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Conflict in the Middle East

To understand the escalation in Lebanon, we must confront what Israelis are thinking

381 replies

Gunnersforthecup · 28/09/2024 09:44

Rather good and well-informed article in the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/28/escalation-lebanon-israelis-benjamin-netanyahu-hamas-hezbollah

"It is almost certainly true that the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has political reasons for prolonging the conflict. But while a majority of Israelis would probably like a different prime minister, many don’t want to stop the war until they think that both Hamas and more particularly Hezbollah – which has tied its actions directly to Gaza – have been neutralised as serious threats.

And that is because behind both groups they see an Iran that is dedicated to their destruction...

This isn’t simply about the US and its western allies. This time the Gulf states – and most of all Saudi Arabia – are going to be key actors. The prize of normalisation with Israel has not disappeared. But the price has gone up. It will certainly include the effective containment of Iran and its allies – and an answer to real, not simply declarative, Palestinian statehood. And this time we need to make it stick. Otherwise the pain we are seeing now will not simply not go away. It will get a lot worse."

To understand the escalation in Lebanon, we must confront what Israelis are thinking | John Jenkins

Netanyahu has his own reasons for prolonging the conflict, but many Israelis still want to see Hamas and Hezbollah neutralised, says former British diplomat Sir John Jenkins

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/28/escalation-lebanon-israelis-benjamin-netanyahu-hamas-hezbollah

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SharonEllis · 03/10/2024 12:39

HelenHen · 03/10/2024 12:28

😂 stop trying to twist my words please.

Stating why I believe Iran has done something is not any kind of indication that I support them.

But reading that conversation thread you are very clearly minimising the threat of Iran to Israel and the wider region. Which is not a mainstream position - pretty much everyone agrees Iran is the major destabilising force in the region through its proxies and its sponsoring of extreme Islamism at home and abroad.

Dulra · 03/10/2024 12:38

Icanthinkformyselfthanks · 03/10/2024 12:26

@Daftasabroom , in this instance it means that the Arabs achieve their aim of the annihilation of the state of Israel.

Arabs achieve their aim of the annihilation of the state of Israel.
Arabs? All Arabs? or is it better if you were a bit more specific here rather than accuse a whole group of people of something

Daftasabroom · 03/10/2024 12:38

SharonEllis · 03/10/2024 12:17

To wear Israel down psychologically, to degrade their defensive capabilities and to rally regionsl support - look like they are calling the shots. Do you know how much it costs to intercept a missile each time? Some do get through. These are not a few 'warning shots'.

I think the continued escalation is psychologically damaging to everyone in the region, I don't think Israelis are in a unique position in that respect.

I've no doubt Iranian military intelligence will have paid very close attention to the Israeli response. The general consensus in the media is that Iran doesn't have the resources to beat Israel in a war of attrition.

to rally regional support - look like they are calling the shots by far the most likely. I think the actions of both Netanyahu and the Iranian military are as much for internal effect as they are external.

inamarina · 03/10/2024 12:37

HelenHen · 03/10/2024 12:28

😂 stop trying to twist my words please.

Stating why I believe Iran has done something is not any kind of indication that I support them.

You didn’t just state why you believe Iran fired those rockets.
You said “they fired a few warning shots”. I agree with pp that that’s an odd minimisation.

EasternStandard · 03/10/2024 12:37

HelenHen · 03/10/2024 12:28

😂 stop trying to twist my words please.

Stating why I believe Iran has done something is not any kind of indication that I support them.

It’s a question and I’m not sure why you are crying laughing it’s not an amusing topic

I’m reading your posts and wondering if you do, as the words are minimising and you’ve missed Iran’s nuclear capacity

But for clarification do you find the latter concerning?

inamarina · 03/10/2024 12:32

EasternStandard · 03/10/2024 12:19

‘Warning shots’ is an odd minimisation

But also even more concerning to see these posts regarding Iran as their nuclear capabilities are being discussed

Is there support for Iran on here?

The way some posters try to minimise the actions of Israel’s opponents is astonishing.
Someone was saying the other day (not quite sure whether on this thread or a different one) that the rockets Hezbollah have been firing at Israel since last October were of not much consequence, basically nothing to see here.

HelenHen · 03/10/2024 12:28

EasternStandard · 03/10/2024 12:19

‘Warning shots’ is an odd minimisation

But also even more concerning to see these posts regarding Iran as their nuclear capabilities are being discussed

Is there support for Iran on here?

😂 stop trying to twist my words please.

Stating why I believe Iran has done something is not any kind of indication that I support them.

