Please or to access all these features

Conflict in the Middle East

How long until the Iranian regime collapses?

369 replies

mids2019 · 16/06/2025 20:21

I think days......

The dismantling of its defence systems, the panic in Terhan coupled with decapitation of the senior ministry leadership alongside important government institutions makes control increasingly hard for the regime.

I think the lack of good options for Iran has made them separately wave a white flag attempting to get back to the negotiating material but maybe it's just too late?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
19
Dangermoo · 19/06/2025 11:31

EasternStandard · 19/06/2025 11:28

I think those considering this do see the threat.

I wouldn’t rely on this rationality.

I also think G7 are way more equipped to assess this threat than any well intended MNer!

Whatsinanamehey · 19/06/2025 11:31

But even if you did think that Iran would, they were years away from being able to. Why strike now whilst negotiations with Iran and the US were still ongoing? Eternal war suits Netanyahu's agenda just fine.

EasternStandard · 19/06/2025 11:29

Whatsinanamehey · 19/06/2025 11:28

@EasternStandard I agree with this.

You see no threat from Iran having nuclear weaponry

I find this view concerning. I take it those holding it are in the U.K. too.

Whatsinanamehey · 19/06/2025 11:28

datcherygrateful · 19/06/2025 11:15

I actually don't. It serves them no purpose. Lets be rational here, if Iran did build nuclear bombs, which it hasn't, and if it did do what mainstream media say they will do, which is bomb the US and Israel (which will also wipe out the palestinians, Jordanians, egyptians, lebanese and syrians) Do you not think that that will not spell suicide for Iran and the Iranians? At most they can build 9, Israel has hundreds and the US has thousands.

There is no benefit whatsoever for them to use them.

Potential is not proof.

This is just about power and deflection. The GZ are just parroting the same points and have zero evidence.

@EasternStandard I agree with this.

EasternStandard · 19/06/2025 11:28

datcherygrateful · 19/06/2025 11:15

I actually don't. It serves them no purpose. Lets be rational here, if Iran did build nuclear bombs, which it hasn't, and if it did do what mainstream media say they will do, which is bomb the US and Israel (which will also wipe out the palestinians, Jordanians, egyptians, lebanese and syrians) Do you not think that that will not spell suicide for Iran and the Iranians? At most they can build 9, Israel has hundreds and the US has thousands.

There is no benefit whatsoever for them to use them.

Potential is not proof.

This is just about power and deflection. The GZ are just parroting the same points and have zero evidence.

I think those considering this do see the threat.

I wouldn’t rely on this rationality.

Dangermoo · 19/06/2025 11:23

datcherygrateful · 19/06/2025 11:15

I actually don't. It serves them no purpose. Lets be rational here, if Iran did build nuclear bombs, which it hasn't, and if it did do what mainstream media say they will do, which is bomb the US and Israel (which will also wipe out the palestinians, Jordanians, egyptians, lebanese and syrians) Do you not think that that will not spell suicide for Iran and the Iranians? At most they can build 9, Israel has hundreds and the US has thousands.

There is no benefit whatsoever for them to use them.

Potential is not proof.

This is just about power and deflection. The GZ are just parroting the same points and have zero evidence.

Being rational is all very well, but only when you're dealing with like minded rational people.

datcherygrateful · 19/06/2025 11:20

The real issue here is power, not peace. Israel is the only nuclear-armed state in the region, never signed the NPT, refuses IAEA inspections, and still gets unconditional support. Iran has signed the NPT and has no proven weaponised programme and even if they did which they dont, it would take them many years, so this strike in tehran had nothing to do with nuclear capability- it was Bibi clutching at straws and deflecting. The double standard is glaring.

datcherygrateful · 19/06/2025 11:15

EasternStandard · 19/06/2025 10:30

@Whatsinanameheydo you think that Iran having nuclear capability is problematic and agree with G7 etc that it’s a threat?

I actually don't. It serves them no purpose. Lets be rational here, if Iran did build nuclear bombs, which it hasn't, and if it did do what mainstream media say they will do, which is bomb the US and Israel (which will also wipe out the palestinians, Jordanians, egyptians, lebanese and syrians) Do you not think that that will not spell suicide for Iran and the Iranians? At most they can build 9, Israel has hundreds and the US has thousands.

There is no benefit whatsoever for them to use them.

Potential is not proof.

This is just about power and deflection. The GZ are just parroting the same points and have zero evidence.

TreadSoftlyOnMyDreams · 19/06/2025 10:57

That regime will still be there when the ice caps have melted and we're all residing in the Alps. Don't be naive to think a few bombs will kill it off that quickly. If anything it's less likely to do so.

EasternStandard · 19/06/2025 10:30

Whatsinanamehey · 19/06/2025 09:24

Well said.
Saudi Arabia is afforded the leeway because of the billions they invest in the US.

