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Conflict in the Middle East

How long until the Iranian regime collapses?

369 replies

mids2019 · 16/06/2025 20:21

I think days......

The dismantling of its defence systems, the panic in Terhan coupled with decapitation of the senior ministry leadership alongside important government institutions makes control increasingly hard for the regime.

I think the lack of good options for Iran has made them separately wave a white flag attempting to get back to the negotiating material but maybe it's just too late?

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sualipa · 18/06/2025 14:00

MrsSkylerWhite · 18/06/2025 13:45

An expert on the regime was on Newsnight yesterday. His opinion, once the Ayatollah is gone, that will be the end.

You can hear the football chants "There's Only One Ayatollah....." and probably a million regime head chopping nutjobs who will be looking for work. Bit like the Baath Party in Iraq some of who morphed into ISIS/Al Queda etc - this ain't just regime belief but messianical religion from people who don't fear death.

EasternStandard · 18/06/2025 13:59

Whatsinanamehey · 18/06/2025 13:53

That is the bigger issue, yes. Will toppling the Ayatullah make it less of a threat? Perhaps it will. Or perhaps the next leader will accelerate the push for nuclear weapons so he doesn't meet with the same fate as his predecessor.

I think they might use the US weapon that can to take out what’s there underground.

In the public domain but not sure if it’ll go ahead.

Whatsinanamehey · 18/06/2025 13:53

EasternStandard · 18/06/2025 13:48

Tbf there’s bigger issue than who is the regime head, it’s more about the nuclear power.

It looks like all G7 and EC are agreed that is a credible and serious threat.

That is the bigger issue, yes. Will toppling the Ayatullah make it less of a threat? Perhaps it will. Or perhaps the next leader will accelerate the push for nuclear weapons so he doesn't meet with the same fate as his predecessor.

Whatsinanamehey · 18/06/2025 13:50

Stay out of it. Let the Iranians choose for themselves who they want as their leaders. Right now many Iranians (who are still critical of their government) have rallied behind their leaders because they are under attack by an outsider. This is the natural and likely consequence of a foreign threat. Many were furious when Trump tweeted they should leave Tehran.

The common misconception in warfare is to assume civilians will think my enemy's enemy is my friend. Whilst some may despise the mullahs, that doesn't mean they will despise western influence that causes havoc in their lives any less. Especially if it will lead to a greater war that will see more people losing loved ones, their homes and much more.

EasternStandard · 18/06/2025 13:48

Whatsinanamehey · 18/06/2025 13:40

Who on here is empathising with the Ayatullah? Im certainly not. But many of us know that western interference and forcible regime change hasn't always worked out well for everyone involved. That's not an unreasonable stance to have and neither does it imply empathy towards leaders of hostile countries.

Tbf there’s bigger issue than who is the regime head, it’s more about the nuclear power.

It looks like all G7 and EC are agreed that is a credible and serious threat.

Katiesaidthat · 18/06/2025 13:47

BelleHathor · 17/06/2025 00:07

He's just told everyone to evacuate Tehran. There has also been a large movement of American military assets to the region.

Sounds like a threat, I think he is stupid enough to actually use a Nuclear weapon to stop Iran getting nukes and America is the only country to ever use nukes.

If it's boots on the ground then like Tucker Carlson said earlier today he's just ended the American Empire.

Look at the glee on this Republican congress member. Fools all of them.

https://x.com/RepFine/status/1934742721350259094

Someone should tell him can not and cannot don´t mean the same...

MrsSkylerWhite · 18/06/2025 13:45

An expert on the regime was on Newsnight yesterday. His opinion, once the Ayatollah is gone, that will be the end.

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 13:42

Whatsinanamehey · 18/06/2025 13:40

Who on here is empathising with the Ayatullah? Im certainly not. But many of us know that western interference and forcible regime change hasn't always worked out well for everyone involved. That's not an unreasonable stance to have and neither does it imply empathy towards leaders of hostile countries.

So what you suggest as an alternative?

Whatsinanamehey · 18/06/2025 13:40

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 13:30

I cannot comprehend the empathy that a terrorist regime is getting. The bloody Iranians sponsor Hamas so why the fuck are we hearing western women pitying them and talking about them being betrayed by western governments! please excuse my language.

Edited

Who on here is empathising with the Ayatullah? Im certainly not. But many of us know that western interference and forcible regime change hasn't always worked out well for everyone involved. That's not an unreasonable stance to have and neither does it imply empathy towards leaders of hostile countries.

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 13:40

Twiglets1 · 18/06/2025 13:23

Thank you Hamas?

Or they don’t get to share any of the blame at all despite planning & carrying out a massacre on Israeli civilians.

Why do you see hamas everywhere? Is hamas now directing Trump? Did Hamas force Trump to end the agreement in 2018?

sualipa · 18/06/2025 13:39

Whatsinanamehey · 18/06/2025 13:11

Try telling Ukraine that.

After the Great Orange One abruptly left on "urgent business," the G6 let Zelenskyy take his seat, but also a reminder that unlike Israel, Ukraine doesn't "hold the cards". Netanyahu, for his part, denied Zelenskyy a visit to Israel after October 7, even as he rolled out the red carpet for nearly every other world leader.

