Iranian War Is Not The Same As Iraq

Yes he does but I highly doubt he is going to claim "regime change" as you suggested. Time will tell.

It's not as if TACO Trump ever goes back on what he says ?

Iran is divided - some are very unhappy with the new appointment, others celebrating. It remains to be seen how long this leader lasts as Trump & Netanyahu are out to assassinate him.

he doesn’t get a choice.

Trump has said a lot of things, that doesn’t make them true, and the reality is that while Trump said he will pick the new leader, he doesn’t have that power.

The Israelis have said they hope the Iranian people rise up. But many of the Iranians have been celebrating.

Highly doubt it.

He said that choice would be unacceptable so he’s not going to meekly accept it now.

Trump will claim it is regime change.

And note how there’s been not a word from Trump.

Ayatollah‘s son has been named as the next supreme leader.

It was always going to end up like this. Anyone who thought this was going to end up in regime change was naive.

It feels a lot different to Iraq. I can't imagine the US being able to topple the Iranian regime like they got rid of Saddam and the Ba'ath party. It's too deeply embedded and powerful. Plus, the Ayatollah is the head of Shia Muslims worldwide. He's not just some dictator.

Trump seems incredibly naïve and arrogant believing he can pick the next Iranian leader. There would have to be a lot of bloodshed before he got close to that, and not just in Iran.

Agree. He will claim victory no matter what.

This war could strengthen the Iranian regime. Trump has not planned this. There is no budget. No specific stock of ammo. He is raiding the exiting stockpiles that are kept to defend from and to act on, other events. He is raiding the piggy bank to go on a bender.

When the ammo get so low it leaves the US and other allies open to attack, he will have to pull out.

And then the Iranian regime can yell, " See how we have defeated the Great Satan".

@RedTagAlan That gives him a way to claim a victory.
"I destroyed X missile sites. Now I can stop and I have won"
.

Iranians seem hopeful I hope for them too.
Yes @Eastern I am hopeful for them too.
I see that Trump is dropping Regime Change as a reason for this war now.

Of course it’s part of the same issue. The earlier example of Russians fighting do not to it because they want to it’s because they face brutality if they do not. Not many 20 year olds want to be part of a meat storm as they call it.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Iranian army too suffers duress and if cut off from the command that orders them would step aside and not shoot protestors. Hopefully unite with Iranians.

I think some are keen for it to fail, Iranians seem hopeful I hope for them too.

It's also worth noting that the Whitehouse has dropped regime change as a reason.

Per CNN

"The US goals are to destroy the regime’s ballistic missile program, “annihilate” Iran’s naval presence in the region, dismantle Iran’s terrorist proxies and prevent it from pursuing a nuclear weapon. Leavitt said regime change was not a primary objective."

You are right that I don't know how these people are feeling. However let us look back. The German Army did not overthrow the Waffen SS. The East German Army did not rebel against the use of the Stasi. The Iranian army did not revolt against the Shah or the secret police,(Savak) of the 1960s and 70s
Any opposition is treated as treason, meetings are banned. The IRGC can take whatever action it deems necessary. It cannot be challenged in the courts because there are no laws to restrain them. The IRGC cannot be challenged on the streets because the people have no weapons or training in how to use them.
In my humble opinion there can be no change without the army rebelling against the state.
The situation will have to get far worse than it is now before that rebellion happens.

Except Trump is taking the VZ oil.

Why the Trump administration is holding millions of dollars from Venezuelan oil sales in a Qatari bank | CNN Business

Also, investment in oil drilling/extracting/refining does depend on oil price.

So while it should be easy to dismiss oil as a conspiracy, it's not.

Because remember a while ago when Trump had the US oil execs at the Whitehouse to get the billions of investment for his VZ oil. Most said no, because of the cost coupled withe low oil price. Only Chevron would take it because they already use it. The other refiners who handle the Canadian Tar sands in their US Gulf coast refineries said no. Because Canadian worked out cheaper.

In that WH meeting, the oil folk would have said a minimum oil price to make investment profitable.

The oil conspiracies really are not so easy to dismiss.

And? The point is you don’t know how the people in the Iranian army are feeling and at what point they unite with the people.

Yes @EasternStandard But Putin is still there and will be for a while yet.

The people in the army could be thinking many things including being more united with the people than currently able to show. Look at how Putin gets people to fight for him, the chain of command shoots people who refuse.

If that can be taken out perhaps the people sadly losing their lives for a dictatorship would actually be pretty pleased too.

That was the supposed argument around the US intervention into Venezuela in order to get take control of their heavy sour crude reserves.

But if that was indeed the objective then a) Venezuela still has sovereignty over it's own oil reserves and can sell to whoever it likes (so what has changed?)and b) rather than start a very very expensive war it would be far more cost effective for the US Government to subsidise/ tax break US company investment into heavy sour tar sands production in places like Utah, where there's loads of the stuff, it's just the extraction is so expensive.

I agree that oil reserves and keeping countries with them on your side was a real driver up to 50 years ago or during the Cold War.

But it is now no longer the case and is simply used as a lazy conspiracy theory "it's all about the oil".

Oh! no. I am not sure about anything like that.
So far the IRGC is dominant. They recently killed thousands of ordinary (mainly) young adults. I understand that there have been no defections from the Army, so the people who are unarmed have so little power against the IRGC.
There is talk of USA recruiting a new army from greater Kurdistan, but that would leave a weaker Kurdistan that could be overwhelmed by an opportunistic Iraq.

If it is fought as a 'conventional' war there will have to be boots on the ground. my earlier question; From where?

Israel has to end Iran to survive the way it has chosen. Would a small nuke provide their answer?

How are you so sure what the Iranian people will do and how many are united against the IRGC?

"A short war"
"Home by Christmas"
Do you recognise those phrases?
Iraq and Iran were at war for nearly 10 years. Casualties over 500,000.
Iran is a huge country, It has continuous history from about 3,000 years.
The IRGC is like the STASI was in East Germany, informers in every family. But now IRGC have modern technology for data gathering and unlimited arms.
The only purpose of the IRGC is to protect and strengthen the Religious Revolution
Do you think their will be a spontaneous uprising from ordinary people?

An invasion, boots on the ground? Are there are enough soldiers in the world available for such a mission?
Can Israel continue while Iran exists?
When and where will Israel and/or USA detonate a nuclear bomb to end not just the war but Iran?

Oil is not all the same. Refineries are set up for specific crudes. The US sells some types of oil ( Texas Light Sweet for example), but has to import heavier oils.

Because different oils produce different products, also at different costs.

How is it a conspiracy?

Oil has been at the centre of American and Iran relations since 1953. It has shaped the reasons for America's influence in the region.