@Whatsinanameheydo you think that Iran having nuclear capability is problematic and agree with G7 etc that it’s a threat?

sualipa · 19/06/2025 09:46

Whatsinanamehey · 19/06/2025 09:24

Well said.
Saudi Arabia is afforded the leeway because of the billions they invest in the US.

The Arab Spring was ultimately suppressed, likely to the satisfaction of the United States, which has historically preferred dealing with authoritarian regimes that align with its strategic interests over navigating the complexities of unpredictable democracies in regions it scarcely understands.

Whatsinanamehey · 19/06/2025 09:24

datcherygrateful · 19/06/2025 09:02

Yes, Iranian women (and men) have risen up. They’ve led protests, faced bullets, torture, and prison. But this isn’t just about stopping a nuclear programme. Meaningful change can’t be flown becasue every time foreign aggressors ‘liberate’ a country they leave it worse and weaker.

That’s why the nuclear angle rings hollow. Remember what Wesley Clark let slip?

There was a Pentagon memo to ‘take out’ seven governments, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan… and Iran. Most of that list is already rubble.

If this were purely about stopping bombs, explain why Israel an undeclared nuclear state with an estimated 80-200 warheads, never signed the NPT still gets $3.8 billion a year in US military aid despite the Symington Amendment barring such support.

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia, holds no elections, impossible to protest, ZERO activism, have been brutal in Yemen with a rising death toll gets red carpets and weapon contracts, not sanctions. In my opinion Saudi Arabia is just as oppressive if not more than the IR.

So yes, the Iranian regime is brutal, but outside pressure that ignores its own double standards only tightens Tehran’s grip and fuels nationalist backlash.

Real reform has to come from inside it cannot be hijacked.

Well said.
Saudi Arabia is afforded the leeway because of the billions they invest in the US.

EasternStandard · 19/06/2025 09:24

datcherygrateful · 19/06/2025 09:02

Yes, Iranian women (and men) have risen up. They’ve led protests, faced bullets, torture, and prison. But this isn’t just about stopping a nuclear programme. Meaningful change can’t be flown becasue every time foreign aggressors ‘liberate’ a country they leave it worse and weaker.

That’s why the nuclear angle rings hollow. Remember what Wesley Clark let slip?

There was a Pentagon memo to ‘take out’ seven governments, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan… and Iran. Most of that list is already rubble.

If this were purely about stopping bombs, explain why Israel an undeclared nuclear state with an estimated 80-200 warheads, never signed the NPT still gets $3.8 billion a year in US military aid despite the Symington Amendment barring such support.

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia, holds no elections, impossible to protest, ZERO activism, have been brutal in Yemen with a rising death toll gets red carpets and weapon contracts, not sanctions. In my opinion Saudi Arabia is just as oppressive if not more than the IR.

So yes, the Iranian regime is brutal, but outside pressure that ignores its own double standards only tightens Tehran’s grip and fuels nationalist backlash.

Real reform has to come from inside it cannot be hijacked.

Because the G7 and US recognise the threat from Iran having nuclear capability.

Dangermoo · 19/06/2025 09:19

datcherygrateful · 19/06/2025 09:14

I have hope. Still it is no business of the West, to interfere.

Europeans are spectators not actors. is the reality as simple as that - anyone?

datcherygrateful · 19/06/2025 09:14

I have hope. Still it is no business of the West, to interfere.

Dangermoo · 19/06/2025 09:13

datcherygrateful · 19/06/2025 09:02

Yes, Iranian women (and men) have risen up. They’ve led protests, faced bullets, torture, and prison. But this isn’t just about stopping a nuclear programme. Meaningful change can’t be flown becasue every time foreign aggressors ‘liberate’ a country they leave it worse and weaker.

That’s why the nuclear angle rings hollow. Remember what Wesley Clark let slip?

There was a Pentagon memo to ‘take out’ seven governments, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan… and Iran. Most of that list is already rubble.

If this were purely about stopping bombs, explain why Israel an undeclared nuclear state with an estimated 80-200 warheads, never signed the NPT still gets $3.8 billion a year in US military aid despite the Symington Amendment barring such support.

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia, holds no elections, impossible to protest, ZERO activism, have been brutal in Yemen with a rising death toll gets red carpets and weapon contracts, not sanctions. In my opinion Saudi Arabia is just as oppressive if not more than the IR.

So yes, the Iranian regime is brutal, but outside pressure that ignores its own double standards only tightens Tehran’s grip and fuels nationalist backlash.

Real reform has to come from inside it cannot be hijacked.

I don't think reform from the inside will ever happen during our lifetime.

datcherygrateful · 19/06/2025 09:02

EasternStandard · 19/06/2025 08:37

How likely is that given the response from the regime to any protestors?

People have tried, women in particular.

ETA this is less about regime change and more about ending nuclear weapon capability for the G7 and US.

Edited

Yes, Iranian women (and men) have risen up. They’ve led protests, faced bullets, torture, and prison. But this isn’t just about stopping a nuclear programme. Meaningful change can’t be flown becasue every time foreign aggressors ‘liberate’ a country they leave it worse and weaker.

