Can anyone help me undestand who we want to win in Syria?

Unless Putin shows up for Bashar al Assad it looks like it could be over for his family business, the rebels look set to capture his stronghold of Homs and terrified Alawites are fleeing. I imagine many will head to Iran.

That's always the case with geo politics and its incredibly naive to think otherwise. It also doesn't have to be the 'wrong thing' to do and is why stability is sometimes prioritised over 'morality' because chaos can lead to a host of horrific outcomes - which would not be moral. Politicians & miltary commanders have to take strategic decisions all the time, basically lose a battle to win the war. That can mean that certain sacrifices can lead to better democratic outcomes for more people etc. Its called pragmatism & it can align with morality, even if there is always going to be tension, given the imperfect situations that we're usually dealing with and the large numbers of immoral actors involved. Its an approach that's been around since the beginning of time.

@Begsthequestion

"Why not take the side of the ordinary people who are suffering under both"

Or why not take the side of the party / group that in your opinion will cause the least suffering to ordinary people.

In a normal world it would be choosing the party / group that creates the most benefit to ordinary people, unfortunately in Syria it is choosing the lesser of two evils on who causes the least harm.

What I’ve learned this past year, is that certain countries treat parts of the Middle East like a strategy game, in which the human rights of individuals aren’t given as much weight as other objectives. It isn’t about democracy and it isn’t about doing the right thing, it’s about power.

Why do you think you need to take one of these sides?

Why not take the side of the ordinary people who are suffering under both?

Of Assad does not fall in the next couple of weeks I predict another civil war of it is not happening already. The government will use all its remaining military strength including air power to hit away at rebel positions presumably now embedded in captured cities (Hamas and Hezbollah aren't the only ones that can use this trick).

Of course everyone does worry about the human rights implication of a rebel take over and a refugee crisis both in the region and ultimately across Europe but the media (or at least parts of it) don't talk about this to a great extent.

I would say Jordan, Morocco ( both are kingdoms, maybe that provides some stability), also the gulf states ( basically they stuff the population’s mouths with gold), also Tunisia. But Syria is far from being like those countries. It’s been under a very repressive regime for 2 generations.

Which predominantly Islamic countries treat their people better? There are a number of countries with major problems with either government or leadership eg Syria, Iran or massive terrorism eg Yeman, Lebanon. Why is that?

Is there any room whatsoever for optimism here? I wouldn’t shed any tears for Assad if and when he fell, the worry of course is who will replace him. Can it be anything else than a coercive Islamist regime that will result in persecution of religious minorities and a sharp loss of women’s rights?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t

BBC live page of today's events in Syria.

Remember it's the fog of war right now, with (extremely well funded) assets on both sides spreading a truck load of propaganda. It would be fascinating if there weren't innocent civilians caught in the middle.

Looking at that site Navalnews it appears to be amateurs who report Open source information with their own analysis likely with little to no contact with military intelligence.
https://www.navalnews.com/about-us/
Sort of a long form Twitter OSINT account.

Very little "truth" around right now.

From the Pro HTS Rebel Side:
*Assad has so far fallen 500 times today and he just about to resign. Cue many cries of Homs then Damascus falling and pictures of "liberation" by the "rebels" (previously associated with Al Qaeda and ISIS).
*Russia and Iran have abandoned Syria and done a deal with Turkey and the West to leave Syria in exchange for sanctions relief.
*There was even a "lovely" article a UK paper about how a Jalani administration in Syria would be "inclusive".

From the Pro Assad Side:
The battlefield was chaotic, earlier today there were reports of the Syrian Arab Army retreating from Hama.

However, HTS appear to have stretched themselves too far forward in response to the SAA "abandoning" Hama.
That retreat by the SAA appears to have been a feint/fake, because the Russian airforce just bombed the Rastan bridge between Hama and Homs cutting the HTS forces in half, with the SAA following on the ground killing many HTS rebels.

We won't know more until tomorrow. Poor poor civilians caught up in this mess.