Putin and Netanyahu were once pretty damn close more so than other leaders but their relationship has cooled particlualy so since there are many emigre Russian Jews living in Isarel. Still, Putin reportedly welcomes the distraction Israel’s war in Gaza provides. It shifts global focus, highlights Western double standards, and allows him to draw parallels: both he and Netanyahu are now wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes but both don't deserve to be in their minds !!

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 13:38

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 13:30

I cannot comprehend the empathy that a terrorist regime is getting. The bloody Iranians sponsor Hamas so why the fuck are we hearing western women pitying them and talking about them being betrayed by western governments! please excuse my language.

Edited

A terrorist regime is not getting much sympathy here.

Iran’s one was dying. Attempts to change it by force would cost many lives and a risk of part of Iran becoming Taliban and roaming grounds for militarised extremists.
If you are really afraid of extremists - then don’t create conditions for them, which this war does.

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 13:30

Twiglets1 · 18/06/2025 13:23

Thank you Hamas?

Or they don’t get to share any of the blame at all despite planning & carrying out a massacre on Israeli civilians.

I cannot comprehend the empathy that a terrorist regime is getting. The bloody Iranians sponsor Hamas so why the fuck are we hearing western women pitying them and talking about them being betrayed by western governments! please excuse my language.

Twiglets1 · 18/06/2025 13:23

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 12:28

Who on earth would now trust anything the us says?
they’ve just shown that you can be sitting at the table negotiating with them and, while you’re looking for a compromise, they are playing for time to kill you.
We are in very dark times now. Trust is gone. International laws are gone. The strongest and most violent wins. Thank you US and Israel for getting us here…

Thank you Hamas?

Or they don’t get to share any of the blame at all despite planning & carrying out a massacre on Israeli civilians.

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 13:17

Whatsinanamehey · 18/06/2025 13:11

Try telling Ukraine that.

Talking of Ukraine, it's interesting how Russia is also warning the US not to join forces with Israel.

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 13:16

Whatsinanamehey · 18/06/2025 13:12

Maybe Trump wants to follow in the footsteps of Bush? Wasn't Netanyahu involved in convincing Bush that Iraq had the (non-existent) WMD?

Well I hope every Labour Liberal remembers Blair and Campbell's huge parts in that.

Whatsinanamehey · 18/06/2025 13:12

Maybe Trump wants to follow in the footsteps of Bush? Wasn't Netanyahu involved in convincing Bush that Iraq had the (non-existent) WMD?

Whatsinanamehey · 18/06/2025 13:11

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 12:48

The obsession and hatred for Trump reminds me why Reform have gained such traction. Liberals are too busy worrying about the the wrong enemy.

Try telling Ukraine that.

ComeAsYouAreAsAFriend · 18/06/2025 13:06

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 12:48

The obsession and hatred for Trump reminds me why Reform have gained such traction. Liberals are too busy worrying about the the wrong enemy.

Because Trump has brought so much stability to the world .....
Honestly you can be Trump's number 1 fan all you like but criticising people for not supporting him is a ridiculous.
Not supporting trump does not mean you support regimes like Iran

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 12:48

sualipa · 18/06/2025 12:46

Under Trump that's not a given.

The obsession and hatred for Trump reminds me why Reform have gained such traction. Liberals are too busy worrying about the the wrong enemy.

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 12:47

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 12:44

Yes because heaven forbid if WW3 broke out, we wouldn't need America's help.

Amer is too big. WW3 cannot start now without America’s help.

sualipa · 18/06/2025 12:46

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 12:44

Yes because heaven forbid if WW3 broke out, we wouldn't need America's help.

Under Trump that's not a given.

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 12:44

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 12:37

When you ally goes nuts, yes, you should stop trusting them.
And if you can and you care for them, you should stop them.

Yes because heaven forbid if WW3 broke out, we wouldn't need America's help.

sualipa · 18/06/2025 12:39

Things I never knew until now !

Saudi Arabia, until recently, banned all non-Islamic religious practices in public, including Judaism.
There are no synagogues in the country.
Entry was historically difficult for Jewish individuals or those with Israeli passports.

According to estimates, between 17,000 and 25,000 Iranian Jews are living mostly in larger cities such as Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Hamedan and Tabriz.
Next to Israel, Iran has the largest number of people of the Jewish faith in the Middle East. Iran’s parliament, the Majlis, has one reserved seat for the Jewish community.
In Isfahan, one of the city’s most prominent synagogues is located next to a mosque called Al Aqsa, and in Tehran, there are at least 50 synagogues spread across the city.
The Jewish community also runs a hospital in Tehran that caters to all patients regardless of their religious affiliation.
Jewish ties to the country date back as far as 2,700 years ago, Younes Hamami Lalehzar, a senior rabbi at Abrishami Synagogue in Tehran, once told me in an interview.
It is believed that Jewish heroine Esther and her uncle, Mordechai, are buried in the western city of Hamedan. According to Jewish biblical text, Esther was married to the Persian king, Xerxes.
In more recent history, the country gave safe haven to Jews who fled the Spanish Inquisition. During German Nazi leader Adolf Hitler’s rampage of Europe, Polish Jews sought refuge in Iran.
But there have also been periods of unrest, such as the forced conversion of Jews to Islam during the Safavid and Qajar era, and the migration of thousands of Iranian Jews to the US and Israel following the 1979 Islamic revolution.

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izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 12:37

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 12:34

Yes, you carry on mistrusting the UK's biggest ally.

When you ally goes nuts, yes, you should stop trusting them.
And if you can and you care for them, you should stop them.

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