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Conflict in the Middle East

The aftermath

243 replies

Auvergne63 · 12/10/2024 10:39

All wars end. I use the term "war" very loosely as I don't view this as a war.
What will happen to the Gazans? How can live in such devastation? How can they deal with so much trauma? Will they ever recover?
Gaza faces a massive reconstruction challenge. Here are key facts and figures | Reuters
The former Israeli prime minister Olmert thinks that Netanyahu has no plan for after the war. He has been a strident critic of his actions.
Ex-Israeli PM makes devastating condemnation of Netanyahu’s war in Gazan | The Independent
Here is a link to his peace proposal in collaboration with Nasser al-Kidwa
Former Israeli PM and former Palestinian foreign minister lay out joint plan to end Israel-Hamas war | CBC News

Ex-Israeli PM makes devastating condemnation of Netanyahu’s war in Gaza

Exclusive: Ehud Olmert tells The Independent that the ‘arrogance’ of his successor led to catastrophic security failures that allowed the bloody Hamas attack and that continuing an untenable military mission while hostages are still being held would be...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/netanyahu-olmert-gaza-offensive-israel-b2493430.html

OP posts:
Arafina · 15/10/2024 11:01

Auvergne63 · 15/10/2024 10:26

I really dislike the way the term Arabs is used on these threads. No one would refer to a French citizen as an European. When someone ask me where I am from, I don't reply Europe.
It is, in effect, erasing their own and varied cultures and religions.I think some posters equal Arabs with Muslims. You can guess where I am going with this.

Exactly, sadly it's all part of the dehumanisation of people they don't like, at best it's ignorance at worst it's indoctrination

SharonEllis · 15/10/2024 10:53

Daftasabroom · 15/10/2024 10:29

evacuating 60k people from the border, housing them, repairing damage

The cost of this is going to be tiny, not even an order of magnitude, a whole exponential at least less than that wrought on Gaza.

As of June, the last stats I could find, Israel had dropped 70,000,000 kg of explosive on Gaza. Seventy million kilogrammes. I'll say it again seventy million kilogrammes.

You missed out the 'etc, etc'. I'm not sure why this is addressed to me anyway, as my post was not about the weight of bombs or about any sort of comparison with costs of damage to gaza. It was about the proportion of US funding to Israel compared to Iranian funding to Hamas/Hezbollah. You are welcome to take up the figures with the Israeli Treasury.

Daftasabroom · 15/10/2024 10:29

SharonEllis · 15/10/2024 09:34

Thats why I used the word 'proportion' (i.e %) not 'amount'. It costs vast amounts more to defend rather than attack & the Iron Dome is expensive while H& H rockets are relatively cheap. Its hard know exactly as Israel and those who either sell them military equipment, or the US who also gives military aid, are transparent about publishing figures while of course Iran, Hezbollah & Hamas are not. But most commentators I've read suggest that Iran supplies most of their military spend in one way or another. US annual aid is around $3billion and there was a one-off package of $14billion. Israeli spending on the war over the last year was about $60billion, around half of which was civil rather than military - evacuating 60k people from the border, housing them, repairing damage from incessant hezbollah attacks etc etc.

evacuating 60k people from the border, housing them, repairing damage

The cost of this is going to be tiny, not even an order of magnitude, a whole exponential at least less than that wrought on Gaza.

As of June, the last stats I could find, Israel had dropped 70,000,000 kg of explosive on Gaza. Seventy million kilogrammes. I'll say it again seventy million kilogrammes.

Auvergne63 · 15/10/2024 10:26

Arafina · 15/10/2024 09:30

What an ignorant statement, all Arabs are not the same, they don't all share the same language, religion or culture, should all Catholics be banished from the UK to Italy just because they are Catholics, some people just love segregation it seems

I really dislike the way the term Arabs is used on these threads. No one would refer to a French citizen as an European. When someone ask me where I am from, I don't reply Europe.
It is, in effect, erasing their own and varied cultures and religions.I think some posters equal Arabs with Muslims. You can guess where I am going with this.

OP posts:
Kendodd · 15/10/2024 09:50

Auvergne63 · 14/10/2024 19:07

I was reading an article about the numbers of Israelis emigrating. It is at record high.
Israel faces record emigration as thousands leave the country - Israel News - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)
Meanwhile the Israeli economy is struggling.
Israel faces a looming financial crisis if it fails to act, former chief economist warns | The Times of Israel
"Swamped mental health services, a semi-functioning education system, economic decline, collapsing businesses, troubling gun accidents and a rise in crime. Even if most Israelis won't oppose the war for the sake of Gazans, they better start looking at the huge toll it is taking on their own lives."
No my words but those from an Haaretz's journalist.

