmm and walks away. Leaving total chaos in his wake.

Edited

Chaos is what Trump does unfortunately, in fact I would say he’s addicted to it, it gives him a thrill.

EasternStandard · 19/03/2026 17:47

TooBigForMyBoots · 19/03/2026 17:44

Exactly, there are no good outcomes left. Not for Iran, not for the wider region and not for the USA.😒

This is a pointless, illegal, expensive and dangerous war. The expense and danger will continue long after Trump gets bored and decided he's had enough "winning" and "laughs"Hmm and walks away. Leaving total chaos in his wake.

Edited

Ignoring the problem doesn’t make it go away. It just gets more insurmountable.

MushMonster · 19/03/2026 17:46

Iran's population is, indeed, higher than 90 million. It is a bit higher than 93 million.

Notonthestairs · 19/03/2026 17:45

TooBigForMyBoots · 19/03/2026 17:21

There are no good choices left. The regime stays and continues its nuclear programme. Or the regime falls and the uranium ends up in the hands of whoever gets to it first.

Trump and Netenyahu have really fucked up.

No there aren’t - just as this article sets out.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/how-americas-war-iran-backfired

How America’s War on Iran Backfired

Seventeen years ago, while serving as an Iran desk officer in the U.S. State Department, I asked a more veteran colleague about the latest inflammatory statement by Mahmood Ahmadinejad, then the Iranian president. My colleague responded: “Stop paying a...

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/how-americas-war-iran-backfired

TooBigForMyBoots · 19/03/2026 17:44

MushMonster · 19/03/2026 17:33

The idea of a 90+ million people country been left on the hands of unexperienced politically military people, hating the West, trigger easy and rogue gives me nightmares. The idea of the weapons they have, the uranium, the location and assets of Iran on even a darker box, with even more hate for the West, and possibly, the neighbours is far too much to bear. And it is one of the possible outcomes of this!

Exactly, there are no good outcomes left. Not for Iran, not for the wider region and not for the USA.😒

This is a pointless, illegal, expensive and dangerous war. The expense and danger will continue long after Trump gets bored and decided he's had enough "winning" and "laughs"Hmm and walks away. Leaving total chaos in his wake.

EasternStandard · 19/03/2026 17:35

MushMonster · 19/03/2026 17:33

The idea of a 90+ million people country been left on the hands of unexperienced politically military people, hating the West, trigger easy and rogue gives me nightmares. The idea of the weapons they have, the uranium, the location and assets of Iran on even a darker box, with even more hate for the West, and possibly, the neighbours is far too much to bear. And it is one of the possible outcomes of this!

It’s not the 90m people. They probably share the fear the IRGC will get weapons as it’s a threat to them nearly more than anyone. If the leaders use it they will likely be hit in return.

They also don’t want to be brutalised by the same people much longer.

inamarina · 19/03/2026 17:33

Notonthestairs · 19/03/2026 15:43

Russia will be very happy with your redrafting of international law.

As if Russia concerned itself with international law.

MushMonster · 19/03/2026 17:33

TooBigForMyBoots · 19/03/2026 17:21

There are no good choices left. The regime stays and continues its nuclear programme. Or the regime falls and the uranium ends up in the hands of whoever gets to it first.

Trump and Netenyahu have really fucked up.

The idea of a 90+ million people country been left on the hands of unexperienced politically military people, hating the West, trigger easy and rogue gives me nightmares. The idea of the weapons they have, the uranium, the location and assets of Iran on even a darker box, with even more hate for the West, and possibly, the neighbours is far too much to bear. And it is one of the possible outcomes of this!

MushMonster · 19/03/2026 17:28

Notonthestairs · 19/03/2026 16:10

So it is about regime change? Because if you leave the regime in place its going to circle back to nuclear pretty damn fast.

That is the big question indeed.
Trump has yet not set clearly whether it is or not. It is not listed on his priority targets. But then he has said he was thinking of some of the guys he killed ( who were IRGC!!!) but they are all dead now. He is not so keen on the shah's son, because he prefers someone from the inside. Then that Trump himself will choose the successor, or at least, play a major role on it. Now, it is a few days that regime change is not mentioned.
So, no one really knows what the world will face after this war.
But 100% sure Putin is getting fresh cash, Trump keeps attempting to bully the other NATO countries, the price of oil is climbing, we are to face a new COL crisis, on top of what we already have. And some people are already suffering due to shortages in oil and gas supply. Soon to add the fertiliser supply issue.
At least, for the Iraq war they bothered to make it look like it had some sense.
Here, it looks messy, unplanned and basically espintaneous. Like an excyrsion, rather than a war, to them.
And, now, since yesterday, it looks like US and Israel are not even fully on the same page! Or so they say. And lashing out, in anger....
It is precarious, volatile, dangerous and I think it is getting out of control.
Nothing or no one has been liberated or got improved living, so far. On the contrary. So far, it is a huge mess.

EasternStandard · 19/03/2026 17:27

TooBigForMyBoots · 19/03/2026 17:21

There are no good choices left. The regime stays and continues its nuclear programme. Or the regime falls and the uranium ends up in the hands of whoever gets to it first.

Trump and Netenyahu have really fucked up.

No one else will use it even if they have it, Russia etc have weapons already.

As per U v d L no one thinks Iran having never capability is a good choice.

TooBigForMyBoots · 19/03/2026 17:21

Notonthestairs · 19/03/2026 16:10

So it is about regime change? Because if you leave the regime in place its going to circle back to nuclear pretty damn fast.

There are no good choices left. The regime stays and continues its nuclear programme. Or the regime falls and the uranium ends up in the hands of whoever gets to it first.

Trump and Netenyahu have really fucked up.

Twiglets1 · 19/03/2026 17:12

EasternStandard · 19/03/2026 16:06

Because people don’t care about 8 to ten years away even if it could be life ending for nearly all in a wide vicinity. Even on here people say so what about Iran having nuclear as it’s not immediate.

It's so strange.