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Conflict in the Middle East

Are people still rejoicing about Iran?

338 replies

binnibonnieboo · 09/03/2026 10:41

When Israel and the US took out Khamenei there was a thread on how great it was. Some of us expressed that it may not end well, given how forced regime change went previously in many countries. We were told to stop "leftsplaining" to Iranians. How do those people think it's going so far?

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MushMonster · 17/03/2026 16:55

Unfortunatelly, they all knew that Hormuz would be closed. There are huge number of people depending on that oil for heating, food preparation, transport, work and so on and on.
It is not "only" the price, but the supply itself.
The talks are being held by the governments of countries which depend on the movement of that oil to keep their population warm, fed and the country working.

I do wonder, indeed, how much control the Iran PM has on Iran and how much the IRGs do....

I cannot afford to pay any more than I currently pay for my bills. It is a sad reality, but it is my reality.

They stopped shooting at each other last year, after talks. We can only hope that they sort something, more lasting, this time.

EasternStandard · 17/03/2026 13:16

MushMonster · 17/03/2026 11:23

Indeed, newspapers are reporting EU talks about the Strait too. The Iranian Foreign minister did speak around the weekend and it sounded to me like he was inviting/ expecting to negotiate.
Let's cross our fingers. I cannot afford to pay that much for fuel, plus the raising costs of everything!

Do you want to negotiate with the IRGC?

Perhaps that’s why they haven’t been proscribed. Just generally, it must put limits on what can be negotiated, hence their ability in this situation. Everyone ignores the brutality.

MissyB1 · 17/03/2026 12:48

MushMonster · 17/03/2026 11:25

I think we should still try, if we do have any stranded ships or crew there.
There are not many rules in war.

Yes we could, and to be honest who says we can’t change our mind about the air bases…

MushMonster · 17/03/2026 11:25

MissyB1 · 17/03/2026 08:29

If we hadn’t agreed to let the US use the air bases here we could probably have done the same.

I think we should still try, if we do have any stranded ships or crew there.
There are not many rules in war.

MushMonster · 17/03/2026 11:23

JaneFondue · 17/03/2026 08:18

Indian ships now passing through the Strait after talks with Iran.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg2m8zp2n3o
More and more countries are going to do this instead of sending warships because Trump ordered them to.

Indeed, newspapers are reporting EU talks about the Strait too. The Iranian Foreign minister did speak around the weekend and it sounded to me like he was inviting/ expecting to negotiate.
Let's cross our fingers. I cannot afford to pay that much for fuel, plus the raising costs of everything!

BelleHathor · 17/03/2026 10:11

JaneFondue · 17/03/2026 09:23

Non-alignment. A long practice of India's, allying with no one.

Yup, Tomato/Tomahto, India will now have to navigate this new climate based on their friendships.

Will Trump help? after all his bullying over Russian oil. Perhaps Modi can call Bibi who visited in Israel 3 weeks ago

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260226-brothers-in-arms-modi-and-netanyahu-deep-ties-remain-unshakable

The point is that India is already running out of energy, with some restaurants already affected.

https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260313-cooking-gas-crisis-india-restaurants-war-iran

Brothers-in-arms: How Modi and Netanyahu are bringing India and Israel closer together

In a two-day visit to Tel Aviv that ended on Thursday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a decisive, public tilt toward Israel and away from India's historically nonaligned position. The decision…

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260226-brothers-in-arms-modi-and-netanyahu-deep-ties-remain-unshakable

EasternStandard · 17/03/2026 09:38

The strait is a way to do whatever. The IRGC can brutalise the people and proceed with weapon production knowing some will ask for passage.

We haven’t proscribed the IRGC for a start, and many will prioritise getting passage over what Iran could do in five to ten years with greater weapon capability. It’s politicians kicking the problem to younger people.

The politician is then gone and how do you deal with a stronger IRGC? Just hope they don’t fulfil their aims.

JaneFondue · 17/03/2026 09:23

BelleHathor · 17/03/2026 09:02

The India situation is complicated, and likely won't succeed in the long term.

