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Conflict in the Middle East

To understand the escalation in Lebanon, we must confront what Israelis are thinking

381 replies

Gunnersforthecup · 28/09/2024 09:44

Rather good and well-informed article in the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/28/escalation-lebanon-israelis-benjamin-netanyahu-hamas-hezbollah

"It is almost certainly true that the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has political reasons for prolonging the conflict. But while a majority of Israelis would probably like a different prime minister, many don’t want to stop the war until they think that both Hamas and more particularly Hezbollah – which has tied its actions directly to Gaza – have been neutralised as serious threats.

And that is because behind both groups they see an Iran that is dedicated to their destruction...

This isn’t simply about the US and its western allies. This time the Gulf states – and most of all Saudi Arabia – are going to be key actors. The prize of normalisation with Israel has not disappeared. But the price has gone up. It will certainly include the effective containment of Iran and its allies – and an answer to real, not simply declarative, Palestinian statehood. And this time we need to make it stick. Otherwise the pain we are seeing now will not simply not go away. It will get a lot worse."

To understand the escalation in Lebanon, we must confront what Israelis are thinking | John Jenkins

Netanyahu has his own reasons for prolonging the conflict, but many Israelis still want to see Hamas and Hezbollah neutralised, says former British diplomat Sir John Jenkins

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/28/escalation-lebanon-israelis-benjamin-netanyahu-hamas-hezbollah

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ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:42

It’s simple maths really.

Israel
approximately 170,000 active-duty personnel (130,000 Ground Forces; 10,000 Naval; 30,000 Air Force) (2023)

Gaza Strip
the military wing of HAMAS has an estimated 20-25,000 fighters (2023)

Hamas cannot be an existential threat to Israel
Even before we start totting up who is using 1980s tech vs 2024 tech, and who has nukes.

YoYoYoYo12345 · 28/09/2024 17:38

Shall I help you @tobedetermined ?

Some reports show significant damage to hamas (35% reduced by May) and other reports show not as much as Israel hope for. Guerilla type groups hiding in within people are notoriously difficult to defeat.

No one really seems to know how many hamas members/fighters exist in gaza. There are embedded.

The success against Hezbollah is different. Successful targeting seems to be taking out key figures

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:35

YoYoYoYo12345 · 28/09/2024 17:29

😂 OK then I'll humour you. Kindly link the classified CIA document showing the current capacity of Hamas

Here you go. It’s not classified
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/gaza-strip/#introduction

YoYoYoYo12345 · 28/09/2024 17:29

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:25

CIA

😂 OK then I'll humour you. Kindly link the classified CIA document showing the current capacity of Hamas

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:25

EasternStandard · 28/09/2024 17:25

Is that what you meant @ToBeDetermined ?

No. No idea where they are getting that from.

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:25

YoYoYoYo12345 · 28/09/2024 17:24

Facts on the ground as provided by whom exactly

CIA

EasternStandard · 28/09/2024 17:25

erwachen · 28/09/2024 17:21

So, Hamas are terrorists and Hezbollah aren't? What's the difference?

Is that what you meant @ToBeDetermined ?

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:25

erwachen · 28/09/2024 17:21

So, Hamas are terrorists and Hezbollah aren't? What's the difference?

How did you conclude that?

YoYoYoYo12345 · 28/09/2024 17:24

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:23

No, I believe the facts on the ground as to their military capabilities.

Facts on the ground as provided by whom exactly

Humdingerydoo · 28/09/2024 17:24

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:21

Because these statements are likely referring to not recognising all the illegal per the ICJ Israeli settlements that are within the Palestinian state defined by the 1967 borders as legitimate parts of Israel.

That's quite an assumption to make. Is it based in any fact at all? Did you see the bit where it's from the river to the sea and also all the way down to Eilat that is considered Palestine in their eyes?

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:23

YoYoYoYo12345 · 28/09/2024 17:18

😂 really you believe Hamas, oh my gosh

No, I believe the facts on the ground as to their military capabilities.

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:21

Humdingerydoo · 28/09/2024 17:15

You're purposely ignoring the numerous times they mention in the charter that they won't recognise Israel and never will, and will continue "resistance and jihad". Why is that?

