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Conflict in the Middle East

What price will Israel pay?

39 replies

Catatonican · 05/10/2024 11:50

Whichever side you support, surrounded by enemies near and far, undoubtedly whatever the outcome of this war, Israel will need to pay a price.

Some say the price is 24/7 vigilance. What are your thoughts?

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Kindatired · 06/10/2024 09:48

I think Israelis will live in a permanent state of amber security alert that will overshadow anything hitherto. There may be a honeymoon period while existing terrorist groups reconstitute or are superseded by more radical ones drawn from the ranks of the injured parties from the current wars, but ultimately it’s impossible to suppress their ideology by military means.
People’s every day life will be restricted to an unprecedented extent. Arab Israeli citizens will likely bear the brunt of this and a small minority will become radicalised, leading to an upsurge in suicide attackers, with knifes and guns, trucks, cars. Clampdowns will follow, mass internment on a greater scale than at present. The spiral will continue.
I suspect that Iran will retaliate for its humiliation by supporting various jihadist to target the Jewish diaspora in a greater scale- areas near Israeli or American or British embassies, schools , bakeries/ delis etc . The fear of antisemitic attacks may lead to inward migration that could balance the emigration of left wing intellectuals, so the population could even increase.
I think the future looks very grim generally for this part of the world.

ScrollingLeaves · 06/10/2024 00:35

Kindatired · 05/10/2024 17:56

@Daftasabroom I think most evidence over time suggests that destabilisation leads to increased radicalisation, poverty and reduced economic and educational opportunities. War and poverty go hand in hand and are generally linked to high birth rates, large family size , reduced access to education that affects women in particular, and an increasingly patriarchal and uneducated society. So the most likely outcome is a spiral of early marriage, high child mortality, large family size, unemployed angry young men political unrest, corruption, violence and radicalism and mass exodus of those who have skills and money to interrupt the pattern.
I can’t see Israel funding a Marshall plan

This is so true I think.

Very poor young men who have no hope can feel they have a cause to live fighting for and to die for, the cause being their idea of God and their tribe. They have nothing to loose in giving up everything for that cause - these are terrorists.

Polka83 · 06/10/2024 00:16

@speakamore
There is no other option but to have a ceasefire. The road ahead will be difficult but peace is not going to be achieved by conflict. Of all the experts in both articles below - none are suggesting continuing conflict will lead to peace.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/05/what-next-for-the-middle-east

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clylzx1xz2yo

speakamore · 05/10/2024 23:40

Strange how people are taking direct contact from Hamas and their merry band of terrorist brothers, and speaking their lies like it's fact.

They want Jews erased. They have it written down that they'll tolerate Christian's and others. But not Jews.

There's no peace with these people and although I am in full agreement that this should end, that surely no peace can be obtained with all of this going on, what exactly do you think will happen if Israel just stop?

Do you really think it'll be as simple as a two state solution? Do you really think Israel will be safe?

Polka83 · 05/10/2024 23:32

Not sure why some people keep insisting failure to reach a ceasefire is fault of Hamas only? Hamas accepted a ceasefire agreement in May only for Netanyahu to change the goalposts. This resulted in a dispute with his defence minister who felt Netanyahu’s demands were unnecessary.

If there had been a ceasefire in the summer - then of course the degree of escalation there is now would have been prevented.

Whatsinanamehey · 05/10/2024 23:24

stomachamelon · 05/10/2024 23:21

@Whatsinanamehey hardly 'hoodwinked' anyone then did he?

He did. He assured the US and France that he would agree to a temporary truce with Lebanon whilst secretly having no intention to. He is a liar, always has been.

stomachamelon · 05/10/2024 23:21

@Whatsinanamehey hardly 'hoodwinked' anyone then did he?

