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Conflict in the Middle East

How long until the Iranian regime collapses?

369 replies

mids2019 · 16/06/2025 20:21

I think days......

The dismantling of its defence systems, the panic in Terhan coupled with decapitation of the senior ministry leadership alongside important government institutions makes control increasingly hard for the regime.

I think the lack of good options for Iran has made them separately wave a white flag attempting to get back to the negotiating material but maybe it's just too late?

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Whatsinanamehey · 21/06/2025 10:08

Haha yes, sualipa's posts definitely make me miss the laugh button.

BelleHathor · 21/06/2025 10:06

ComeAsYouAreAsAFriend · 21/06/2025 09:49

Agree with @Whatsinanamehey if people don't want to be tagged they need to stop posting on a forum that allows it. No need for those rude posts

Agreeing too, Sualipa your posts are insightful, intelligent and informative (and your quips are funny too!).

ComeAsYouAreAsAFriend · 21/06/2025 09:49

sualipa · 21/06/2025 07:56

Don't worry I've decided to give MN a rest for the forseeable.

Agree with @Whatsinanamehey if people don't want to be tagged they need to stop posting on a forum that allows it. No need for those rude posts

Whatsinanamehey · 21/06/2025 09:43

sualipa · 21/06/2025 07:56

Don't worry I've decided to give MN a rest for the forseeable.

Don't let them hound you out, i appreciate your posts 🥰

sualipa · 21/06/2025 07:56

SharonEllis · 21/06/2025 07:51

Oh I see, so you were basically debating with yourself. Okkaay. Don't reply to me or tag me please.

Don't worry I've decided to give MN a rest for the forseeable.

SharonEllis · 21/06/2025 07:51

sualipa · 20/06/2025 21:36

Err no I didn't I wrote my reply and then as an aside thought I will "fact check" MY opinion which I had just written - Chat then "fact checked" that - not whatever your opinion was. My point, such as it was was Saddam wasn't the progenitor of the intifada but sought to profit from it's popularity of of a section of the miltant Arab street by showering some of his oil cash with the familes of suicide bombers. Not good by a long shot any way you look at it - I think we can agree on that.

Moving on .....

Oh I see, so you were basically debating with yourself. Okkaay. Don't reply to me or tag me please.

SharonEllis · 20/06/2025 21:36

sualipa · 20/06/2025 21:28

We agree - loathsome creature with His dodgy dossier and hounding of Dr Kelly maybe his depression is some deep buried conscience haunting him in the early hours of the morning. Owen, bless one of the good guys who wears his heart on his sleeve -YMMV !

That is a nasty take on mental health . He suffered with depression before.

sualipa · 20/06/2025 21:36

SharonEllis · 20/06/2025 08:39

Is that how she came to completely make up a quote for me? 🤣

'Your interpretation — that Saddam “came in afterward with cash to grandstand” — is largely supported by the historical record'

When I said no such thing. Definitely need a word with that wizard.

Err no I didn't I wrote my reply and then as an aside thought I will "fact check" MY opinion which I had just written - Chat then "fact checked" that - not whatever your opinion was. My point, such as it was was Saddam wasn't the progenitor of the intifada but sought to profit from it's popularity of of a section of the miltant Arab street by showering some of his oil cash with the familes of suicide bombers. Not good by a long shot any way you look at it - I think we can agree on that.

Moving on .....

sualipa · 20/06/2025 21:28

Dangermoo · 20/06/2025 20:13

Absolutely detest the bloke. He's just in front of Owen Jones on the odious front.

We agree - loathsome creature with His dodgy dossier and hounding of Dr Kelly maybe his depression is some deep buried conscience haunting him in the early hours of the morning. Owen, bless one of the good guys who wears his heart on his sleeve -YMMV !

Dangermoo · 20/06/2025 20:13

tramtracks · 20/06/2025 20:10

…interesting what short memories people have when they chat about hie amazing the Campbell podcast is… - overheard in a Gail’s in Islington.

Absolutely detest the bloke. He's just in front of Owen Jones on the odious front.

tramtracks · 20/06/2025 20:10

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 13:16

Well I hope every Labour Liberal remembers Blair and Campbell's huge parts in that.

