How long until the Iranian regime collapses?

Very interesting stuff.

I've been watching Simon Reeves travels across Scandinavia, Mediterranean and Tropic of Capricorn on i-player. Mediterranean was filmed in 2018. Capricorn in 2008. Bit chilling when his driver pointed out the roundabout where daesh crucified traitors. Really interesting series. He travels in Lebanon, Israel, Gaza, Libya, Algeria, Egypt, Saudi....

Apparently he wrote a book in 1998 , (the new jackals) , featuring among others Osama bin Laden.

Reeve's thesis is that a group of several thousand men who fought against the soviets during the Afghan War of the 1980s would later dominate international terrorism. He warned that many of these men, known as the "Afghan Arabs", had become the core of Al-Qaeda and constituted a new breed of terrorist, militants with no restrictions on mass killing. Reeve concluded that, by 1998, the world was entering a new age of apocalyptic terrorism, and predicted that Al-Qaeda would launch massive attacks on Western targets.

Yup, Eisenhower basically forcing France, Israel and the UK to stop their little adventure was probably the last time an American administration has intervened in the region to ordinary Americans actual benefit.

Yes and didn't follow is into the breach over end of Empire Suez.

You just know it will be good then 👍

Yes they dramatize some of the story from record that they have obtained with RF playing the main protaganist.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_53

Oh God he was pure evil but he played that part so well. Now Liam as Oscar...breathtaking but I found that about the film, especially John Williams' soundtrack. Agree with you on how lush Ralph was in the English patient.

Anyway, I digress

It's an excellent film that should be standard viewing for many commentators on the current situation.

The funny thing is that Britain attempted to get the US involved in the coup to help the UK to sustain its footprint in West Asia. Afterwards America decided that actually involvement in the region would be to their own benefit and began the process of becoming the dominant power in the region.

I might give that a go. I notice Ralph Fiennes is in it?

Fab film, some eye candy as well - to boot!

Yes a great movie in every respect. Coup53 went firmly under the radar - essentially Britain stole wholesale Iran's oil wealth and assasinated the man who tried to regain sovereignity for his own country.

Hated Ralph Fiennes with a passion in Schindler's List @sualipa

Then fell in love with him in The English Patient.

A very talented actor.

Never seen Munich ... maybe I will over the next few days.

Got mine sorted as well. Munich. Seen it 3 times but it's never enough.

Got my weekend viewing sorted !! Ralph Fiennes as well.

I agree and articles and talk on regime change seem to be missing what the focus is for the G7.

It's not why it's happening. Although it might happen anyway.

Another great article from my confirmation bias.. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/toppling-irans-supreme-leader-could-be-a-mistake/

So, as Iran faces its greatest external threat since the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88, what are the prospects for regime change in Tehran and who might come next after Khamenei? Nicholas Hopton, director-general of the Middle East Association, and former British ambassador to Iran, Libya, Yemen and Qatar, is sceptical. ‘It seems to me that in appealing to the Iranian people, Prime Minister Netanyahu is possibly being either disingenuous or overoptimistic in hoping that will lead to regime change, or at least a regime more palatable to Israel and the West. The one thing likely to unite sentiment within Iran is opposition to external interference, as the country’s long, complicated history shows us.’

Reza Pahlavi, son of the last and ultimately despised shah, is also on manoeuvres, arguing that the end of the revolutionary regime is nigh. His candidacy – reports say he is ‘not necessarily’ looking for the restoration of the monarchy – has a tone-deaf shamelessness that is briefly entertaining, but the less said about him the better. He reminds me of the late Sharif Ali bin al-Hussein, the charming, self-styled Crown Prince of Iraq who popped up in Baghdad in 2004 and did the rounds, claiming to be the legitimate heir to a nonexistent throne.

All of which is to suggest that when leaders launch ambitious military interventions and dangle the tantalising, headline-grabbing prize of regime change before us, a smidgen of caution is advisable. As for those hoping for a sudden outbreak of liberal democracy in Iran – or post-Assad Syria for that matter – Charles Gammell, a former Foreign Office official and Iran expert, has a stark warning. Given that the ayatollahs have already driven the opposition abroad, underground or into their graves, he doubts there are many suitable candidates left. ‘The patterns of repression, corruption and vice that we saw under the Pahlavi regime have simply been repeated – on steroids – by the Islamic Republic, and there is every chance that the psychological wounds inflicted by Khamenei and his ilk would produce an anti-western, anti-liberal and repressive post-Islamic Republic Iran. Beware those who promise the sunlit uplands of liberal democracy.’

Imagine if Iran's regime drags it's people into a war with the US.

They are already unpopular - this would sign their death warrant one way or the other & possibly even by their own people.

I know Netanyahu is now saying that Khamenei has to go (since the bombing of the hospital).

But regime change wasn't the reason given for starting this war. The reason given was that Israel believed that in the last few months Iran was accelerating towards building a nuclear weapon.

Compromises will have to be reached all round. Or at least I hope compromises can be agreed, even if both Israel & Iran feel annoyed about the concessions they have to make.

I think it is the goal

But the regime might be tied to wanting to nuclear capability

I've been dying to use this term for ages and it now feels very befitting ...

oh my days 😂

Yes, I agree knowingly bombing a state into regime change is fraught with danger, not just for that state but for regional and global stability. What the world needs now (apart from love, sweet love) is rational, thoughtful, and considered responses not increasingly escalatory rhetoric and actions. And then there's Trump...

The more I read about it @sualipa and think about it - the more convinced I feel that the West shouldn't try to bring about a regime change in Iran.

We should focus on one goal and that is to stop Iran being able to develop nuclear bombs.

Tobias Ellwood, a Conservative MP and former army officer, has just spoken passionately on LBC, forcefully arguing that it's madness to believe relentless bombing of Iran would lead to regime change beneficial to the West.

@datcherygrateful you say we can’t casually say “they might do something irrational, therefore we should preemptively treat them as a nuclear threat.”

But I believe that is what other world leaders are effectively saying to Iran.

It's almost certain that when this is over, Iran will have been forced to agree not to pursue having nuclear weapons - with many checks in place to ensure they comply.

However it is dressed up, the G7 countries and many others including Israel do not trust Iran to develop nuclear weapons.