Whatsinanamehey · 05/10/2024 23:18

Netanyahu has stated that he will settle for nothing less than a 'total victory' anyone who thinks he wants peace or is even vaguely interested in a ceasefire is on the path of delusion.

mouthpipette · 05/10/2024 23:17

"Doing the West's dirty work while being denigrated for it." @PurpleChrayn

There's a great deal of truth in that. There are many hawks in the US who see Iran as a serious threat and as such would love to see it "neutralised". And whilst wishing to see Iran fall, they are not so foolish as to suggest sending in US troops. In the meantime, if their ally, Israel can make life for Iran and its proxys, less comfortable, then why not let them do so.
Of course, caught up in all this are the lives of Israelis and Palestinians and Lebanese and countless others. However, their wellbeing does not trump the long terms plans of the US.

And as for Israel being denigrated for what it is doing. Well it should be. Its response has been brutal, inhumane and worst of all, unnecessary. Israel also knows that despite mumblings of "enough is enough" from the west, when push comes to shove, Israel will always have the west's backing. So, it feels like it has a free rein to do what it wants with its adversaries, of which, Iran is one.

Yes it is helping the west to do its dirty work.

stomachamelon · 05/10/2024 23:16

@SharonEllis they just want Israel to roll over and let them get on with. 'Destabilising' that's laughable.
Israel's response to extreme provocation is the same as any other country would be.
Ceasefires are two way things and there is very little discussion about what Hamas/ Hezbollah etc are going to do to promote a ceasefire or move things forward.

readysteadynono · 05/10/2024 23:15

I’m still praying for peace. But that feels like a miracle more than it ever has.

Polka83 · 05/10/2024 23:15

Hezbollah stopped firing at Israel during the last ceasefire.

Netanyahu has been changing the goalposts for a ceasefire and stipulating demands from Hamas that even the Israeli military are saying are unnecessary. It couldn’t be anything to do with Netanyahu’s coalition keeping him in power being reliant on there not being a ceasefire?

readysteadynono · 05/10/2024 23:15

It’s flipping dangerous the game they are playing. It’s obviously immoral. But just safety wise, they have made the chance of more of their citizens being harmed so much higher. American could and should be staging an intervention for everyone’s sakes. It’s incredibly worrying and horribly sad that peace is now further away than it’s been in generations.

Whatsinanamehey · 05/10/2024 23:14

SharonEllis · 05/10/2024 23:11

Israel's not destabilising the region. Iran is destabilising the region.

Israel is another country that is contributing in destabilising the region. Just because you think it isn't, does not mean you are correct.

SharonEllis · 05/10/2024 23:11

Polka83 · 05/10/2024 23:03

As far as I can see - most countries just wish Israel would stop destabilising the region and agree to a ceasefire.

This is not just about stopping Israel from killing innocent people, but also stopping an escalation that would effect world economy due to impact on oil prices and also draw in soldiers from other countries. The UK government has said they will help defend Israel but not by attacking Iran. Biden has asked Israel not to attack Iranian oil rigs and nuclear sites.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/29/european-ministers-call-for-immediate-ceasefire-in-lebanon

Israel's not destabilising the region. Iran is destabilising the region.

Whatsinanamehey · 05/10/2024 23:11

ohthejoys21 · 05/10/2024 23:00

PurpleCharyn

"Are you serious?

Israel has single-handedly disarmed fucking Hezbollah and eradicated its top leadership. Doing the West's dirty work while being denigrated for it.

A 2SS will not work when one of those states (Palestine) wants Israel gone and refuses every solution offered"

This sums it up nicely. This is only about killing Jews. What people don't understand is that it will soon be about killing anyone who does not practice sharia law.

The ignorance is astounding. If Hezbollah's goal as you say is to kill all those who don't practice shariah law, you would think they would make a start in their own country first. Hint: incase you didn't understand that they have a considerably large Christian population living there.

stomachamelon · 05/10/2024 23:10

@Whatsinanamehey I think out of all the world's politicians and their actions Netanyahu has been the most concise and clear about his objectives since October 7th.

Ceasefires are the election busting bullshit that come out of the Americans mouths. Hamas haven't Been to the table since July and no one agreed even on who Hamas have hostage.

You can't negotiate with that.

With regard to Lebanon what do you suggest when rockets have been fired consistently since Oct 7th into northern Israel displacing thousands. Contravening UN conventions from years ago repeatedly. Would you just have liked it to continue with no response from israel?