Remember that India has still not condemned the unilateral attack by Israel and America on Iran.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/direct-talks-with-iran-on-ship-passage-yielded-results-eam/articleshow/129618465.cms

Also it was after leaving a Naval exercise hosted by India that the Americans sunk an unarmed Iranian ship the IRIS Dena which Trump joked "it was more fun to sink".

There are already conversations going on within BRICS about India's duplicitous actions and always kkeeping one foot in the American camp. Even Russia is no longer offering India a discount on Oil and is actually charging them a premium.

On the UK, regardless of the Air base use we would not be allowed through. We've been fully involved in all the regional fronts over the last 2+ years. We're just more skilled at keeping our involvement hidden.

Non-alignment. A long practice of India's, allying with no one.

BelleHathor · 17/03/2026 09:02

The India situation is complicated, and likely won't succeed in the long term.

Remember that India has still not condemned the unilateral attack by Israel and America on Iran.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/direct-talks-with-iran-on-ship-passage-yielded-results-eam/articleshow/129618465.cms

Also it was after leaving a Naval exercise hosted by India that the Americans sunk an unarmed Iranian ship the IRIS Dena which Trump joked "it was more fun to sink".

There are already conversations going on within BRICS about India's duplicitous actions and always kkeeping one foot in the American camp. Even Russia is no longer offering India a discount on Oil and is actually charging them a premium.

On the UK, regardless of the Air base use we would not be allowed through. We've been fully involved in all the regional fronts over the last 2+ years. We're just more skilled at keeping our involvement hidden.

Iran Ship Passage Talks: India backs talks with Iran as US seeks naval coalition to secure Hormuz | India News - The Times of India

India News: NEW DELHI: Amidst calls by the US for a multinational naval coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz, India Monday backed its own direct engagement wi.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/direct-talks-with-iran-on-ship-passage-yielded-results-eam/articleshow/129618465.cms

MissyB1 · 17/03/2026 08:29

JaneFondue · 17/03/2026 08:18

Indian ships now passing through the Strait after talks with Iran.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg2m8zp2n3o
More and more countries are going to do this instead of sending warships because Trump ordered them to.

If we hadn’t agreed to let the US use the air bases here we could probably have done the same.

JaneFondue · 17/03/2026 08:18

Indian ships now passing through the Strait after talks with Iran.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg2m8zp2n3o
More and more countries are going to do this instead of sending warships because Trump ordered them to.

A man looks at the Liberia-flagged crude oil tanker Shenlong Suezmax which successfully docked at Mumbai Port after navigating the high-risk Strait of Hormuz amid the intensifying West Asia conflict on 11 March 2026.

Strait of Hormuz: India hopes talks with Iran will ease route for ships

Foreign Minister S Jaishankar told FT there was no "blanket arrangement" for Indian ships to pass through the strait.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg2m8zp2n3o

DaffodilsandDillies · 16/03/2026 21:51

Ha ! No I don't love to catastrophise

But petrol makes the world go around there have been plenty of articles over the past few days setting out clear comparisons with the fuel blockade years ago , Ukraine and other oil pinch points.

Things can definatly deteriorate pretty fast !
Fertiliser is being held up ! As we hit growing season...grains and all sorts.

Twiglets1 · 16/03/2026 21:36

1dayatatime · 16/03/2026 21:23

Sorry but after Covid I'm not buying any "call wolf" predictions of global meltdown and catastrophe.

Me neither.

There are always people who love to catastrophise. They seem to actually enjoy getting themselves and others worked up about worst case scenarios. We saw it during Covid & we see it now.

I prefer to just wait & see what happens. Not good for mental health to live in fear of imminent doom all the time.

1dayatatime · 16/03/2026 21:23

DaffodilsandDillies · 16/03/2026 17:26

Im sensing some panic from trump .
We could be facing a global catastrophe ,BP ex man saying in weeks food shortages will hit us and all the rest .
Petrol rationed.

Sorry but after Covid I'm not buying any "call wolf" predictions of global meltdown and catastrophe.