I don't blame Israelis for leaving if they can, I would as well. Likewise if I was Palestinan and could go live somewhere else.

OctoberOctopus · 15/10/2024 09:36

SharonEllis · 15/10/2024 09:34

Thats why I used the word 'proportion' (i.e %) not 'amount'. It costs vast amounts more to defend rather than attack & the Iron Dome is expensive while H& H rockets are relatively cheap. Its hard know exactly as Israel and those who either sell them military equipment, or the US who also gives military aid, are transparent about publishing figures while of course Iran, Hezbollah & Hamas are not. But most commentators I've read suggest that Iran supplies most of their military spend in one way or another. US annual aid is around $3billion and there was a one-off package of $14billion. Israeli spending on the war over the last year was about $60billion, around half of which was civil rather than military - evacuating 60k people from the border, housing them, repairing damage from incessant hezbollah attacks etc etc.

They spend a lot trying to keep their people safe. A year of attacks from Hamas and Hezbollah.

SharonEllis · 15/10/2024 09:34

Whatsinanamehey · 15/10/2024 08:29

And how do you know that? I'm sure I read US military aid to Israel in the last year was something like 17 billion! And that's just the US. I highly doubt Iran is sending the same amount to Hezbollah and Hamas.

Thats why I used the word 'proportion' (i.e %) not 'amount'. It costs vast amounts more to defend rather than attack & the Iron Dome is expensive while H& H rockets are relatively cheap. Its hard know exactly as Israel and those who either sell them military equipment, or the US who also gives military aid, are transparent about publishing figures while of course Iran, Hezbollah & Hamas are not. But most commentators I've read suggest that Iran supplies most of their military spend in one way or another. US annual aid is around $3billion and there was a one-off package of $14billion. Israeli spending on the war over the last year was about $60billion, around half of which was civil rather than military - evacuating 60k people from the border, housing them, repairing damage from incessant hezbollah attacks etc etc.

Arafina · 15/10/2024 09:30

Notaflippinclue · 14/10/2024 09:22

Interesting article in the Times on Saturday about the expulsion of 14 million Germans from their homes in the East in 1945 half a million died the world didn't care because of revelations of the holocaust. He goes on to say Israel could persue the expulsion of Palestinians from the West Bank and Egypt should accept the displaced people of Gaza as they say Arabs have many countries - Israel has only one.

What an ignorant statement, all Arabs are not the same, they don't all share the same language, religion or culture, should all Catholics be banished from the UK to Italy just because they are Catholics, some people just love segregation it seems

Daftasabroom · 15/10/2024 09:12

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Whatsinanamehey · 15/10/2024 08:29

SharonEllis · 15/10/2024 07:26

Except Russia/Iranian aid as a proprtion is far greater than US aid to Israel.

And how do you know that? I'm sure I read US military aid to Israel in the last year was something like 17 billion! And that's just the US. I highly doubt Iran is sending the same amount to Hezbollah and Hamas.

Scirocco · 15/10/2024 08:08

The aftermath will include the global effects of trauma experienced by everyone with loved ones affected. How can people who have seen their entire families, entire communities massacred be expected to be ok on The Day After? How can people who have seen what some organisations and governments want to do to them be expected to trust those same organisations and governments on The Day After? Who's going to rebuild the ruins of Gaza, of Lebanon? Who's going to free people from occupation and prevent further terrorism? Who's going to provide reparations and justice for the innocent people who have suffered beyond what most people could imagine?

The aftermath will include repercussions for innocent people in other societies who now, more than was perhaps necessary 18 months ago, need to think about safety on a whole new level. If we send our children to a mainstream school, will they be even more at risk of harm and will the adults tasked with keeping them safe actually contribute to that harm? If we let our children go to play in the local park, will they be attacked with weapons? If we take them out for a walk, how many graffitied death threats will be on the route? If we speak our own family's languages in public, will we be targeted? These were things people needed to consider, but it's on a whole new level now.

SharonEllis · 15/10/2024 07:26

israelilefty · 15/10/2024 07:09

BTW, the Mexico analogy is terrible but a slightly better analogy is perhaps the Cuban missile crisis where destructive weapons were placed far beyond the borders of the relevant countries. The ultimate issue behind this conflict is the balance of power between countries aligned to the US/Israel/moderate Arab states and countries/groups aligned with Russia/Iran. Often comments on these forums note Western military aid to Israel without noting that the same is the case on the other side: Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis are funded and armed by Iran/Russia.