Icanthinkformyselfthanks · 03/10/2024 12:26

Daftasabroom · 03/10/2024 10:19

It was really was just a question. No body seems to be talking about what happens after this awful conflict.

@Icanthinkformyselfthanks used the word succumb, but what does that mean? It could mean very different things to different people.

@Newbutoldfather suggests we support Israel because they are a democracy? Why? We support many countries that are not democracies.

Is Israel really in an existential situation? No, I think that's massive hyperbole. Is Gaza in an existential situation? Yes. The West Bank? It looks too late TBH.

@Daftasabroom , in this instance it means that the Arabs achieve their aim of the annihilation of the state of Israel.

EasternStandard · 03/10/2024 12:19

SharonEllis · 03/10/2024 12:17

To wear Israel down psychologically, to degrade their defensive capabilities and to rally regionsl support - look like they are calling the shots. Do you know how much it costs to intercept a missile each time? Some do get through. These are not a few 'warning shots'.

‘Warning shots’ is an odd minimisation

But also even more concerning to see these posts regarding Iran as their nuclear capabilities are being discussed

Is there support for Iran on here?

SharonEllis · 03/10/2024 12:17

Daftasabroom · 03/10/2024 12:14

What do you think the intent of the missiles was? Iran knew full well that Israel would destroy most of not all the missiles. If firing the missiles had little military significance why would Iran fire them?

To wear Israel down psychologically, to degrade their defensive capabilities and to rally regionsl support - look like they are calling the shots. Do you know how much it costs to intercept a missile each time? Some do get through. These are not a few 'warning shots'.

Daftasabroom · 03/10/2024 12:14

blackcherryconserve · 03/10/2024 11:57

'A few warning shots'? Dozens of ballistic missiles are not a few warning shots. Give your head a wobble.

What do you think the intent of the missiles was? Iran knew full well that Israel would destroy most of not all the missiles. If firing the missiles had little military significance why would Iran fire them?

marmaladeandpeanutbutter · 03/10/2024 12:13

The Israeli leader is not calm, and he is forced this way and that by the ultra right wing ministers in his government. That is hugely contributing to the failure to find a settlement, and to changing his mind about it when one is negotiated. That lot will accept nothing less than the permanent annexation of the West Bank, as discussed again today in the Guardian.

blackcherryconserve · 03/10/2024 11:57

HelenHen · 03/10/2024 10:19

Sleepwalking? Is that how you explain bombing, bulldozing, killing tens of thousands, displacing millions of people?

I love how you're twisting the blame now to Iran, because they fired a few warning shots at military targets

'A few warning shots'? Dozens of ballistic missiles are not a few warning shots. Give your head a wobble.

EasternStandard · 03/10/2024 10:33

HelenHen · 03/10/2024 10:19

Sleepwalking? Is that how you explain bombing, bulldozing, killing tens of thousands, displacing millions of people?

I love how you're twisting the blame now to Iran, because they fired a few warning shots at military targets

I love how you're twisting the blame now to Iran

Are you following the situation with Iran’s nuclear capability?

I can’t think of anyone in the west that would be mad enough to welcome that. Think through the complexities and outcomes.

Perhaps you missed the updates this morning.

Penpenpens · 03/10/2024 10:22

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 11:53

I personally think a ceasefire with the establishment of a Palestinian state with full control over its borders, trade and so on and containment of Israeli aggression would “neutralise” Hamas and Hezbollah.

They draw their recruits from the angry survivors of Israeli indiscriminate bombings and detentions of civilians.

The IDF is also embedded deeply in the civilian communities of Israel with mandatory conscription of all young adult men and women, plus mandatory reservist status until mid40s. Hundreds of the Oct 7th victims were IDF.

This is so very naieve.

HelenHen · 03/10/2024 10:20

Newbutoldfather · 03/10/2024 09:39

@HelenHen ,

‘They knew the Israeli leader is a bit calmer than his predecessor so they could push and push. Now Iran reacts to remind Israel that their actions have consequences. Israel’.

Are you seriously saying Israel shouldn’t have taken out Nasrallah, a terrorist leader who has both attacked Israel and the West?

And that the Iranian regime has every right to lob 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in response?

I must admit I find that astonishing.

Did I say anything about nasrallah? If you're going to respond to me, please respond to my actual words.

Daftasabroom · 03/10/2024 10:19

EasternStandard · 03/10/2024 09:25

pre 48 partition plans

Before Israel was created? What is that partition?

It was really was just a question. No body seems to be talking about what happens after this awful conflict.

@Icanthinkformyselfthanks used the word succumb, but what does that mean? It could mean very different things to different people.