Is Russia pulling away.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/12/first-sign-russian-navy-evacuating-naval-vessels-from-tartus-syria/

Syria where Assad is vile and Hezbollah back some of the uprising. People are caught between 2 awful outcomes

For clarity, it's people, this is the Syria deaths on the Syria thread.

'Estimates of the total number of deaths in the Syrian Civil War, by various war monitors, range between 580,000 as of May 2021,[1] and approximately 617,910 as of March 2024.[2] In late September 2021, the United Nations stated it had documented the deaths of at least 350,209 "identified individuals" in the conflict between March 2011 and March 2021, but cautioned the figure was "certainly an under-count" that specified only a "minimum verifiable number".[3][4][5]'

This was your point

'Golden407 · 03/12/2024 03:58
I think Assad struggles to measure up to the crimes of the Israeli administration, so having the Israelis act as arbiters of justice isn't reassuring'

Struggles to measure up. So he tries hard, but just isn't quite as bad. Just wow. But there you go. Not quite as you reframed it, once called out.

You say you didn't mean to derail this thread, but you did.

You say that it's incredibly vulgar to be playing top trumps with statistics, but you did it anyway.

The thread was and is about Syria, but as always, some cannot allow that and so Gaza.

Hundreds of thousands of people were killed and continue to be killed by Assads supporters.

Your original point was crass and inappropriate. People commented on it and it was suggested by others it should be called out. You still stand by it.

My thoughts to the innocent people of Syria.

I didn't mean to derail this thread, apologies. Also, as stated above. It's incredibly vulgar to be playing top trumps with statistics regarding the deaths of children. It's not what I intended. Again apologies.
My point, and I stand by it. Is there are a number of horrific governing regimes around the world and I include a number of western and western affiliated governments within that statement. Turkey, Israel and the wider West are funding and supplying the insurgency in Syria for their own wider geopolitical aims. They couldn't care less about the people of Syria and have no moral superiority over the Assad government

No idea you will have to scroll back to see where it happened

I am not here to in any way suggest Assad is not an evil despot who has inflicted immense pain and suffering on Syrian civilians but you are not comparing stats accurately. There is a difference between 20,000 killed in 12 years and 16,000 killed in 15 months.

Both are horrific but it is not accurate to suggest someone has a prejudice because they highlighted the high number of Palestinian children killed in such a short space of time which is higher than the number killed globally in the last 4 years of conflict. These are shocking figures that highlight the huge risk to children currently living in Gaza and it needs to be repeated over and over if there is any hope in protecting the children still alive. Maybe check your own prejudice

How has a thread about Syria become about Gaza?

@Dulra

"Facts are not getting in the way of prejudice they are highlighting the huge proportion of children killed in Gaza"

So the post by @Golden407 stated:

Can you point out anything Assad is accused of that compares?"

I simply provided linked evidence from Statista (albeit old at March23) that does indeed point out a comparable number of deaths of children by the Assad regime.

This is not a competition on whether Assad or Netanyahu is killing the most children. It is simply answering / correcting a statement by @Golden407 and then inquiring as to the motives on why such a statement was made in the first place

https://dppa.un.org/en/gaza-number-of-children-killed-higher-four-years-of-world-conflict

This report is from March. The last figure I heard was over 16,000 children. That is over 16,000 killed in 15 months. Facts are not getting in the way of prejudice they are highlighting the huge proportion of children killed in Gaza

I'm sure that's true. For context, I was referring only to those under 5 years of age. If you want to include all children then I'm in Gaza it's over 25, 000 I believe plus at least another 5000 in southern Lebanon.
Is worth bearing in mind the wars involving Israel have only been going on for just over two years as opposed to the almost 14 years war in Syria.

Quite a start they've made

@Golden407

"According to UN figures over 3000 children under the age of five have been slaughtered in Gaza alone. Can you point out anything Assad is accused of that compares?"

As of March 2023, the Syrian regime forces and Iranian militias have killed more than 20,000 children since the start of the Syrian conflict. The Russian forces have killed a further 2,048 children.

www.statista.com/statistics/697188/child-deaths-in-syria-by-party-responsible/

Still let's not let facts and figures get in the way of obvious prejudices.