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Conflict in the Middle East
Original poster

Andrew Fox deaths in Gaza report

61 replies

ChangeyerNameyer · 17/12/2024 20:12

I haven't seen much discussion of the report (here: https://henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/questionable-counting/) on mn or in real life. It includes some serious criticism on both the way news sources are reporting the number of dead in Gaza and also on the way Hamas is calculating the number of dead. In 19% of news reports, the Hamas numbers were presented as undisputed and quoted without even citing a source. This is especially worry because it seems that there has been widespread miscounting to make it look like more people died (i.e. counting people who died before October 7th and people who died of natural causes as war dead) and misidentifying people to make it seem like more women and children died (i.e. more than one person with the first name Mohammed was recorded as a woman and adults have been recorded as children). 84% of publications also failed distinguish between combatant and civilian deaths. Whilst any death is obviously a tragedy, it seems like we should be relieved to hear things may not be nearly as bad as we have been lead to believe.

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Tel12 · 17/12/2024 23:12

Perhaps if independent observers and journalists were allowed in then the matter would be cleared up. Equally I'm fairly sure that if all medical resources are destroyed then there's going be a reasonable impact on the life expectancy of the population. Especially if there's a war going on. One thing is sure, thousands of children have been killed and maimed.

Original poster
ChangeyerNameyer · 17/12/2024 23:06

Just to be clear, is your concern that it is demonising Muslims or Islam to hold news sources in the west to higher standards regarding the accuracy of numbers they share and analysis of sources? I’m not sure I understand the point you're making. If that is your point, it’s seems wrong. If the BBC (for example), was reporting the IDF’s numbers without analysis, it wouldn’t be antisemitic to say “there are some issues with this source”? Hamas are legally defined as terrorists in Europe. It seems plausible that they have a vested interest in using the data to give a false impression, and it seems like there is pretty good evidence that have successfully done that. Even if you think the researchers were motivated to research this field by ignorance or hatred, if their research is sound then we should look at the implications.

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Martymcfly24 · 17/12/2024 22:34

Co-founder Matthew Jamison, who now works for YouGov, wrote in 2017 that he was ashamed of his involvement, having never imagined the Henry Jackson Society "would become a far-right, deeply anti-Muslim racist ... propaganda outfit to smear other cultures, religions and ethnic groups". He claimed that "The HJS for many years has relentlessly demonised Muslims and Islam".[63]

Maybe Israel should let journalists and NGOs in and they could count the dead bodies

YouGov - Wikipedia

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/YouGov

Original poster
ChangeyerNameyer · 17/12/2024 22:17

I don’t doubt that both Israel and Hamas have lied in the past. I'm pretty sure this is a British source though, not an Israeli one. It seems to be a UK-based, charity / think tank, written in English and Andrew Fox is (as far as I can tell from google) British. I haven’t seen any sources for statistics other than Hamas and the IDF, so this seems to be the most neutral option I’ve come across.

I am inclined to believe studies over anecdotes because the anecdotes which people share most often are the ones with the best narratives, not the ones which are most representative of the broader situation. It’s why we’ve all heard about that neighbour whose sister’s son got autism from a vaccine, even though the studies consistently show that vaccines don’t cause autism.

If this report is even partly true, it’s much more than just a few miscounted individuals, it’s thousands of dead combatants counted as dead children and tens of thousands fewer deaths than we thought. That’s huge and would be great news.

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Martymcfly24 · 17/12/2024 21:58

Israel has historically lied too.

Things are as terrible as possible.

Do you genuinely think a biased survey that has shown in the heat of war a couple of numbers and dates of birth were misrecorded overrides the hours of testimony from doctors/charity workers on the ground or the footage of devastation we have seen?

Seriously.

Original poster
ChangeyerNameyer · 17/12/2024 21:40

I don't know enough about social studies to be qualified to critic the study, so I'd be really interested to hear what makes you think it's poor quality? Hamas is a terrorist organisation which has historically lied quite a lot about a broad range of things, and has a strong incentive to make things (and make things sound) as terrible as possible, so it isn't beyond possibility that the numbers are intentionally wrong, although I don't think wrong numbers are proof of intentionally lying. I'm sure it's very easy to read / write e.g. 4 instead of 34 in the heat of the moment.
From the report, it seems like they looked at the ID numbers of the people reported dead and saw that the data recorded with the death does not match the data recorded with that person, e.g. the date of birth shows that they were in their 20s but the death is recorded as a young child. What is wrong with using that as a method?

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Kindatired · 17/12/2024 21:30

@ChangeyerNameyer Biased source. Poor study design. At compete odds with the BMJ and any other proper scientific studies or models. Hamas run health ministry figures generally quite reliable in previous wars. Satellite imagery consistent. Pulverised bodies not counted. Buried bodies not counted. Families wiped out and not registered dead.Israelis scouring social media for evidence of those reported dead , drones everywhere ditto. No heartwarming stories from “Mohammad in Bohola thought his uncle was dead but was overjoyed to learn that he is enjoying chicken kebabs on the beach” or Fatima in London speaks to the sister Hamas said was dead etc etc.

No, these people are gone forever, their relatives can only hope that they will meet in the next life.

Lalaloveya · 17/12/2024 21:11

No one said it was banned, but the study is total rubbish.

I don't know why the thread was deleted.

And @ChangeyerNameyer , re the last line in your OP, things are as bad as they appear to be in Gaza. Some people will try very hard to deny the reality of what's happening, but it is happening.

Original poster
ChangeyerNameyer · 17/12/2024 20:26

It seems like a report from UK-based think tank should be up for discussion. It's registered with the Charity Commission and seems to be fully legal and above board. Why would it be banned to share their articles?

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Original poster
ChangeyerNameyer · 17/12/2024 20:21

I must have missed that thread entirely! Sorry for the repeat.

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Martymcfly24 · 17/12/2024 20:17

The last thread that had this report on was deleted.

The Andrew Jackson society have a serious agenda.