Except Russia/Iranian aid as a proprtion is far greater than US aid to Israel.

israelilefty · 15/10/2024 07:09

BTW, the Mexico analogy is terrible but a slightly better analogy is perhaps the Cuban missile crisis where destructive weapons were placed far beyond the borders of the relevant countries. The ultimate issue behind this conflict is the balance of power between countries aligned to the US/Israel/moderate Arab states and countries/groups aligned with Russia/Iran. Often comments on these forums note Western military aid to Israel without noting that the same is the case on the other side: Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis are funded and armed by Iran/Russia.

israelilefty · 15/10/2024 06:52

I agree largely with @mouthpipette's reading, though I wouldn't say "relatively harmless". The level of fire from Hezbollah has been immense - something like 13,000 rockets and UAVs during the course of the war. There have been few deaths on the northern border because Israel has great air defences, there is an alarm warning system and most homes have a protected room, and the towns right by the border have been evacuated - though for example in Majdal Shams, Kiryat Shmona and the Golani base we have seen what happens when the systems fail. The lack of deaths is not for want to Hezbollah trying, and they are trying pretty hard at the moment to hit civilian infrastructure too (how do I know? I live 50+ miles from the border and was woken up this morning again by sirens from a rocket attack targeting energy infrastructure in my area).

The damage around the northern border is colossal, and so is the societal impact of having 60,000 people evacuated from their homes and businesses. Even a year later there's a kid in my kid's kindergarten whose address is a local hotel being used to shelter displaced people, and everyone I know from the northern villages just south of the evacuation line is completely frayed from a year of rocket fire.

There has also been a strategic impact: one of Hezbollah's aims was to make sure a big proportion of the IDF would be tied up on the northern border dealing with the rocket attacks.

For Israel the big issue driving the present conflict with Hezbollah is the need to have the northern residents return to their homes. For this to happen, they need to be confident that Hezbollah is not sitting right on the border. A lot of posters here have ridiculed Israeli fears of a 7/10-style attack from the north, but the 2006 war with Hezbollah began from a cross-border raid and this time at least one Hezbollah tunnel crossing the Israeli border has been found.

I hope that there is a diplomatic solution rather than a military one. The international community needs to take implementation of UN resolution 1701 which requires Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani river seriously. It's all very well that 10,000 UNIFIL soldiers are deployed in the area, but they have been utterly ineffective in preventing Iran's proxy army from establishing very significant military infrastructure in the area. Southern Lebanon needs to be governed by Lebanon, not by Hezbollah.

GoForARun · 15/10/2024 04:23

Thank you OP and mouthpipette for your balanced and considered responses. Much appreciated.

Hunglikeapolevaulter · 15/10/2024 00:46

What's ridiculous is trivialising Hezbollah's year-long assault as "relatively unimportant", and then bitching when Israel retaliates.

mouthpipette · 15/10/2024 00:15

Realistically, imagine this was Mexico lobbing rockets across the US border, meaning that several million people (if you look at percentage of population) had to evacuate and hundreds (again extrapolating to population size) were killed. Do you imagine that the US would dismiss that as "relatively unimportant", or do you think they'd retaliate? @Hunglikeapolevaulter

Ridiculous analogy, Mexico and the states have not been engaged in a brutal and bloody set of wars over the past 60 years. It's as irrelevant and superficial as the "What if Norway ...."
Whilst engaging in this discussion, try to include context.

Hunglikeapolevaulter · 14/10/2024 23:09

But Hezbollah did not join in. Up until about a month ago, their contribution was relatively harmless. There were exchanges of artillery and rockets across Israel's northern border ( mostly directed at the other sides military positions) but in the grand scheme of things, they were relatively unimportant. Few people were killed in the 11 months since Oct 7 and the main result was that there were lots of brush fires and 60,000 Israelis had to evacuate.

Realistically, imagine this was Mexico lobbing rockets across the US border, meaning that several million people (if you look at percentage of population) had to evacuate and hundreds (again extrapolating to population size) were killed. Do you imagine that the US would dismiss that as "relatively unimportant", or do you think they'd retaliate?

mouthpipette · 14/10/2024 22:40

I think he (Netanyahu) has actually been played by Hamas, in the sense that they wanted him to react the way he has, in the hope that other terrorists would join in and the conflict would broaden, which it has. @Auvergne63

But Hezbollah did not join in. Up until about a month ago, their contribution was relatively harmless. There were exchanges of artillery and rockets across Israel's northern border ( mostly directed at the other sides military positions) but in the grand scheme of things, they were relatively unimportant. Few people were killed in the 11 months since Oct 7 and the main result was that there were lots of brush fires and 60,000 Israelis had to evacuate.

