"You've lots of quasi legal/academic arguments to show those of us lesser mortals who just happen to have seen starvation and genocide in real life, the ignorant souls from the world of medicine and science. Your threads don’t conceal your hawkish attitude and alignment with Israel and the British establishment. I think your arguments are good because of your debating skills and depth of knowledge, but this doesn’t give you a monopoly on the truth."
I suggest putting your passive aggressive attitude to one side and try to be as objective as possible. That'd be a good start.
My threads?
IIRC, I only have a couple of threads - one in CITME from months ago regarding Hezbollah in Lebanon from an academic perspective and one on learning a foreign language (obv. not in CITME).
Also, let's dispense with the Strawman Argument Fallacy, shall we? I never claimed to have a monopoly on the truth. 🤦♂️
Fortunately, I'm not actually attempting to conceal anything here. It's very clear I'm aligned with the Western sphere of influence and dead set against Iran's axis with Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas as well as militias in Iraq and Syria.
I should hope that isn't a problem.
"You posted a picture of Gerry Adams, he of the armolite and ballot box."
I did, aye, mocking Adams. And? Pretty clear PSF/PIRA have & maintain links with Hamas et al.
By the way, the armalite & the ballot box idea came from Danny Morrison. Not Adams who is more Provo politically minded as opposed to Provo militarily minded.
"You said on another thread that the GFA and resulting peace was the result of the British military’s effective defeat of the PIRA as you call them. This was clearly not the case- Sinn Féin made the move further into the political arena and are currently most successful party in NI."
I did and that is entirely correct. A terrorist organisation doesn’t give up terrorism unless the cost is too high. PIRA was infiltrated from the top down, security forces were able to intercept most operations, PIRAs most dangerous cell was wiped out in 1987 and many of their members were in prison. Additionally, the other drawback of their terrorist cell structure from 1977 onwards was their numbers were small and average age was significantly higher. By the dawn of the 1990s, PIRAs average age during this period was 40 or so compared with 20 in their initial insurgency phase 1970-74. A lower average age brings indiscipline in the ranks as PSF/PIRA noted in documents seized in 1977, but a higher average age increases the likelihood of death plus Father Time is not on their side. If PIRA was strong and capable of escalating things, it wouldn't have agreed to the conditions laid down by the Sovereign Power in 1998, much less decommissioned weapons. Indeed, PSF/PIRA did not achieve any of their long held key core demands in the Belfast Agreement. But the UK Government got theirs in it.
Is this also the point where I put down the words of significant PIRA members once again or something?
Oh, and Provisional Sinn Féin has barely gained on their last electoral showing. A less than 2% increase! 🤦♂️
Nationalism isn't the majority at Stormont either. As for PSF as FM, that's what political Unionist division gets you, but isn't an actual win for PSF in real terms.
"I’m not a “sneaking begrudger” or a Sinn Féin supporter, but I think that the killing of Haniyeh could be a disaster for the hostages."
A possibility, yes. But one that makes a lot of assumptions about what Hamas is prepared to do with those remaining hostages. Indeed, Hamas refuses to indicate whether they're alive or dead, including the ratio. An important omission. You can't take a group like this at face value. We already know they murdered multiple hostages months ago and hid them including in Rafah.
"Politics is about dialogue. Freeing hostages needs dialogue. Taking out a terrorist who is political leader with clout when you’re trying to do a hostage deal is a mistake, even if it garners support political support for Netanyahu.Negotiations with someone who isn’t a terrorist aren’t going to get any living hostages back."
Up to a point, I can agree. But the mistake you're making there is assuming it was Haniyeh who held the significant clout. It wasn't.
Yahya Sinwar is the one with the real clout, especially as he's the one with the hostages within Gaza. Haniyeh was always limited given he had very few cards to play being leader of the political arm of Hamas. This setup was not the same as that of PSF/PIRA where the Adams/McGuinness faction manoeuvred into gaining control of the Provisional Republican Movement both politically and militarily from circa 1981 onwards, i.e., Northern Command booted Southern Command over the border and took charge of all Provo affairs.
The kind of combined leadership PSF/PIRA had then suits a small terrorist group, but also has its drawbacks. But a consolidated political and military leadership does not suit what Hamas really is - a terror army. Indeed, the size of Hamas means a parallel military and political leadership structure is more secure than a single consolidated one. Whoever controls the military side has the upper hand until such time as that group's terrorist military activity makes a strategic defeat very apparent. Then, and only then, does the political leadership gain the upper hand.
So, Sinwar in Gaza is the real focus if you want to achieve your remaining war aim having achieved the others. It may well be that Sinwar will be prepared to do a hostage deal once the psychological pressure is too much for him. He'll have heard about the various eliminations and may want to save his own skin for certain terms.
Either that or he's more than happy to murder them in a last act of psychological terror on Israel and her people. The last I always think is more likely - Sinwar is not really pragmatic, imo.
"Taking out these older guys does not weaken Hamas-it just creates a space for younger less skilled ones to move into their places. Mossad are very successful- they regularly take out key figures in Hamas and the organisation is set up to deal with this problem. Hamas will be set back for a few critical weeks ( from the point of view of the hostages and those trying to avert a further humanitarian disaster ) but after that business as usual, probably with a younger less skilled and more extreme replacement."
Under "normal" conditions of past conflict with Hamas, you are correct. Assassinations are a short term tactical option, but not a long term strategic one. Problem for Hamas is numbers plus supporting terrorist infrastructure are more limited now than before plus the psychological toll of tunnel warfare is greater than before. We've got indications there is some degree of disunity within Hamas which is how the IDF had enough intel to pull off the hostage rescue a while back. Some indication of local Gazan population dissent towards Hamas too. Under these conditions, assassinations have a stronger negative effect on a terrorist group.
Replacements whilst usually younger are not only less skilled, but more impulsive and less psychologically resilient. A terrorist organisation is only as dangerous as its skill set. A small highly skilled one can be much more dangerous than a larger less skilled one.
It's also not axiomatic that replacements are more extreme. That's an assumption you've made yourself.
Hamas is not set up to deal with the problem it currently faces and this will become clearer over the next few months. Indeed, the Philadelphi Corridor was very important to Hamas, but they've lost that. Now, we can see the size of the tunnels going into Egypt. Iran's axis will try to save what remains of Hamas from the next few days on by hoping to tie the IDF against the proverbial ropes long enough for Hamas to recover in some manner. With the military defensive support that's coming for Israel, its not likely to help Hamas in the long run.