Iranian War Is Not The Same As Iraq

As a former head of NATO in Europe, with exp of operations in the Balkans, NI and Afghanistan has just said "It is not clear what strategy the USA has (if they have one) what their plan is for afterwards and that its likely not to work"

So as he knows a lot more about these things than you or i, its safe to assume all we are doing is making matters far worse for everyone, not least Western individuals held captive in Iran right now, will be many many years before any of them see the light of day.

I don't think Trump had any idea about the importance of the region in world oil supplies nor what he can now do about it all.

His suggestion that he will offer insurance and protection for ships hasn't been taken up... not that it would encourage anyone to risk sailing in or out of the region.

..and now we will see interest rate increases, a return to high inflation, higher borrowing, pensions worth less.... all for nothing.

So presumably then you are OK with the Iranian regime organising over 20 terrorist plots against the UK, kidnapping Royal Navy sailors, backing terrorists around the Middle East including those that have killed British citizens and attacking British shipping (Houthis).

Are you happy for this Iranian regime to stay in power and continue these activities or if not what would you propose to do to stop it?

Thing is it’s not up to any other country to bring about regime change in a country which isn’t theirs.

We justify it on the basis that we don’t think that the way the country is ruled is acceptable. But we base those opinions on our own standards.

And don’t get me wrong, I think the way that the people in some countries are treated is appalling. But change to those regimes can and should only ever start from within.

It’s not palatable to think it, because the truth is it’s not always possible if there’s a lot of support for the existing regime. But that still doesn’t give any other country the right to go in and make decisions on other people’s behalf.

We wouldn’t welcome any other country deciding that the way our country was ruled was wrong and so think they could step in and bring about “regime change”, this is no different, even if the conditions are.

Not a gut feel, just listening and reading various ME experts, who have said similar.
Certainly there appears to be far greater security presence in public areas than previously.

But i accept its not evidence either, the regime have had no problem organising a successor, its a huge place, the IRGC will not magically go away.

...and their drone capacity is still very strong, the US will soon run out of precision munitions too, then what? carpet bombing?

Your view that the bombing has consolidated the regime and not weakened its hold on the country is based on what evidence?

I have no objection to you challenging the evidence I posted, provided you've got something more substantial to challenge it with, other than your "gut feel".

I don’t think the average civilian can use arms, in a way that you or I couldn’t, but I’ve seen there is talk of the Kurds fighting. I haven’t read much on it but it’s a difficult one, using people on the ground brings another level to it.

...and now, after their leader of Iran and the Shia Muslims killed?

Might even be higher but as pp said, very difficult to know in a country like Iran.

The bombing seems to have consolidated the regime, not weakened its hold in the country.

No, obviously not. There are organised, motivated and in many ways very capable groups there but they are incredibly limited in what they can actually do. Unfortunately I don't see any actual way to achieve what I'd like to see happen. When I say provide them with arms etc. I do realise it's impossible to start massing all of that just over the border, ready for them to pop over and pick up what they need just like going to Tesco! The point I was trying to make is that anything done there without the co-operation and involvement of the people themselves is just not about and for the people. It's for the many other political reasons that we all know this is about. Nothing to do with actually freeing Iranians.

I would like to believe that's accurate but I don't see how it's possible at all to get an accurate, unbiased result on a question like that in such a highly controlled country full of very, very scared people.

Do you mean giving weapons to just civilians who should fight?

Recent surveys and analyses indicate that roughly 70% to over 80% of Iranians oppose the continuation of the Islamic Republic, with a 2024 report suggesting only about 20% support the regime. Data indicates 89% support a democratic system.

https://gamaan.org/2025/08/20/analytical-report-on-iranians-political-preferences-in-2024/

Well again, it's not as simple as that! I'd argue that there is the appetite - that's how so many got themselves killed - but how do you overthrow a million strong, highly armed and government supported IRGC without arms, resources, military support? That's why so many dissidents got murdered. It's not just that it's not a level playing field. It's David vs Goliath without the romance of literary fiction as the background.