The only really devastating weapon that Hezbollah have is their "doomsday launch" in which they simultaneously send thousands of missiles and rockets into Israel. They were estimated to have anything up to 120,000 before the conflict, though a good proportion of these will have been destroyed in the past 3 weeks.

Iron dome ( a battery of 20, which takes time to reload) , David's sling and Arrow 2 and 3 would be unable to cope with this onslaught and enough Hezbollah missiles would get through to cause extensive death and destruction. Hezbollah have held back on this option, because it would be a major escalation that could drag Iran and the US in on more than just the token "we're here to help.. up to a point" that they have done so far.

So whilst you might think what is happening at the moment is bad, it could get far, far worse.
Of course the whole thing could stop now if certain parties would entertain the idea of a ceasefire.... but they won't.

mouthpipette · 14/10/2024 22:18

GoForARun · 14/10/2024 19:25

OP, this is a genuine, respectful and curious question. No sarcasm or spin in it at all:

What would you have had Israel do, as its response, in the aftermath of 7/10?

Israel should have lined up its tanks and artillery along the border to prevent any repeat, and then sat down and negotiated a hostage release, as a first stage towards negotiating an end to a conflict that has been festering for decades.
Surely that would have been better than this.
Until November the Israelis didn't even try to negotiate the hostages out of Gaza.

Auvergne63 · 14/10/2024 21:49

GoForARun · 14/10/2024 19:25

OP, this is a genuine, respectful and curious question. No sarcasm or spin in it at all:

What would you have had Israel do, as its response, in the aftermath of 7/10?

I feel that the Israeli government should have used a focused counterterrorism strategy, By this I mean that they should have targeted Hamas leaders ( wherever they are) as well as their foot "soldiers". They have shown that they can do this, multiple times. Their intelligence agency is one of the best, if not the best, in the world.
i am no military expert but the IDF appears to be the most powerful army in the ME and has advance military technology too.
Of course, I am not saying that sending special forces into a densely populated place would be without serious risks to them. I believe that they are trained for these types of operations though. These are elite troops.
But the Israeli response would have had to be delayed and well planned.
Targeted air raids on weapon cash would have been needed too , which would have kept civilian casualties down.
The problem is, in my view, is that the failure to take heed of the warnings of an eminent attack by Hamas and the slow response to said attack by the IDF has led Netanyahu to make the decisions he has made.
I think he has actually been played by Hamas, in the sense that they wanted him to react the way he has, in the hope that other terrorists would join in and the conflict would broaden, which it has.
But before all this, I think he should have agreed to the deal that Hamas put on the table on the 09/10 offering the release of the hostages.
Finally, I believe that Israel has the right to self defence and a duty to protect its citizens but within the international laws the Israeli government signed up to.
Carpet bombing, starving a population and depriving civilians of the basics for life will not, in my mind, increase the security of Israel. Quite the contrary.
Anyway, this is my opinion, only an opinion, so of no more value than any others.
I just wish that the suffering of any innocents stopped.

OP posts:
MissyB1 · 14/10/2024 19:41

Daftasabroom · 14/10/2024 19:33

Holdup, what Hamas did to Israel was indeed appalling but don't pretend for even one second that Israel have no responsibility for the genocide in Gaza and the ethnic cleansing of the West Bank.

100% this 👆

Daftasabroom · 14/10/2024 19:36

OctoberOctopus · 14/10/2024 18:35

This.

And it's why some of us support other posters comments. We value accuracy.

If you value accuracy you might want to edit George Floyd comments, his murder was absolutely not universally or quickly condemned.

Daftasabroom · 14/10/2024 19:33

OctoberOctopus · 14/10/2024 19:10

Indeed. What hamas unleashed on both Israel and Gaza is appalling.

Holdup, what Hamas did to Israel was indeed appalling but don't pretend for even one second that Israel have no responsibility for the genocide in Gaza and the ethnic cleansing of the West Bank.

GoForARun · 14/10/2024 19:25

OP, this is a genuine, respectful and curious question. No sarcasm or spin in it at all:

What would you have had Israel do, as its response, in the aftermath of 7/10?

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