That’s why the nuclear angle rings hollow. Remember what Wesley Clark let slip?

There was a Pentagon memo to ‘take out’ seven governments, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan… and Iran. Most of that list is already rubble.

If this were purely about stopping bombs, explain why Israel an undeclared nuclear state with an estimated 80-200 warheads, never signed the NPT still gets $3.8 billion a year in US military aid despite the Symington Amendment barring such support.

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia, holds no elections, impossible to protest, ZERO activism, have been brutal in Yemen with a rising death toll gets red carpets and weapon contracts, not sanctions. In my opinion Saudi Arabia is just as oppressive if not more than the IR.

So yes, the Iranian regime is brutal, but outside pressure that ignores its own double standards only tightens Tehran’s grip and fuels nationalist backlash.

Real reform has to come from inside it cannot be hijacked.

sualipa · 19/06/2025 08:51

Dangermoo · 19/06/2025 08:22

Indeed.

That's Agent Krasnov Trump's job and a great job he is doing with his bunch of evil clowns.

Dangermoo · 19/06/2025 08:46

Twiglets1 · 19/06/2025 08:40

Definitely agree with let peace prevail.

There is hope that negotiations can move forwards if all 4 representatives from Iran, UK, France & Germany genuinely want to find a compromise they can all agree on.

Personally, I would like to see a regime change. But that is less important (also less achievable) than Iran agreeing to surrender any nuclear ambitions it has.

As far as I'm concerned that should be the main goal.

Hear hear.

Twiglets1 · 19/06/2025 08:40

sualipa · 19/06/2025 08:02

I truly hope so. And I hope that Trump’s maximalist threats are just that a pressure tactic to bring a chastened regime to the point where it surrenders its nuclear ambitions, fully and permanently.

After that, let the Iranian people determine their own future. They will be emboldened not broken if we refrain from destroying their country.

But above all, let peace prevail.

Definitely agree with let peace prevail.

There is hope that negotiations can move forwards if all 4 representatives from Iran, UK, France & Germany genuinely want to find a compromise they can all agree on.

Personally, I would like to see a regime change. But that is less important (also less achievable) than Iran agreeing to surrender any nuclear ambitions it has.

As far as I'm concerned that should be the main goal.

EasternStandard · 19/06/2025 08:37

datcherygrateful · 19/06/2025 08:16

I think it is very naive for anyone to think that Netanyahu will save the iranians and topple the regime. The regime must go, but can only go from within. We never seem to learn. Look at what happened to Mossadegh- who got rid of him? And who came after?

The west installed a puppet who stole money away from his citizens and yet many romantacise him and his son. It's pure delusion.

End the regime, but do not let the foreign aggressors do it.

How likely is that given the response from the regime to any protestors?

People have tried, women in particular.

ETA this is less about regime change and more about ending nuclear weapon capability for the G7 and US.

Whatsinanamehey · 19/06/2025 08:27

From sky news

If the attorney general deems Israel's actions in Iran to be unlawful then the UK is restricted in its ability to help to defend Israel or support the United States in any planned attacks on Iran.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, the source said that the attorney general's concerns limit UK involvement in the conflict "unless our personnel are targeted".

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-attorney-general-has-questions-on-legality-of-israels-actions-in-iran-13385688

sualipa · 19/06/2025 08:24

datcherygrateful · 19/06/2025 08:16

I think it is very naive for anyone to think that Netanyahu will save the iranians and topple the regime. The regime must go, but can only go from within. We never seem to learn. Look at what happened to Mossadegh- who got rid of him? And who came after?

The west installed a puppet who stole money away from his citizens and yet many romantacise him and his son. It's pure delusion.

End the regime, but do not let the foreign aggressors do it.

And there will be no boots on the ground for sure -so it wil be the devil takes the hindmost in country. What would happen to the nuclear material for instance- that was a big fear when the USSR collapsed - but that was peacefully and from within and why we had the Budapest Memorandum to try and prevent nucelar material getting into the hands of terroists and non-state actors.

Dangermoo · 19/06/2025 08:22

Whatsinanamehey · 19/06/2025 08:16

Does Iran even have the capabilities to inflict irreversible damage on the US? I doubt it.

Indeed.

datcherygrateful · 19/06/2025 08:21

mids2019 · 17/06/2025 18:04

Indeed Hamas may realise it has literally no allies and source of funding so their leadership may attempt to just face away........

Iran is a beautiful country and its people deserve better than an Islamist terror group leading them.

True Hamas will lose its funding but they will never disappear.

We seem so short sighted.

The only way to dismantle Hamas is to dismantle the conditions that breed their ideology- end the occupation in west bank, relocate the illegal settlers, lift the blockade on gaza and act like the democracy, equality and justice FOR ALL. If palestinians and israelis can live amongst eachother in peace,and prosperity where no one is better than the other, no chance a militant or terrorist group can recruit; because what would they be pitching?