IDF publishes report into decision-making around October 7th

Part of Israel being caught off guard was the way in which Israeli intelligence were kept in the dark. Knowing that their communications were being listened to, Hamas leadership conversations just prior to Oct 7 were along the lines of " We're happy with Gazans going into Israel to work, we enjoy the revenue, let's not make waves, nothing going on here. "

Meanwhile they were planning Oct 7 . They didn't tell Hezbollah, because they knew it leaked like a sieve and they didn't tell Iran, because they knew Iran would say "Don't do it".
So they went ahead on their own. Another aspect of the failing of Israeli defence was their reliance on Electronic surveillance. One of the first targets on Oct 7 was the Israeli technology associated with detecting movements along the border.

I read I think it was in the TOI that Netanyahu (with Trump's blessings) is going to announce plans to annexe the west bank in the coming weeks. How likely do you think that is?

Noted, and fairly chastised.

One of the biggest misconceptions I see on this board is that people are determined that there are two (mutually exclusive) camps and this is a kind of football match where you support one or the other. No. This is a complex conflict with (internal) political, national, and international elements, all of which are factors in the negotiations currently going on.

I'm a Jewish Israeli. I have lived here before and after Oct 7th, and I will continue to do so. Decisions about the future directly affect me and my family, and the conflict directly affects us: and yesterday there was a terror attack not far from where I live, somewhere I drive past pretty regularly.

And still. I refuse to see this as a zero-sum conflict. Everyone living between the river and the sea deserves better. Everyone deserves better leadership. The only way we will ameliorate this conflict is to make things better for BOTH Israelis and Palestinians. I'm not a wide-eyed idealist, and I don't think that a peace treaty is about to be signed with white doves flying in the air carrying olive branches. Probably change will be incremental. But both Palestinians and Israelis are dismally let down by the kind of attitude we see on this board every day, with constant bickering and sniping and attempts at any cost to increase distrust. Yes, there is distrust, and there is a long way to go, but people outside the region fanning the flames only empowers intransigent elements like Hamas and Netanyahu and the Israeli far right whose political survival relies on a no-compromise, zero sum narrative, and whose political approaches have been shown again and again to fail to provide security or a better future for their people.

I'm often, frankly, appalled where the bitterness and bad faith around this conflict is far stronger on this internet board among people who have never even been to the region let alone actually reading the languages so they can be properly informed, than it is among the real people on the ground living this conflict.

Thankyou.
In case you formed a different opinion I'm completely in the pro- Israel camp here 😉.

Yes, I'm in Israel. Every poll unequivocally shows that Netanyahu and his coalition will not retain power after the next election. At the moment it's not even about winning the elections - it's about keeping his deeply unpopular government from falling apart and triggering new elections.

I hate to be pessimistic but whilst Trump is around, I don't think Netanyahu is going anywhere.
That image of them both sunbathing together 🤢
Birds of a feather and all that.

I'm in total agreement with you. I just assumed from your name you might be in Israel and have some idea of how this is leaning for next year's election?

Of course we know there were security failures on 7 October! That is exactly what this report is about. The army failed on every level, from envisaging that such an attack could even take place (they had planned for a maximum of 70 terrorists to breach the fence, and 5000 did; the Gaza brigade was totally overrun and outnumbered and for hours the army had no idea what was going on), to a string of failures in dealing with the signs that something was happening on Oct 6, to a number of operational mistakes made on the day. It's all detailed in the report, and the chief of staff and other army leaders have taken responsibility and resigned their posts.

My point is that the political echelon equally needs to take responsibility, since they are in charge of the political conception that is directly responsible for the complete misjudgment of Hamas's aims and capability.

Just to add: it's worth reading the full series of posts (Times of Israel is the fullest English version I've seen so far) to understand also Hamas's strategy and goals in the years leading up to Oct 7.

Speaking as someone who experienced Oct 7 as utter chaos, when I turned on the TV after that Shabbat and the anchors were without words, completely lost to understand what the images were saying, and with desperate people telling their stories on the radio the next morning and trying to find missing people - even though already by the following weekend the news reported timelines of what had happened, this report (along with the specific reports about individual kibbutzim) is a really important stage in understanding what actually happened during those first 72 hours. It's a cliche, but understanding what happened and having individuals admit responsibility is an important step towards some kind of closure.

Honestly I think you should examine why you jumped to that question.

Have you actually read the military time line @Scirocco linked to?

No. No they did not.

Do people in Israel feel that there were security failures on 7 October? Do they feel the hostage situation has been dealt with well? I thought there was significant ill feeling about these towards current administration...?

Thanks for sharing. It makes me wonder if they turned a blind eye to look for an excuse to destroy Gaza and the West Bank etc.

Netanyahu isn't really the story here. Every survey pretty much since he was reelected has had his coalition losing the next elections. His goal right now is to hold onto power as long as possible - elections will be in Oct 2026 unless his government collapses and that's a long time ahead in terms of public opinion.

One way that he is avoiding a further slide is by not commissioning a state inquiry into Oct 7, which would point fingers of blame at him and his government. This inquiry is the army's internal inquiry, which relates only to its own functioning and not to the political echelon, so therefore does not point fingers at the politicians who were responsible for Israel's approach to defending the Gaza border.

Surely Netanyahu can't win another term?

Chilling images of normal looking people breaking into the kibbutz, knowing what they were about to do.

Thanks for posting.