Can anyone help me undestand who we want to win in Syria?

Wonder why Israel has been bombing Syria…. Hmmmm could it be the Hezbollah militias and IRCG presence in Syria helping Assad murder Syrian people…. Could it possibly be for reasons of Israels own security to reduce arms supplies to a country that has been bombing it since the 8th October….maaaaaaybbeeee. They aren’t attacking Basher al Assad, they are attacking Iranian and Hezbollah in Syria.

Some Lebanese actually fled to Homs when Israel entered Lebanon. Want to guess why? Because Homs is held by Hezbollah, thats why.

I never get what they people actually think about this. Basically if you follow “the jooos did it” line of reasoning on everything in the middle east it then it means arabs are really dumb and easily manipulated, which is perhaps not the line anyone actually wants to take.

I’ve taken an interest in the history of places like Yemen recently. They are not dumb, makes western political machinations look like a nursery fistfight in comparison. Extraordinary how deft some leaders are at managing factions, until they get assassinated of course .

Plus right now it look like the Turks did it. Also definitely not dumb.

Most arab countries have their own motivations which have very little to do with the west and very much to do with their own regional power and security.

Has anyone heard of Oded Yinon plan? It is also called the Greater Middle East project. The plan basically provides a blueprint for Balkanization of the Middle East for Israel's land expansion and security. This is why most people, starting from the invasion of Iraq, think conflicts/wars in the Middle East have somehow, something to do with Israel:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YinonPlan

"Both Becker and Polkinhorn admit that avowed enemies of Israel in the Middle East take the sequence of events—Israel's occupation of the West Bank, the Golan Heights, its encirclement of Gaza, the invasion of Lebanon, its bombing of Iraq, airstrikes in Syria and its attempts at containing Iran's nuclear capacities—when read in the light of the Yinon Plan and the Clean break analysis, to be proof that Israel is engaged in a modern version of The Great Game, with the backing of Zionist currents in the American neoconservative and Christian fundamentalist movements. They also conclude that Likud Party appears to have implemented both plans."

I think Assad struggles to measure up to the crimes of the Israeli administration, so having the Israelis act as arbiters of justice isn't reassuring

@Dulra

"I have no doubt if supporters from either side of this conflict in Syria were posting on these boards justifying the atrocities there would be massive push back and rightly so."

So in the conflict between HTS and the Assad government there are no "good guys or bad guys " and this is true for pretty much every conflict. It's a question of the lesser of two evils.

In which case the lesser evil imo is the Assad government. If HTS were to win or conquer more territory then you would have a cross between ISIS and the chaos of Libya. The Assad government offers some semblance of stability (especially if you do as you are told).

Now I fully expect someone to now accuse me of being an Assad apologist, fascist, genocide apologist etc etc and how can I justify the deaths of 400 civilians including numerous children (according to the White Helmets). But the truth is war is ugly but there is generally a side which different parties/ countries would prefer to be the winning side.

Assad's regime tortured innocent people, used chemical weapons on civilians and more. Bringing him and his allies to justice would be celebrated by many people who suffered at their hands.

As I said, the 'how' and 'what next' are problems. There is no clear 'good' outcome here.

The US and Israel deciding to try and replace a secular government with a gang of religious nutcases is a cause for celebration?

Are they wrong that Israel is involved, given the BBC article they posted detailing the air strikes they have been carrying out over the past year?

Oh please, Israel, and the US are all in on this, they've been trying to get rid of Assad for years

And there it is.

The removal of Assad's regime in itself would be cause for a lot of celebration around the world. It's the 'how' and 'what next' questions that are a bit more complicated.

Oh please, Israel, and the US are all in on this, they've been trying to get rid of Assad for years

BBC News - Israeli strikes on Syria's Palmyra kill 36, state media say
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clydpg9kj88o

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/iran-backed-iraqi-militias-join-fight-in-syria-after-militants-seize-aleppo

Iran-backed militia groups on the ground now.

In other words 'it's complicated', rather like the Gaza/Israel conflict.

Pick a side and justify it, and thank your God (if you have one) that you're not in the middle of it.

You can donate to, or volunteer for ( bit dangerous ) relief efforts. I'm a bit cynical about many big charities but realistically what else is constructive? Oh and join some community and interfaith projects in your home country because terrorism works by creating division, fear and resentment.

Sadly as you can see from the number of posts on this thread there appears to be little angst compared to Gaza threads.
This in itself is quite telling about the hidden motivation of posters on some of the Gaza posts.

Very simplistic way of looking at it and not sure why you need to use what is happening in Syria to point score but here we are. I have no doubt if supporters from either side of this conflict in Syria were posting on these boards justifying the atrocities there would be massive push back and rightly so. The majority of posters agree with each other, and support their governments stance on the situation which tends to limit the need to debate

At this point in a long and politically complex conflict, the situation isn't as simple as 'good guys vs bad guys'. The rebel group leading this particular advance has a long and rather morally questionable history (to say the least). And Assad and his government are responsible for countless atrocities and the destruction of so many lives in his quest to hold on to power at any cost.