@Newbutoldfather suggests we support Israel because they are a democracy? Why? We support many countries that are not democracies.

Is Israel really in an existential situation? No, I think that's massive hyperbole. Is Gaza in an existential situation? Yes. The West Bank? It looks too late TBH.

HelenHen · 03/10/2024 10:19

EasternStandard · 03/10/2024 09:34

I disagree we’ve been sleep walking into this Iranian threat.

That is who really would go against us

Sleepwalking? Is that how you explain bombing, bulldozing, killing tens of thousands, displacing millions of people?

I love how you're twisting the blame now to Iran, because they fired a few warning shots at military targets

ToBeDetermined · 03/10/2024 10:03

EasternStandard · 03/10/2024 09:25

pre 48 partition plans

Before Israel was created? What is that partition?

I think they are referring to the UN 1947 Partition plan that was accepted by the British on behalf of Palestinians and by the American Zionist Movement on behalf of all Jewish Palestinians.

All existing groups within the Mandate were not part of the discussion, the Balfour memo mentions deliberately excluding Palestinians from the negotiations at the UN to draw lines on the map for an ‘Arab State’ and a ‘Jewish state’ (these were their labels).

Unsurprisingly, neither affected party in the Palestine Mandate agreed with this partition being imposed on them.

Newbutoldfather · 03/10/2024 09:39

@HelenHen ,

‘They knew the Israeli leader is a bit calmer than his predecessor so they could push and push. Now Iran reacts to remind Israel that their actions have consequences. Israel’.

Are you seriously saying Israel shouldn’t have taken out Nasrallah, a terrorist leader who has both attacked Israel and the West?

And that the Iranian regime has every right to lob 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in response?

I must admit I find that astonishing.

EasternStandard · 03/10/2024 09:34

HelenHen · 03/10/2024 09:32

No, the actions of Israel have made us less safe. Nobody in the west was going to stop the rampage. They knew the Israeli leader is a bit calmer than his predecessor so they could push and push. Now Iran reacts to remind Israel that their actions have consequences. Israel are the ones showing that they will do whatever they want. Israel is the one that we need to be very afraid of.

I disagree we’ve been sleep walking into this Iranian threat.

That is who really would go against us

HelenHen · 03/10/2024 09:32

EasternStandard · 03/10/2024 08:16

Coming back to this as Iran nuclear ability is finally being picked up more in the press

Ultimately imo the indulgence in the West for anti Israel rhetoric for the last year or so has made us less safe

Including SM and on the street

No, the actions of Israel have made us less safe. Nobody in the west was going to stop the rampage. They knew the Israeli leader is a bit calmer than his predecessor so they could push and push. Now Iran reacts to remind Israel that their actions have consequences. Israel are the ones showing that they will do whatever they want. Israel is the one that we need to be very afraid of.

Newbutoldfather · 03/10/2024 09:30
  • getting nukes, not nuked!!
Newbutoldfather · 03/10/2024 09:29

@Daftasabroom ,

There are a couple of issues that you are conflating here.

Israel is rather worryingly moving from a real democracy to what I believe is classified as a flawed democracy. They are overdue elections and are starting to grant different citizens different rights. I would not deny that this is very concerning. I do think it is incumbent on world Jewry to protest against Israel’s openly racist members of parliament, treatment of POWs and the way settlers are behaving in the West Bank without much response.

However, although Israel is a flawed democracy, it is still a democracy and plenty of Israelis will openly support everything I have written above and can and do openly protest in the streets about it.

On the other hand, Israel’s enemies are not democracies in any sense and Hamas and Hezbollah are both terrorist groups who undemocratically are like cuckoos in Gaza and southern Lebanon, using and hiding behind the civilian population in a cowardly way, deliberately wanting Israel to kill civilians in order to get public opinion on their side. And both these groups are backed by Iran, a theocratic and misogynistic nation who are close to getting nuked.

So Israel firstly need to be supported in its existential struggle against a real axis of evil.

Once they are safe and secure, they need elections and to be pressured into a long term diplomatic two state solution where both Israelis and Palestinians can live in safety and have aspirations.

EasternStandard · 03/10/2024 09:25

Daftasabroom · 03/10/2024 09:16

This is a genuine question. What do you mean by succumb? Do you mean Israel will not cease its expansion into and settlement of the occupied territories? Do you mean Israel will not return to pre 67 or pre 48 partition plans? Do you mean will not cease to use massive force against Hamas and Hezbollah regardless of civilian casualties?

Succumb sounds like some kind of macho chest beating to me.

pre 48 partition plans

Before Israel was created? What is that partition?

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