One argument might have been that if the aim really were to help and free the opporessed Iranians then it should have been done by supporting those who could and would overthrow the current regime by providing funds, arms, technological support, military back up and whatever other resources they could use. Give them the tools to rise up and take back their country as Trump urged them to do - while unhelpfully conducting an indiscriminate bombing campaign. However there's not necessarily any advantage to the USA or Israel in doing that. No guaranteed access to oil etc. Of course that's not what the USA or Israel want because they don't give a shit about the Iranian people.

My personal feeling (although I and any of us arguably don't have any right to decide how a sovereign country runs its business, but I'm a mother and want my children to grow up in a safer, better world) is that yes, Iran was and is a problem for the world under its current and previous leadership. Unfortunately I also feel what's being done now isn't the way to deal with that. Do any of us - Americans, Europeans, Arabs and the rest of the world - really feel safer this week?

Yep, he and his backers will not like to see the falls in stock market values, when that happened with Tariffs, he quickly backed down.

I think he just hasn't thought this through, muddled objectives, didn't consider that Iran would fight back or that oil flows would cease.

I think he will seek a negotiation, then claim victory, btw he is already saying he has "won"

One of the grievances against the Shah by the Iranian Revolution, was hereditary succession.

So kind of hypocritical that the replacement for Ayatollah Khameni is his son.

Do you have any links to this 'speculation '?

Similarities but also big differences. Funding terrorists throughout the regime is pretty important.

Still social media loves parrotting soundbites and the current one is 'remember Iraq' often quoted by people who probably don't remember it. Social media loves a soundbite.

If they arm the Balochistanis, that will pull Pakistan in. Their claimed territories overlap.

I do think at some point the Iranians are going to have to overwhelm the regime, they don’t have any other option, but the regime is armed and ordinary Iranians are not. Between a rock and the devil. I really hope they get freedom but tbh I do tend to agree with posters who are feeling a little sceptical at the moment (I hope I and they are very wrong).

On the Kurds I think it’s kurds in western Iran who are being armed and Balochis, not Iraqi kurds who are also being bombed at the moment(though I wouldn’t be surprised if some hopped over the border to help out). They can’t overthrown the regime by themselves though.

Where did you hear that? It’s batshit, Israel won’t even admit it has nukes let alone ever overtly threatened anyone with them. Sorry but this sounds like a conspiracy theory. Bit like “greater Israel”.

I read a really interesting point on twitter about Iraq. The analyst made the point that the west often talks about Iraq as a failure. But if you look at Iraq now, it has a parliament, people vote, you don’t have an entire population living on the whims of a dictator. He argues despite everything Iraq is better off now than it was under Saddam so it’s not the failure people assume it is. He’s an arab so I think it’s fair to say he knows his beat.

I think for a lot of us in the west the failure is in the fact that we should never have been there and the human cost, both for western armies and the iraqis was immense. I think theres also the uncomfortable truth that dictators in the middle east basically suppressed islamists, this is true in Libya as well. One of the things that hyper charged islamisim (in the view of Mughal from “Tell Mama”) in the Uk was the granting of asylum to anto Gaddafi elements who were pretty much islamists. I don’t know what we were thinking there to be honest. However from Iraqs own perspective, it may well be true that whilst not perfect individual iraqis have more liberty than they did before.

I’m not 100% sure what I think of that tbh but it’s a reasonable point.

Iran is different for Israel and america, their motto is “death to america, death to israel”. They have said they would nuke Israel, I don’t think any other country has so blatantly threatened another country with nukes for absolutely no reason. It has funded proxies that have killed both Israelis and americans. It does present a threat. Not to mention the consequences for anyone who has to live with it’s proxies as Lebanon is unfortunately finding out right now.

Iran not Iraq. Was too late to edit

Apologies, Iran.

Why on earth would Israel nuke Iraq?

I suspect he’s board already. We know how Trump operates. He goes in, claims victory, and then leaves. Look at Venezuela, he did precisely nothing there after he’d captured their leader other than negotiate for their oil.

There has been some speculation however that Israel are looking to nuke Iraq, and interesting how there doesn’t seem to be the panic over Israel or the US’s nuclear capabilities as opposed to the ones Iran doesn’t yet have.