…interesting what short memories people have when they chat about hie amazing the Campbell podcast is… - overheard in a Gail’s in Islington.

HellsBalls · 20/06/2025 11:22

thethingthatshouldnotbee · 20/06/2025 08:10

I'm not sure putting something into ChatGPT counts as fact checking.

It is when it gives you the answer you want.

SharonEllis · 20/06/2025 10:11

sualipa · 20/06/2025 09:07

No that was my qoute that I "made up" then got ChatGPT fact checked - quite a rabbit hole. ! Anyway I'm off doing my good deed for the day going to see my best friend's 90 year old mother and take her out for the day. So I won't be posting for a while.

Right, well please dont put words into people's mouths. Its completely out of order and a waste of everybody's time.

thethingthatshouldnotbee · 20/06/2025 09:47

sualipa · 20/06/2025 09:07

No that was my qoute that I "made up" then got ChatGPT fact checked - quite a rabbit hole. ! Anyway I'm off doing my good deed for the day going to see my best friend's 90 year old mother and take her out for the day. So I won't be posting for a while.

Maybe you should consider doing your own research instead of getting super predictive text to do it for you and taking everything it says at face value.

sualipa · 20/06/2025 09:07

SharonEllis · 20/06/2025 08:39

Is that how she came to completely make up a quote for me? 🤣

'Your interpretation — that Saddam “came in afterward with cash to grandstand” — is largely supported by the historical record'

When I said no such thing. Definitely need a word with that wizard.

No that was my qoute that I "made up" then got ChatGPT fact checked - quite a rabbit hole. ! Anyway I'm off doing my good deed for the day going to see my best friend's 90 year old mother and take her out for the day. So I won't be posting for a while.

SharonEllis · 20/06/2025 08:39

thethingthatshouldnotbee · 20/06/2025 08:10

I'm not sure putting something into ChatGPT counts as fact checking.

Is that how she came to completely make up a quote for me? 🤣

'Your interpretation — that Saddam “came in afterward with cash to grandstand” — is largely supported by the historical record'

When I said no such thing. Definitely need a word with that wizard.

sualipa · 20/06/2025 08:31

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ayatollah-khamenei-may-fall-but-theres-no-telling-what-could-come-next/

An article seemingly a rehash of the Financial Times piece I posted earlier suggests that the IRGC would be the main beneficiary if the leadership were decapitated. The hesitation shown by most Western leaders reflects the massive impact that chaos in Iran could have across the region. And they’re absolutely right to be concerned.

“The biggest mistake today is to seek regime change in Iran through military means because that would lead to chaos,” French President Emmanuel Macron said at the end of the G7 summit in Canada.

“Does anyone think that what was done in Iraq in 2003… or what was done in Libya the previous decade was a good idea? No!” Macron said.

Analysts say ousting Khamenei and his fellow clerical leaders risks creating a vacuum that could be filled by hardline elements in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ ideological force or the Iranian military.

Analysts at the US-based think tank Soufan Center said that with the survival of the Iranian regime now viewed as a “strategic failure,” the prospect of an “Iraq 2.0” is looming.

“The post-regime-change scenario remains unpredictable and could trigger regional destabilization on a scale greater than Iraq, with global ramifications,” they said.

thethingthatshouldnotbee · 20/06/2025 08:10

sualipa · 20/06/2025 07:21

Though based on the evidence you showed, it doesn’t seem that Saddam was personally promoting the suicide bombing phase of the Intifada. That sort of thing was likely cooked up in Hamas’s devilish laboratory. Saddam just swooped in afterward, grandstanding with cash to win points on the Arab street which, if memory serves, was something they were doing anyway.