Because these statements are likely referring to not recognising all the illegal per the ICJ Israeli settlements that are within the Palestinian state defined by the 1967 borders as legitimate parts of Israel.

erwachen · 28/09/2024 17:21

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:12

They are recognising the 1967 borders between a Palestinian state and Israel.

Hamas considers the establishment of a fully sovereign and independent Palestinian state, with Jerusalem as its capital along the lines of the 4th of June 1967, with the return of the refugees and the displaced to their homes from which they were expelled, to be a formula of national consensus.

They reserve the right to resist occupation until such time that there is a state along the 1967 borders.

Ofc, the way they are doing it is through terrorism, which is illegal and what makes them terrorists.

So, Hamas are terrorists and Hezbollah aren't? What's the difference?

YoYoYoYo12345 · 28/09/2024 17:19

Humdingerydoo · 28/09/2024 17:15

You're purposely ignoring the numerous times they mention in the charter that they won't recognise Israel and never will, and will continue "resistance and jihad". Why is that?

Indeed. It contradicts the earlier claim they aren't a threat. I mean who would believe them!

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:18

StupidFarang · 28/09/2024 14:11

Israel withdrew out of Lebanon and got Hezbollah on their doorstep (in violation of security council resolution 1701 to end the 2nd Lebanon War)
Israel withdrew out of Gaza and got Hamas firing missiles and 7/10.

Not sure this precedent of withdrawal in the absence of a stong deal and ironclad security arrangements (like in Sinai) is quite the path to defending yourself. It won't lead to everyone sitting around the campfire and singing kumbaya together.

If Israel had not invaded Lebanon in the first place, then Hezbollah probably would not exist.

Israel never left Gaza without “ironclad security arrangements” because it built a massive wall around it, blockaded it by land, air and sea and controlled everyone going in or out, all food and supplies going in or our, all medicine going in or out, all water/power going in or out, all humanitarian money going in or out.

If we look at Gaza as a precedent, then it should tell us that withdrawal and then building a wall and doing a complete blockade is not how you gain security. It was too heavy handed.

YoYoYoYo12345 · 28/09/2024 17:18

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:02

No. My comment reflects current Hamas agreements which state that they are not currently an existential threat to the State of Israel because they have agreed to the 1967 borders between Israel and a Palestinian State.

😂 really you believe Hamas, oh my gosh

Humdingerydoo · 28/09/2024 17:15

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:12

They are recognising the 1967 borders between a Palestinian state and Israel.

Hamas considers the establishment of a fully sovereign and independent Palestinian state, with Jerusalem as its capital along the lines of the 4th of June 1967, with the return of the refugees and the displaced to their homes from which they were expelled, to be a formula of national consensus.

They reserve the right to resist occupation until such time that there is a state along the 1967 borders.

Ofc, the way they are doing it is through terrorism, which is illegal and what makes them terrorists.

You're purposely ignoring the numerous times they mention in the charter that they won't recognise Israel and never will, and will continue "resistance and jihad". Why is that?

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:12

Humdingerydoo · 28/09/2024 12:32

@ToBeDetermined

www.middleeasteye.net/news/hamas-2017-document-full

"Palestine, which extends from the River Jordan in the east to the Mediterranean in the west and from Ras al-Naqurah in the north to Umm al-Rashrash in the south, is an integral territorial unit. It is the land and the home of the Palestinian people. The expulsion and banishment of the Palestinian people from their land and the establishment of the Zionist entity therein do not annul the right of the Palestinian people to their entire land and do not entrench any rights therein for the usurping Zionist entity."

"Hamas believes that no part of the land of Palestine shall be compromised or conceded, irrespective of the causes, the circumstances and the pressures and no matter how long the occupation lasts. Hamas rejects any alternative to the full and complete liberation of Palestine, from the river to the sea. However, without compromising its rejection of the Zionist entity and without relinquishing any Palestinian rights, Hamas considers the establishment of a fully sovereign and independent Palestinian state, with Jerusalem as its capital along the lines of the 4th of June 1967, with the return of the refugees and the displaced to their homes from which they were expelled, to be a formula of national consensus."

"There shall be no recognition of the legitimacy of the Zionist entity"

"Hamas stresses that transgression against the Palestinian people, usurping their land and banishing them from their homeland cannot be called peace. Any settlements reached on this basis will not lead to peace. Resistance and jihad for the liberation of Palestine will remain a legitimate right, a duty and an honour for all the sons and daughters of our people and our Ummah."