Twiglets1 · 16/03/2026 19:25

RedTagAlan · 16/03/2026 16:40

Article here. Take it up with Sir John Scarlett. He said it.

'Unsurprising' supreme leader remains unseen, says former MI6 chief | UK News | Sky News

I'm not taking it up with anyone ... time will tell.

inamarina · 16/03/2026 19:24

DaffodilsandDillies · 16/03/2026 17:33

@MushMonster my point was to the poster who said he's got loads of sons .
So if there are healthy stapling sons to step in why choose one so badly injured !

Yes, I was wondering about that too.
It looks like he was injured (possibly badly) on the 28th of February, yet elected the next supreme leader on the 8th of March.

DaffodilsandDillies · 16/03/2026 17:33

@MushMonster my point was to the poster who said he's got loads of sons .
So if there are healthy stapling sons to step in why choose one so badly injured !

MushMonster · 16/03/2026 17:32

@DaffodilsandDillies the Supreme Leader is elected. It is not inherited. I have no clue if there are any other sons that qualify for the post.
Also, if the new Supreme Leader is in a coma, that means that Iran is now in the hands of the Revolutionary Guards, which are the ones who do the actual torture, imprisonment, killing and terrorising of Iranians and other Middle East areas. No idea how much control the Prime Minister would have.
We do not really know whether this war is going to leave in place a milder fairer government or an even worst horror. And this is of extreme importance. Yet Trump did not seem to have a set plan.
But let's pray for a better future.

DaffodilsandDillies · 16/03/2026 17:31

I think it's a good thing the USA has said enough re Iran however I don't think it's been thought through. I know they had to be a surprise when they attacked but the strait seems an odd oversight.
Seeing as this could have deeply serious impacts on us with food rations ,petrol rationed and the likes ....I think it's panic time unless that straight is opened.

DaffodilsandDillies · 16/03/2026 17:26

Im sensing some panic from trump .
We could be facing a global catastrophe ,BP ex man saying in weeks food shortages will hit us and all the rest .
Petrol rationed.

FernandoSor · 16/03/2026 17:26

MushMonster · 16/03/2026 17:02

Why would US pay more for an item that they are producing internally?
It is not international trade, but trade within their own borders.

Because oil is sold on a free market and oil companies aren’t charities. Why sell a barrel at $50 when someone will pay $100?

DaffodilsandDillies · 16/03/2026 17:23

@Namingbaba but if loads of other healthy sons could take over why give it to one apparntly missing a leg in a coma

MushMonster · 16/03/2026 17:14

If there is any rule that ties their internal oil prices to international markets, they can change it any time they want. It is their own soil, own product and many of the big oil companies are American.
While we have to trade internationally.
Even if the supply is not at risk itself, the prices today are rather high. And we would have to jump through many hurdles to control the price with trade agreements with our suppliers.
Trump is a bullie, but not stupid.and he knows where he can get his money from Europe. Tariffs, fuel prices, further involvement in a war we did not start, further pressure from Putin, and further restriction to trade.

inamarina · 16/03/2026 17:07

RedTagAlan · 16/03/2026 16:01

40 days mourning apparently. Sky news had a bit about it yesterday with an ex MI6 boss. It's a theocracy, so they need to do their religious rules. He is their Pope equivalent. Religion comes first.

Is it a religious requirement to completely stay out of public eye for the 40 days of mourning, even when elected the new supreme leader in wartime? Who knows.
We’ll see what happens after the 40 days are over I suppose.

MushMonster · 16/03/2026 17:02

FernandoSor · 16/03/2026 16:51

The UK doesn't need Gulf oil any more than the US does - all our imported oil comes from Norway and the US, with smaller amounts from Libya and Nigeria, none of which are affected by the current war.

But everyone, including the US, needs the Gulf open again - because we all pay the same price for oil regardless of where it is produced. And that price has doubled since the war started. Just because the US is a net exporter of oil doesn't mean they get a discount - they are being hit with huge price rises just the same as everyone else.

Why would US pay more for an item that they are producing internally?
It is not international trade, but trade within their own borders.

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