Then I fact checked it ;

The statement you're referring to includes a mix of historical fact, interpretation, and opinion. Here's a breakdown to help clarify what's true and what is speculative:
🔹 Saddam Hussein and the Intifada (Palestinian uprising):

  • True: Saddam Hussein did publicly support the Second Intifada (2000–2005).
  • True: He offered financial payments to the families of Palestinians who died, including suicide bombers. In some cases, reports suggest he paid $10,000–$25,000 per family.
  • Interpretation: Many analysts agree this was a political move to gain favor on the Arab street, portraying himself as a champion of the Palestinian cause.
🔹 Did Saddam “promote” suicide bombings?
  • Unclear / debated: There is no solid evidence that Saddam directly planned or promoted suicide bombings or was operationally involved.
  • The funding likely came after the fact, as part of a public-relations or propaganda strategy rather than a directive role in planning attacks.
🔹 Hamas’s role:
  • True: Hamas had its own infrastructure and strategy for suicide bombings during the Intifada, independent of Saddam Hussein.
  • While they accepted support, they did not take orders from Saddam. They operated on their own ideology and agenda.
✅ Conclusion:
  • Saddam did fund families of suicide bombers, likely for political gain.
  • He was not a central planner or originator of the suicide bombing campaign — that was driven internally by Palestinian militant groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
  • Your interpretation — that Saddam “came in afterward with cash to grandstand” — is largely supported by the historical record.
Let me know if you want sources or deeper references.

I'm not sure putting something into ChatGPT counts as fact checking.

sualipa · 20/06/2025 08:00

SharonEllis · 20/06/2025 07:49

I corrected an error in your post. You went on to ask me not to claim various things. I was claiming nothing. You then go on to analyse the question of whether Saddam was a 'central planner' or 'originator' of a suicide bombing campaign. Who said he was? Certainly not me. Im not getting lost in your forest of straw men.

When I get my brain from the Wizard I shall return !

SharonEllis · 20/06/2025 07:49

sualipa · 20/06/2025 07:21

Though based on the evidence you showed, it doesn’t seem that Saddam was personally promoting the suicide bombing phase of the Intifada. That sort of thing was likely cooked up in Hamas’s devilish laboratory. Saddam just swooped in afterward, grandstanding with cash to win points on the Arab street which, if memory serves, was something they were doing anyway.

Then I fact checked it ;

The statement you're referring to includes a mix of historical fact, interpretation, and opinion. Here's a breakdown to help clarify what's true and what is speculative:
🔹 Saddam Hussein and the Intifada (Palestinian uprising):

  • True: Saddam Hussein did publicly support the Second Intifada (2000–2005).
  • True: He offered financial payments to the families of Palestinians who died, including suicide bombers. In some cases, reports suggest he paid $10,000–$25,000 per family.
  • Interpretation: Many analysts agree this was a political move to gain favor on the Arab street, portraying himself as a champion of the Palestinian cause.
🔹 Did Saddam “promote” suicide bombings?
  • Unclear / debated: There is no solid evidence that Saddam directly planned or promoted suicide bombings or was operationally involved.
  • The funding likely came after the fact, as part of a public-relations or propaganda strategy rather than a directive role in planning attacks.
🔹 Hamas’s role:
  • True: Hamas had its own infrastructure and strategy for suicide bombings during the Intifada, independent of Saddam Hussein.
  • While they accepted support, they did not take orders from Saddam. They operated on their own ideology and agenda.
✅ Conclusion:
  • Saddam did fund families of suicide bombers, likely for political gain.
  • He was not a central planner or originator of the suicide bombing campaign — that was driven internally by Palestinian militant groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
  • Your interpretation — that Saddam “came in afterward with cash to grandstand” — is largely supported by the historical record.
Let me know if you want sources or deeper references.

I corrected an error in your post. You went on to ask me not to claim various things. I was claiming nothing. You then go on to analyse the question of whether Saddam was a 'central planner' or 'originator' of a suicide bombing campaign. Who said he was? Certainly not me. Im not getting lost in your forest of straw men.

Twiglets1 · 20/06/2025 07:31

mids2019 · 20/06/2025 04:55

I don't agree with the two week window. There is little chance of devaluation during this period for deescalation or the Iranians to negotiate. With the recent hospital bombing of shows that Iran has enough weaponry to inflict damage on civilians in Israel and with the US now having many assets in the region the US could act in parallel with Israel to defeat Iran quickly and decisively possibly limiting the death toll on both sides as Iran quickly surrenders under the pressure of overwhelming military might. 2 weeks is dithering as what will change in that period? Iran has gained breathing space when it was under immense pressure.

Personally I welcome the 2 week window as it seems that Trump does want a peaceful solution to be reached via negotiations ( despite his often fierce rhetoric).

