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Conflict in the Middle East

Hamas ‘quietly drops’ thousands of deaths from casualty figures

86 replies

Twiglets1 · 03/04/2025 12:42

Article in the Telegraph (unfortunately behind a paywall).

New research shows that Hamas has quietly dropped thousands of deaths from its Gaza war casualty figures.
Salo Aizenberg, from the US-based non-profit organisation Honest Reporting, said that Hamas’s March 2025 casualty update had removed thousands of people it previously listed as having been killed last year.
“Hamas’s new March 2025 fatality list quietly drops 3,400 fully “identified” deaths listed in its August and October 2024 reports – including 1,080 children. These “deaths” never happened. The numbers were falsified – again,” Mr Aizenberg wrote.

The casualty lists are released as PDFs by the Hamas-run Gaza ministry of health, which has been cited by international media as a source for fatality figures in the enclave since the start of the war.
A report by the Henry Jackson Society in December said that the number of civilians killed in the Gaza conflict had probably been inflated by Hamas in order to portray Israel as deliberately targeting innocent people.

Andrew Fox, the author of the report, said the latest deletions are likely to have been an attempt by Hamas to retain credibility.
“We knew there were rafts of errors in their reporting,” Mr Fox said. “There’s a reasonable explanation in that their computer systems went down in November 2023, so it’s been challenging for them to report accurately, but the lists are so unreliable that the world’s media shouldn’t be quoting them as reliable.”
He added: “The UN also just takes Hamas’s figures and publishes them with a note stating the figures are unconfirmed.”
The Hamas lists contain information such as names and ID numbers, and can be filled in by anyone with a link to the Google form for the document.
Hamas will “have gone through the list, trying to make it as convincing as possible. They’ve been accepting names onto that list with no evidence whatsoever”, explained Mr Fox. “So what I’m guessing they’re trying to do is thin out the names they cannot substantiate at all.”

Mr Fox, a former British paratrooper who has worked with Mr Aizenberg on previous research, said the teams use the publicly available Hamas data and cross-check it name by name.
“Salo’s research would be looking for names that were on previous lists but have now disappeared,” Mr Fox explained. “Hamas releases lists as PDFs, so it’s harder to do comparisons but we transfer names to an Excel sheet to do a mass comparison this way.”

About 72% of fatalities aged 13-55 are men, which is the rough age range of Hamas combatants, Mr Fox said. “We know that Hamas uses child soldiers, and these statistics show clearly that Israel is targeting fighting-aged men.”
In previous conflicts, Hamas figures have often been corroborated by external organisations, Mr Fox said.
The Henry Jackson Society’s December report said: “The ministry of health, operating under Hamas, has systematically inflated the death toll by failing to distinguish between civilian and combatant deaths, over-reporting fatalities among women and children and even including individuals who died before the conflict began.
“This has led to a narrative where the Israel Defense Forces are portrayed as disproportionately targeting civilians, while the actual numbers suggest a significant proportion of the dead are combatants.”

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/04/01/hamas-drops-thousands-of-deaths-from-casualty-figurures/

OP posts:
quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2025 09:34

Hengaoxingrenshini · 04/04/2025 09:29

Sorry quantum butterfly, I meant this in support of you!

As in people don't make a fuss about those wars because they aren't between Israel and Gaza!

I'd love to see them in the Hague as they all are guilty of serious war crimes, but I don't think it will happen.

Xie xie

Hengaoxingrenshini · 04/04/2025 09:29

quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2025 09:27

So the various bods at The Hague only deal with Israel and it's allies, that's special.

Sorry quantum butterfly, I meant this in support of you!

As in people don't make a fuss about those wars because they aren't between Israel and Gaza!

I'd love to see them in the Hague as they all are guilty of serious war crimes, but I don't think it will happen.

quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2025 09:27

Hengaoxingrenshini · 04/04/2025 09:24

No we can't, because they aren't fighting a war in Gaza!

So the various bods at The Hague only deal with Israel and it's allies, that's special.