SharonEllis · 05/10/2024 23:10

Daftasabroom · 05/10/2024 23:05

Why should disarming Hezbollah be the West's dirty work?

Brcause they dont want to do it themselves and it would be problematic to intervene in the region themselves especially as it would bring them closer to direct confrontation with Iran.

Daftasabroom · 05/10/2024 23:05

PurpleChrayn · 05/10/2024 22:25

Are you serious?

Israel has single-handedly disarmed fucking Hezbollah and eradicated its top leadership. Doing the West's dirty work while being denigrated for it.

A 2SS will not work when one of those states (Palestine) wants Israel gone and refuses every solution offered.

Why should disarming Hezbollah be the West's dirty work?

Daftasabroom · 05/10/2024 23:03

Catatonican · 05/10/2024 21:35

The US will continue to fund and support Israel as they are now their only foothold in the region since they decided to get rid of their friend Saddam.

What about Saudi? They have been closer to the US and have kept a very low profile in the last year.

Polka83 · 05/10/2024 23:03

As far as I can see - most countries just wish Israel would stop destabilising the region and agree to a ceasefire.

This is not just about stopping Israel from killing innocent people, but also stopping an escalation that would effect world economy due to impact on oil prices and also draw in soldiers from other countries. The UK government has said they will help defend Israel but not by attacking Iran. Biden has asked Israel not to attack Iranian oil rigs and nuclear sites.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/29/european-ministers-call-for-immediate-ceasefire-in-lebanon

European ministers call for immediate ceasefire in Lebanon | Lebanon | The Guardian

France says Israel must stop strikes, as governments voice alarm over escalation and killing of Nasrallah

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/29/european-ministers-call-for-immediate-ceasefire-in-lebanon

ohthejoys21 · 05/10/2024 23:00

PurpleCharyn

"Are you serious?

Israel has single-handedly disarmed fucking Hezbollah and eradicated its top leadership. Doing the West's dirty work while being denigrated for it.

A 2SS will not work when one of those states (Palestine) wants Israel gone and refuses every solution offered"

This sums it up nicely. This is only about killing Jews. What people don't understand is that it will soon be about killing anyone who does not practice sharia law.

Whatsinanamehey · 05/10/2024 22:47

PurpleChrayn · 05/10/2024 22:25

Are you serious?

Israel has single-handedly disarmed fucking Hezbollah and eradicated its top leadership. Doing the West's dirty work while being denigrated for it.

A 2SS will not work when one of those states (Palestine) wants Israel gone and refuses every solution offered.

Are you serious??

Yes they are doing dirty work by bombing the shit out of Lebanon and even bombing hospitals there (bombing hospitals seems to have become a hallmark for the IDF)

You must be having a laugh if you think they did it for the west. The entire 'west' was hoodwinked by Netanyahu after he agreed to a ceasefire and then went behind their back because he preferred dropping buster bombs in dense cities instead.

roses2 · 05/10/2024 22:38

marmaladeandpeanutbutter · 05/10/2024 15:43

We will all pay the price, unfortunately.

Eg

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g5evx4y7xo

The UK military was there as back-up to help Israel defend itself against Iranian missiles this week. RAF Typhoons were in the air on Tuesday night ready to support Israel’s own defences. Israel also had support from the US.

In the end, the UK didn’t fire any of their weapons. But back in April, RAF Typhoon jets based in Cyprus shot down Iranian drones.

So the UK and US are helping Israel against Iran? I wasn't aware of that level of help!

PurpleChrayn · 05/10/2024 22:25

itwasnevermine · 05/10/2024 20:20

I think PP are right - they cannot fight their way into peace. All they are doing is destabilising the region around them and laying the groundwork for even more extreme groups to come out of the woodwork and take control of the region. It's happened countless times before.

Are you serious?

Israel has single-handedly disarmed fucking Hezbollah and eradicated its top leadership. Doing the West's dirty work while being denigrated for it.

A 2SS will not work when one of those states (Palestine) wants Israel gone and refuses every solution offered.

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