Etc etc etc

It doesn't sound like they're recognising Israel though, does it? Even their newest charter says Israel is Palestine 🤦🏻‍♀️ They reserve the right for "resistance and jihad". Let's not pretend it's a peaceful two state solution they're after.

They are recognising the 1967 borders between a Palestinian state and Israel.

Hamas considers the establishment of a fully sovereign and independent Palestinian state, with Jerusalem as its capital along the lines of the 4th of June 1967, with the return of the refugees and the displaced to their homes from which they were expelled, to be a formula of national consensus.

They reserve the right to resist occupation until such time that there is a state along the 1967 borders.

Ofc, the way they are doing it is through terrorism, which is illegal and what makes them terrorists.

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:09

blackcherryconserve · 28/09/2024 12:29

In May 2017 Palestinian political and military organization Hamas unveiled A Document of General Principles and Policies (وثيقة المبادئ والسياسات العامة لحركة حماس), also referred to as the new or revised Hamas charter. It accepted the idea of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, i.e. comprising the West Bank and Gaza strip only,[3] on the condition that also the Palestinian refugees were allowed to return to their homes,[4] if it is clear this is the consensus of the Palestinians[5] ("a formula of national consensus"[6]); but at the same time this document strove for the "complete liberation of Palestine, from the river to the sea",[2][6] and did not explicitly recognize Israel.[3] The new charter holds that armed resistance against an occupying power is justified under international law.[1][7]

The 'complete liberation of Palestine' equals the elimination of Israel as a Jewish state.
What else do you think 'From the River (Jordan) to the (Mediterranean) Sea' chant means? (Rhetorical question)

Edited

No, the ‘complete liberation of Palestine’ refers back to a Palestinian State based on the 1967 borders.

If you look at a map, the West Bank is on the West Bank of the River Jordan (from the river) and Gaza is on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea (to the sea). A Palestinian state using the 1967 borders would indeed stretch “from the river to the sea” as would their neighbouring state of Israel.

For the past thirty years, Palestinians have not been allowed to move between the West Bank and Gaza due to the setup of IDF military check points, barrier fences and walls, and complex permit systems based on their residency cards. That is why freedom to move about from the river to the sea within their own state is an important goal.

That’s what “from the river to the sea” means in the Likud charter for Israel too.

The geography is such that both states can be free from the river to the sea.

Humdingerydoo · 28/09/2024 17:06

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:02

No. My comment reflects current Hamas agreements which state that they are not currently an existential threat to the State of Israel because they have agreed to the 1967 borders between Israel and a Palestinian State.

You sound like someone who might be interested in buying a bridge I have up for sale. Special offer, just for you!

ToBeDetermined · 28/09/2024 17:02

erwachen · 28/09/2024 13:20

So according to you, Hezbollah are not terrorists and Hamas are not antisemitic. Are Hamas also not terrorists?

No. My comment reflects current Hamas agreements which state that they are not currently an existential threat to the State of Israel because they have agreed to the 1967 borders between Israel and a Palestinian State.

Humdingerydoo · 28/09/2024 17:01

Auvergne63 · 28/09/2024 16:54

Maybe you didn't say it, but your post implied it.
The fact that you appear to dismiss my reaction to your post by accusing me of
"blindly agreeing with previous posters" is also telling.

I didn't imply that at all. In fact, I've said a few times that I think Israel should have done better. So I didn't imply it, that's just something you've decided I've implied despite evidence to the contrary.

What is it telling of? Feel free to point out examples of my supposed disturbing rhetoric, alternatively explain what exactly you agreed with the poster on?

batt3nb3rg · 28/09/2024 17:01

Dulra · 28/09/2024 16:56

I don't think they're twisting anything they are using language they feel is appropriate for what's happening, disagreeing with that is fine but suggesting they are living on another planet and twisting words is a poor way to try and make an argument.

They are using language that has a directly opposite meaning than what they are saying in order to prevent a false narrative and/or be inflammatory, which is textbook "twisting things".

Dulra · 28/09/2024 16:56

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

I don't think they're twisting anything they are using language they feel is appropriate for what's happening, disagreeing with that is fine but suggesting they are living on another planet and twisting words is a poor way to try and make an argument.