Hengaoxingrenshini · 04/04/2025 09:24

quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2025 09:00

It's going to get very crowded, can we invite Russia, China, Iran, the Sudanese government, (there are a few others), oh and the defacto government of Gaza...what were they called again?

No we can't, because they aren't fighting a war in Gaza!

Twiglets1 · 04/04/2025 09:22

And for someone who started off saying it’s really tasteless to quibble over numbers, it seems strange that you’re now talking about triangulating data and providing estimates to come up with a different set of numbers.

OP posts:
Twiglets1 · 04/04/2025 09:18

Sleepinggreyhounds · 04/04/2025 09:16

@Twiglets1 No - I want to discuss the difficulty in getting a good estimate - which the LSHTM paper discusses in depth. What I don’t want is the assumption that the figure we have, while flawed and clearly from a biased source, are automatically an underestimate. And at least the LSHTM team are demographers / experts with specific expertise and an academic reputation to uphold, unlike Fox who is an ex-squaddie with an axe to grind.

Fox didn’t come up with the new numbers or the old ones - Hamas did.

OP posts:
Sleepinggreyhounds · 04/04/2025 09:16

@Twiglets1 No - I want to discuss the difficulty in getting a good estimate - which the LSHTM paper discusses in depth. What I don’t want is the assumption that the figure we have, while flawed and clearly from a biased source, are automatically an underestimate. And at least the LSHTM team are demographers / experts with specific expertise and an academic reputation to uphold, unlike Fox who is an ex-squaddie with an axe to grind.

Twiglets1 · 04/04/2025 09:09

Sleepinggreyhounds · 04/04/2025 09:07

No this certainly wouldn’t be at all surprising. But interestingly independent attempts to triangulate data and produce estimates come up with a similar or higher number e.g the recent paper by researchers at LSHTM published in the Lancet. This suggested over 60,000.

Oh so you do want to discuss numbers?

But only higher ones … got it.

OP posts:
Sleepinggreyhounds · 04/04/2025 09:07

HermioneWeasley · 04/04/2025 08:46

I for one am shocked that a terrorist organisation whose stated aim is to kill every Jew they see and murdered babies with their bare hands turn out to have been inflating numbers to make Israel look bad. Shocked I tell ya.

No this certainly wouldn’t be at all surprising. But interestingly independent attempts to triangulate data and produce estimates come up with a similar or higher number e.g the recent paper by researchers at LSHTM published in the Lancet. This suggested over 60,000.

quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2025 09:00

grimupnorthnot · 04/04/2025 08:54

Nope Isreal and the IDF are the problem - they created Hamas by constantly breaking ceasfires and all international rules the isreali government and the british/us governments should all the in the hague

It's going to get very crowded, can we invite Russia, China, Iran, the Sudanese government, (there are a few others), oh and the defacto government of Gaza...what were they called again?

Odras · 04/04/2025 08:59

The answer is to let independent researchers and journalists into Gaza.

Twiglets1 · 04/04/2025 08:58

grimupnorthnot · 04/04/2025 08:54

Nope Isreal and the IDF are the problem - they created Hamas by constantly breaking ceasfires and all international rules the isreali government and the british/us governments should all the in the hague

I disagree that the IDF & Israeli government are the problem. I do agree that they are part of the problem. But not as big a problem (in my opinion) as the terrorist organisation that is Hamas ruling Gaza.

This thread is not about the historical reasons for Hamas existing.

OP posts:
quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2025 08:56

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

Isntreal? You really need a spell checker.

Twiglets1 · 04/04/2025 08:54

HermioneWeasley · 04/04/2025 08:46

I for one am shocked that a terrorist organisation whose stated aim is to kill every Jew they see and murdered babies with their bare hands turn out to have been inflating numbers to make Israel look bad. Shocked I tell ya.

When you put it like that … yes it’s not surprising.

OP posts:
grimupnorthnot · 04/04/2025 08:54

Twiglets1 · 04/04/2025 08:44

Some people did deny or minimise the Hamas attack on Israel on 7/10 and made ridiculous claims such as that the IDF staged the attacks themselves to justify an invasion of the Gaza strip.

