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Conflict in the Middle East

Can anyone help me undestand who we want to win in Syria?

168 replies

MeJuly · 01/12/2024 09:48

Obviously what I really want is for all the killing to stop. But I can't work out which of the sides would be better for us here in the UK if they won. Can anyone who understands what the hell is going on help?

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Kendodd · 08/12/2024 17:14

Whatsinanamehey · 08/12/2024 15:45

Often people from western countries try to impose their way of doing things on countries that don't want that, just because they think that's best. It's not always the case and certainly not always best suited to some countries.

Democratic countries do seem much more stable generally though and the people living in them much less oppressed. That's certainly the impression I get anyway, happy to be corrected if wrong.
Not just thinking of Western countries either, including places like Japan.

TheGander · 08/12/2024 17:11

Hopefully we have learnt from some of our mistakes.

Whatsinanamehey · 08/12/2024 15:45

Often people from western countries try to impose their way of doing things on countries that don't want that, just because they think that's best. It's not always the case and certainly not always best suited to some countries.

TheGander · 08/12/2024 15:27

I agree with you @1dayatatime and what you said occurred to me after I’d posted. The situation in Afghanistan is simple compared to Syria, which has greater religious and ethnic diversity and possibly several groups vying for power whereas in Afghanistan only the Taliban were real contenders.

TheGander · 08/12/2024 15:23

Kendodd · 08/12/2024 12:18

Which Muslim country in the world would be the best example to follow? One that is properly democratic, and protects the rights and freedoms of minority groups?

There are no democracies in the Arab world. Only monarchies ( without democratic government) , or dictatorships of varying degrees of viciousness. Syria has been one of the worst. I grew up in an Arab country; and here in the U.K. I have or have had Arab colleagues tell me openly that Arabs are not suited to democracy. What they want is a dictatorship that runs mostly for the benefit of the people, not a small clique and then represses everyone else.

BigDecisionWorthIt · 08/12/2024 13:25

I think any thought of complete control and elections/step forward is too much wishful thinking at the moment.

The worry (hopefully just that and not reality) is whether the fall of Assad will take that area back to a 2014-esque issue just in reverse.

The power vacuum caused by the topple of Assad and how the Syrian military pretty much "downed tools and ran" is eerily similar to the fall of Iraq to Daesh which resulted in the group taking over a large portion of Iraq before capturing and holding territory in Syria.

HTS will have a battle on their hands to take over the SDF/Kurdish controlled regions of Syria... which could see the need for Coalition Forces to increase in the region and increase the risk of spillover into a not very stable Iraq.

OchaLove · 08/12/2024 13:18

Kendodd · 08/12/2024 12:21

Turkey?

Turkey has a moderated version of Islam, so yes, can be/is an example.
It is a democratic and secular state by its constitution. Actually, the constitution states laicism rather than secularism, we can object and criticize many things related to this issue but let's accept it on principle. Also, worthy to note, under current government, the country moved to a more centralized type of governance in recent years which is criticized heavily by the opposition.
Turkey has its faults but still is a decent and functional country.

SharonEllis · 08/12/2024 13:05

Mrsbloggz · 08/12/2024 13:03

I wonder if there's any hope that Assad will be brought to justice?

Edited

Almost none I would say, unless reports he's had a myseterious plane crash are true, which would be some kind of justice. Too many regimes implicated in his regime who will give him cover.

Mrsbloggz · 08/12/2024 13:03

I wonder if there's any hope that Assad will be brought to justice?

1dayatatime · 08/12/2024 12:28

@quantumbutterfly

"I think a few of us have an idea of what Iran and Afghanistan were before Islamism took over and are pessimistic, though possibly not as worried as Turkey."

The problem Turkey has just found out is that if you choose to back your enemy's enemy as your friend you then discover that once your enemy has been defeated the side you chose to back turns out to be an even greater enemy and so on.

1dayatatime · 08/12/2024 12:25

@TheGander

"No, an Afghan model would be worst case scenario but I am going to dare to hope for something better"

I fear the worst case scenario is much worse than the Afghan model. At least in Afghanistan the repression and persecution was being done by one dominant party - the Taliban.

The opposition in Syria is much more fragmented, more so than even Libya.

So in my mind the worst case scenario is all the extreme Islamist persecution and repression of Afghanistan combined with the fragmented civil war of Libya in a failed state / lack of any order such as Somalia. All the while with Russian and Iranian interference.

It really isn't a hopeful picture and the fall of the Assad dictatorship is nothing to celebrate imo.

Kendodd · 08/12/2024 12:21

Turkey?

Kendodd · 08/12/2024 12:18

Which Muslim country in the world would be the best example to follow? One that is properly democratic, and protects the rights and freedoms of minority groups?

quantumbutterfly · 08/12/2024 12:02

TheGander · 08/12/2024 11:55

No, an Afghan model would be worst case scenario but I am going to dare to hope for something better. Syria, despite being led by a despotic and ruthless regime, has by the standards of the Middle East been culturally and socially advanced in terms of respect for minorities, and a certain level of freedom and physical safety for women in public spaces. How much those freedoms existed because they were underpinned by Assad’s repression ( ie he kept the fundamentalists down) and how much they were due to inherent Syrian cultural traits remains to be seen.

