How long until the Iranian regime collapses?

Yes, you carry on mistrusting the UK's biggest ally.

Who on earth would now trust anything the us says?
they’ve just shown that you can be sitting at the table negotiating with them and, while you’re looking for a compromise, they are playing for time to kill you.
We are in very dark times now. Trust is gone. International laws are gone. The strongest and most violent wins. Thank you US and Israel for getting us here…

@Amplepombear

"Do you really believe Netenyahu, a war criminal, is looking for a just cause?"

Whether I do or whether you don't is irrelevant as is emotionally irrationality.

What is relevant is whether the US will keep supplying Israel with the ordinance required to keep bombing Iran.

France’s Macron just now. It seems like Trump lied to them all yesterday and none of the rest of the G7 like it.

Quote from the article: French President Emmanuel Macron said that "the biggest mistake today would be trying to change the regime in Iran through military means." He added that "it seems there has been a change in Trump's opinion on Iran since yesterday. I believe Trump is putting pressure on Iran. I believe we need to return to the negotiating table with Iran."

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rgjct19n1

We better hope not too close or there may be a big bang at some point or a huge lethal leakage of radiation if Israel and the US keep targeting nuclear sites. Or if they do actually have any they may launch them at Israel if pushed to it.

Do you really believe Netenyahu, a war criminal, is looking for a just cause?

An excellent piece in The Guardian, from someone who covered the Iraq war so likely knows what he is talking about.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/17/netanyahu-israel-iran-regime-change-destruction

I think Iran will survive whatever happens, If Israel tries to put in a puppet government that won't last long. There will be resistance all over and a war of attrition against any occupying army. Iran may agree terms with Israel/US and may give up their nuclear ambitions or that may remain secret and hidden underground. And then there is Russia that supports Iran, if they settle the war with Ukraine they may become interested in defending or liberating Iran. Iran has been through many wars and survived.

Ironically the quickest and best way for the Iranian people to preserve their country, their infrastructure, their oil based economy and even their nuclear weapons programme is to depose the current Islamic regime and replace with a Government that is friendlier to the West.

Israel (or potentially the US ) would then have no just cause to continue the conflict.

The removal without a replacement can indeed be very dangerous.

Just to give an example, a year or so after Gaddafi was ousted I bumped into a Libyan acquaintance. She told me things had been tough for her recently as a close family member had been kidnapped in Libya and was being held for ransom. Naturally, I was aghast and asked her what the police were doing to help them. She said 'what police? There is lawlessness in Libya'

Admittedly, i am not aware of the intricate details of what happened after Gaddafi's fall, but i think some people might be viewing a regime fall with rose tinted glasses. Saying that i wish the very best for the people of Iran and wish better leaders for them. I'm just very sceptical that the current effort will necessarily be better for them.

@Jumpupjumphigh

"I don't get it. Trump has called for Iran's "unconditional surrender", but what exactly are they supposed to surrender FROM"

It's really not difficult to understand.

Unconditional surrender means just that - the Government steps down from power and surrenders to the other side who then get to decide who is in power.

Have a look at the history of what happened in the unconditional surrender of Germany or the unconditional surrender of Japan etc etc

Going back to OP's question How long until the Iranian regime collapses, I think it will be soon now that the Ayatollah Khomeini has rejected Donald Trump's demand for unconditional surrender.

Khomeini has said on social media "The battle begins" so I imagine Trump will take that as an invitation and Khomeini will be dead soon.

Stepping back from the nuclear weapons program.
Israel isn’t bombing the hell out of them. It’s targeting known nuclear research and storage facilities.

the removal of the regime in Iran would but a bonus for Israel but it’s not their aim through this bombing campaign

Iran is governed by a brutal dictatorship - they govern by fear, murder, mutilation. It’s horrific for anyone disagreeing. I’m not sure how else this leadership could be removed. Some sort of population uprising???

but what exactly are they supposed to surrender FROM?

I am assuming the Ayotollah stands down, their nuclear sites inspected and decommissioned. I am looking forward to seeing how close "to the point of no return" Iran was in developing nuclear capability. I am also interested to see what the plan is once this happens, how does Iran manage their regime change who takes charge etc

I've a hunch China will be looking at how they could profitably play a post regime situation and doubly so since the previous obvious candidate was the US who is away with the fairies. A stable power with a huge source of hydrocarbons, minerals would be a good fit for them. The US no longer has any strategic depth to their foreign policy just the latest whims of the orange one.

Yes - exactly. This anti west rhetoric seems to have been gathering pace. The west is without doubt not perfect / but it is as near as it gets for women.

I don't get it. Trump has called for Iran's "unconditional surrender", but what exactly are they supposed to surrender FROM? From retaliating when Israel attack them?

So they're supposed to just sit there while Israel bomb the shit out of them and not do anything?

That would take an interesting turn. Khomeini was already lulled into a false sense of security by Netanyahu and Trump before the attack on Friday. He might not want to take his chances again.

I strongly recommend that people read up why we have been ‘exempted’ from tariffs.
A. A large number of the major U.K. business are already owned by US companies so they can’t tax their own, can they?
B. Trump knows this and will use this to try to keep UK on a leash to see how much he can push us. One step out of line, and the temperamental child will throw an almighty tantrum and impose tariffs.

Quite interesting to look at flight radar this evening and see that the only plane flying in and out of Iran was a Chinese flight - originally destined for Luxembourg but ‘diverted’ to Iran. Big enough to carry weapons. Also big enough to taxi the leadership to safety…

He's been deranged for ages.😆

Now he is in serious cognitive decline as well as being deranged. Recently he's mistaken the UK for the EU. He nodded off at his bigly birthday parade. He goes off on terrible rambling weaves when he's supposed to be being the POTUS. And he's fucking up American/ global economy and security.

Trump is acting increasingly foolish. Putin and Netenyahu are taking advantage of this.😬

He is deranged. I hope the No Kings movement gains momentum.

Bye 👋

No I didn't.

Anyway I AS'd the last GBN thread i was on and it was two weeks ago. Two weeks!🤯 You think I remember everyone I've ever been on a thread with?

Catch yerself on.😆

One plane , one bunker buster bomb , all the credit - probably Trump's thinking just now -with Viagra as an aperitif !