Very much worse I hope you agree than media outlets reporting on a factual thing like Hamas changing their own death figures.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial_of_the_7_October_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel

Nope Isreal and the IDF are the problem - they created Hamas by constantly breaking ceasfires and all international rules the isreali government and the british/us governments should all the in the hague

grimupnorthnot · 04/04/2025 08:52

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

TomeTome · 04/04/2025 08:51

HermioneWeasley · 04/04/2025 08:46

I for one am shocked that a terrorist organisation whose stated aim is to kill every Jew they see and murdered babies with their bare hands turn out to have been inflating numbers to make Israel look bad. Shocked I tell ya.

Frankly I don’t think anyone needs to help Israel “look bad” at this point. If they want accurate reporting then they need to be a bit more transparent, though I’m not sure that will help their cause.

TomeTome · 04/04/2025 08:49

Twiglets1 · 04/04/2025 08:34

@TomeTome What Mr Fox from the article said was "About 72% of fatalities aged 13-55 are men, which is the rough age range of Hamas combatants" and “We know that Hamas uses child soldiers, and these statistics show clearly that Israel is targeting fighting-aged men.”

Hamas should not be using child soldiers in a war.

Though I do agree with you that under18 year olds should not be described as men.

There are no men under the age of 18 so there is little point in trying to quibble about the percentages when you are unable to even identify the group you are describing accurately. Children who hold guns or bombs or stones are not men.

Is this individual saying that 28% of fatalities in the age group 13-57 are women and children aged 13-18? Nearly a third of that group?

HermioneWeasley · 04/04/2025 08:46

I for one am shocked that a terrorist organisation whose stated aim is to kill every Jew they see and murdered babies with their bare hands turn out to have been inflating numbers to make Israel look bad. Shocked I tell ya.

Sleepinggreyhounds · 04/04/2025 08:45

@Twiglets1 Yes some did - but quite rightly the backlash was massive.

Twiglets1 · 04/04/2025 08:44

Sleepinggreyhounds · 04/04/2025 08:30

I think in certain circles there is a need to remind people that the numbers are real people - Palestinians are regularly dehumanized as “collateral damage”. Imagine the fallout if people had argued over the number of deaths on 7/ 10 before it was clarified.

Some people did deny or minimise the Hamas attack on Israel on 7/10 and made ridiculous claims such as that the IDF staged the attacks themselves to justify an invasion of the Gaza strip.

Very much worse I hope you agree than media outlets reporting on a factual thing like Hamas changing their own death figures.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial_of_the_7_October_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel

OP posts:
TheWisePlumDuck · 04/04/2025 08:42

Did anyone sane ever take those numbers seriously?

Most people I know met the numbers from Hamas with eye rolls.

In my home country there was a terrible natural disaster, it took months to identify and count the dead, and some were never accounted for.

Hamas can tell you the names and date of birth of thousands of murdered children...within a few hours. It was such obvious bullshit.

quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2025 08:38

Sleepinggreyhounds · 04/04/2025 08:30

I think in certain circles there is a need to remind people that the numbers are real people - Palestinians are regularly dehumanized as “collateral damage”. Imagine the fallout if people had argued over the number of deaths on 7/ 10 before it was clarified.

You have a very short memory.

Twiglets1 · 04/04/2025 08:34

@TomeTome What Mr Fox from the article said was "About 72% of fatalities aged 13-55 are men, which is the rough age range of Hamas combatants" and “We know that Hamas uses child soldiers, and these statistics show clearly that Israel is targeting fighting-aged men.”

Hamas should not be using child soldiers in a war.

Though I do agree with you that under18 year olds should not be described as men.

OP posts:
Sleepinggreyhounds · 04/04/2025 08:30

I think in certain circles there is a need to remind people that the numbers are real people - Palestinians are regularly dehumanized as “collateral damage”. Imagine the fallout if people had argued over the number of deaths on 7/ 10 before it was clarified.