Iran don’t want to negotiate while Israel is still attacking it. I hope the negotiators in Geneva today can agree a temporary ceasefire so that more talks can go ahead hopefully leading to a diplomatic solution to be reached within the 2 week window.

sualipa · 20/06/2025 07:21

SharonEllis · 20/06/2025 07:03

Or fact check before you make such confident assertions?

Though based on the evidence you showed, it doesn’t seem that Saddam was personally promoting the suicide bombing phase of the Intifada. That sort of thing was likely cooked up in Hamas’s devilish laboratory. Saddam just swooped in afterward, grandstanding with cash to win points on the Arab street which, if memory serves, was something they were doing anyway.

Then I fact checked it ;

The statement you're referring to includes a mix of historical fact, interpretation, and opinion. Here's a breakdown to help clarify what's true and what is speculative:
🔹 Saddam Hussein and the Intifada (Palestinian uprising):

  • True: Saddam Hussein did publicly support the Second Intifada (2000–2005).
  • True: He offered financial payments to the families of Palestinians who died, including suicide bombers. In some cases, reports suggest he paid $10,000–$25,000 per family.
  • Interpretation: Many analysts agree this was a political move to gain favor on the Arab street, portraying himself as a champion of the Palestinian cause.
🔹 Did Saddam “promote” suicide bombings?
  • Unclear / debated: There is no solid evidence that Saddam directly planned or promoted suicide bombings or was operationally involved.
  • The funding likely came after the fact, as part of a public-relations or propaganda strategy rather than a directive role in planning attacks.
🔹 Hamas’s role:
  • True: Hamas had its own infrastructure and strategy for suicide bombings during the Intifada, independent of Saddam Hussein.
  • While they accepted support, they did not take orders from Saddam. They operated on their own ideology and agenda.
✅ Conclusion:
  • Saddam did fund families of suicide bombers, likely for political gain.
  • He was not a central planner or originator of the suicide bombing campaign — that was driven internally by Palestinian militant groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
  • Your interpretation — that Saddam “came in afterward with cash to grandstand” — is largely supported by the historical record.
Let me know if you want sources or deeper references.
sualipa · 20/06/2025 07:11

mids2019 · 20/06/2025 04:55

I don't agree with the two week window. There is little chance of devaluation during this period for deescalation or the Iranians to negotiate. With the recent hospital bombing of shows that Iran has enough weaponry to inflict damage on civilians in Israel and with the US now having many assets in the region the US could act in parallel with Israel to defeat Iran quickly and decisively possibly limiting the death toll on both sides as Iran quickly surrenders under the pressure of overwhelming military might. 2 weeks is dithering as what will change in that period? Iran has gained breathing space when it was under immense pressure.

According to rumors, Vance and Witkoff have gotten to him and the Gulf States are reportedly worried about potential attacks on U.S. assets in their countries. They also recognize that a destabilized Middle East benefits few, aside from Israel. Plus, Trump is a complete fool. You should check out Vlad Vexler on YouTube he's a brilliant psycho-social commentator. Despite being seriously ill, he posts daily and offers sharp insights on Trump, saying he “knows nothing about everything.” It’s spot-on.

Oh and the base Carlson/Bannon/MTG where he will have been down rabbit holes if any can talk with him - he takes personal phone calls all the time apparently and makes them, Utter chaos in the decision making process.

SharonEllis · 20/06/2025 07:03

sualipa · 19/06/2025 21:25

It’s Mumsnet, not a court of law! I’m mostly posting from memory and always happy to be corrected we should never stop learning, questioning the world around us, and striving to make it better. My friends will tell you I’m known for the occasional rant… maybe I should rein it in sometimes!

Or fact check before you make such confident assertions?

mids2019 · 20/06/2025 04:55

I don't agree with the two week window. There is little chance of devaluation during this period for deescalation or the Iranians to negotiate. With the recent hospital bombing of shows that Iran has enough weaponry to inflict damage on civilians in Israel and with the US now having many assets in the region the US could act in parallel with Israel to defeat Iran quickly and decisively possibly limiting the death toll on both sides as Iran quickly surrenders under the pressure of overwhelming military might. 2 weeks is dithering as what will change in that period? Iran has gained breathing space when it was under immense pressure.

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