You could simplify things down to considering who's backing who, and pick which side you feel is less of an imminent danger (eg if Iran and Russia want someone to have control, is that more or less risky for you in the short/medium/long term?). But it's more complicated than that in reality.

@mids2019

"As Israel is not involved I wonder how much angst there is going to be on this thread about the fate of the Syrians"

Sadly as you can see from the number of posts on this thread there appears to be little angst compared to Gaza threads.

This in itself is quite telling about the hidden motivation of posters on some of the Gaza posts.

This.

Some people blame Israel for everything. Of couse free pass to everyone else, its all wah wah wah Israel's fault.

It will be the civilians of Aleppo that are going to suffer immensely as Assad counter attacks and I hope the media cover the conflict with same profile as Gaza for balanced reporting. As people are suggesting because Israel are not involved there will be no mass rallies in London for a ceasefire for the protection of Syrian civilians even if God forbid chemical weapons are used once again.

As Israel is not involved I wonder how much angst there is going to be on this thread about the fate of the Syrians?

Honestly Israel isn’t responsible for every shitshow in the middle east. It’s not like they are responsible for al the jihadis and Islamists running around everywhere.

The racism of low expectations towards Arabs, with the healthy dollop of Jews-controlling-everything paranoid antisemitism.
The usual really.

According to the Putin loving antisemite Max Blumenthal.

It was called Operation Timber Sycamore and Trump's administration phased it out when he took office in 2017.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timber_Sycamore :
"One consequence of the program has been a flood of US weapons including assault rifles, mortars and rocket-propelled grenades into the Middle East's black market. Critics of the program within the Obama administration viewed it as ineffective and expensive, and raised concerns about seizure of weaponry by Islamist groups and about Timber Sycamore-backed rebels fighting alongside the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Nusra Front and its allies.[9]"

He's back in January 2025 so perhaps the timing of this action was a case of now or never. Luckily so far it appears that the fighting has been limited to the Syrian Army vs the "rebels". The leader of HTS Al-Jalani has apparently already been killed.

USA isn’t actually funding islamists all over the middle east

Perhaps not directly but by indirect covert means they have a long history of doing so as a means to foment discontent and enact regime change. Unfortunately innocent local civilians are usually the victims:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Contra_affair

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Cyclone#:~:text=The%20second%20six%2Dyear%20assistance,support%20under%20the%20Reagan%20Doctrine.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_intervention_in_the_Syrian_civil_war

according to this it was patchy and lasted only 4 years.

The islamists were already there, they were all fighting ISIS at the time, including HTS who used to be the Al Nusra. The Taliban are still fighting Isis, Al-Qaeda is still fighting Isis.

Broadly I agree, we should stop handing money to Islamists, but at the time and initially the FSA said they were pluralistic and democratic and then dissolved into chaos.

I mean the USA isn’t actually funding islamists all over the middle east. Terror funds generally come from the proceeds of crime (and Iran and Turkey, who by the way are very much explicitly funding the people trying to kill the kurds in Syria). Except in Afghanistan where apparently Al-Qaeda have a stakes in gold mining.

Correct, Israel is not responsible for funding and training all the Jihadi groups running around the region, their chief protector though is another story.

I mean why would America back 21 out of 28 militant groups that fought in North Syria.

https://thegrayzone.com/2019/10/16/us-backed-crazy-militias-turkeys-invasion-syria/
Ironically destabilising all these countries in the region is of benefit to Israel.

In fact in 1996 there was a report "the Clean break" produced by a think tank recommending some of the things we've seen play out in the region
https://medium.com/dan-sanchez/clean-break-to-dirty-wars-d5ebc5fda9f9

As former Nixon and Reagan senior advisor Pat Buchanan put it:
“In the Perle-Feith-Wurmser strategy, Israel’s enemy remains Syria, but the road to Damascus runs through Baghdad.”

Honestly Israel isn’t responsible for every shitshow in the middle east. It’s not like they are responsible for al the jihadis and Islamists running around everywhere.

I can’t access the articles.

The first one is about Israel providing medical aid in exchange for protection of minorities? That doesn’t sound like it’s an awful decision to make given they can’t institute regime change but can do something to protect a vulnerable group.

Can’t see second one at all. What does it say?

Tbh I can see how Israel would have contributed by eroding IRCG and Hezbollah in Syria.

I wouldn’t call that a win for Hezbollah, most of their leadership is dead, tunnels have been collapsed and their weapons stockpiles have been massively reduced. Reminds me of that monty python sketch “the black knight”