I think a few of us have an idea of what Iran and Afghanistan were before Islamism took over and are pessimistic, though possibly not as worried as Turkey.

TheGander · 08/12/2024 11:55

No, an Afghan model would be worst case scenario but I am going to dare to hope for something better. Syria, despite being led by a despotic and ruthless regime, has by the standards of the Middle East been culturally and socially advanced in terms of respect for minorities, and a certain level of freedom and physical safety for women in public spaces. How much those freedoms existed because they were underpinned by Assad’s repression ( ie he kept the fundamentalists down) and how much they were due to inherent Syrian cultural traits remains to be seen.

OctoberOctopus · 08/12/2024 08:48

One of the next questions is how whomever takes power treats minority groups whether they are non Muslim, gay, etc or how women are treated. Iran and Afghanistan aren't great role models for treatment of women.

OctoberOctopus · 08/12/2024 08:44

mids2019 · 08/12/2024 05:48

Well it's game over and this shows the extent Assad was reliant on Hezbollah and Russia for his rule.

The military victory of Israel over Hezbollah is apparent as Hezbollah is a shell of its previous self and didn't have the capacity to influence the uprising in Syria. Similarly Russia has invested all its resourced into Ukraine.

I am intrigued into how the West didn't quite see this coming and it is a fairly worrying time given the nature of HTS as Islamist extremism is not something we want to see more of given the current situation in the middle east. Indeed there is the possibility of Syria becoming a failed state of other countries are slow to recognise any new government.

They should perhaps thank Israel for decimating hezbollah terrorists.

Hopefully some free elections in Syria. I hope the country takes a moderate route. What we haven't seen is raping and torture of women and children during this take down of assad. Those types of approaches never work, especially when attacks are on or in another country.

Russia and Iran quickly left assad to it. One had its proxies weakened dramatically by Israel and the other busy fighting in Ukraine. The timing for Syria seems the best for taking on assad

Whatsinanamehey · 08/12/2024 06:20

The Alawites have apparently been told they will be safe but many have fled. Assad was an evil dictator so I don't think many will be sorry to see the back of him. There's huge celebrations over Syria right now.

mids2019 · 08/12/2024 05:48

Well it's game over and this shows the extent Assad was reliant on Hezbollah and Russia for his rule.

The military victory of Israel over Hezbollah is apparent as Hezbollah is a shell of its previous self and didn't have the capacity to influence the uprising in Syria. Similarly Russia has invested all its resourced into Ukraine.

I am intrigued into how the West didn't quite see this coming and it is a fairly worrying time given the nature of HTS as Islamist extremism is not something we want to see more of given the current situation in the middle east. Indeed there is the possibility of Syria becoming a failed state of other countries are slow to recognise any new government.

ScrollingLeaves · 07/12/2024 20:48

User37482 · 05/12/2024 06:41

I understand what you are saying, that it feels stigmatising. I do have some sympathy with that, we have our own extremists and I cringe when I hear about them because they don’t reflect the behaviour of anyone I know. I definitely do not want anyone looking at me and thinking that I approve of or associate with any dumb shit they say or do because I find them revolting.

But it is the only way to describe it and to understand it. It explains motivations and why some things are done and why other things aren’t. I consider christians who wish to even ban contraceptives in the USA to be religious extremists. Using the phrase “Christian extremists” is a shortcut to explain someones ideology and motivations. It definitely does not mean I think every Christian is an extremist or holds secret extreme views.

I do agree that we need to be careful to separate out extremist and those who are practicing their religion whilst not bothering anyone else. I am genuinely sorry if I gave the impression that I considered anyone who was muslim to be an extremist, I definitely do not believe that. But it’s precisely why I use the term “Islamic extremist” in the same way I would say “hindu extremists” “Jewish extremist” or fundamentalist. To separate them from all the muslims, jews, hindus etc who are not extremists and don’t endorse violence and oppression towards others on the basis of their own religious beliefs.

But it’s precisely why I use the term “Islamic extremist”

If I have understood you, I think that for what you are meaning the word is “Islamist”.

AI overview:
Islam is a religion, while Islamism is a political ideology that seeks to derive legitimacy from Islam:

I think the AI can be trusted here as I recall another poster explaining the difference which I never knew before.

LetThereBeLove · 07/12/2024 20:48

SharonEllis · 07/12/2024 19:25

I think you've misunderstood but hey ho!

Deliberately so!

TheGander · 07/12/2024 20:36

It’s looking worse and worse for Assad. Looks like the cavalry isn’t coming for him, either from Russia or from Iran, unless it’s all a big game of bluff. My guess is he’s left the country.

SharonEllis · 07/12/2024 19:25

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I think you've misunderstood but hey ho!

LetThereBeLove · 07/12/2024 19:22

TheGander · 07/12/2024 11:48

Unless Putin shows up for Bashar al Assad it looks like it could be over for his family business, the rebels look set to capture his stronghold of Homs and terrified Alawites are fleeing. I imagine many will head to Iran.

2000 Syrian soldiers have sought 'refuge' in Iraq according to the Guardian.

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