I'm afraid that peace is out of the window 😟for a very long time.
Iran and Lebanon are not speaking to anyone sent from the West.
Less palatable to whom though and what power do they have to speak anymore? The West who've turned their eyes away and provided cover and weapons whilst the Israeli Government broke countless International Laws?
From listening to diplomats, Generals and people actually in the region they are communicating that the whole calculation has changed. This is a geopolitical fight now. Do you know that after Israel bombed Iran's embassy in Syria in April and Iranians through intermediaries offered not to respond if there was a ceasefire in Gaza and the Americans refused this?
Nasrallah in his speech a couple of days ago stated that Gaza must not fall, otherwise next it will be the West Bank, then Lebanon and Syria aka the Greater Israel. The feeling appears to be that America and by extension are agreement incapable and continually break promises so if Iran's response triggers a response from Israel that leads to War, Iran has said so be it.
Shoigu, ex Russian Defence minister was in Iran 2 days ago which is significant as Putin earlier this year said: "We will arm your enemies just like you arm the enemies of Russia.” in response to the arming of Ukraine.
The assassination of Haniyeh 2 weeks after the Palestinian factions agreed to work together is also disrespectful to China who spent years trying to broker the deal. So all the pieces are lining up and appointing Sinwar was a deliberate move most probably made with the agreement with the Big Players:
THREAD: The unanimous selection of Yehya Sinwar as Hamas' new political leader should be viewed within the context of Iran and Hizbullah's imminent retaliation. While this move represents Hamas' response to Israel's assassination of the more pragmatic Haniyeh, it more significantly marks a political escalation that mirrors the expected military escalation from its allies. 1/
Given that Sinwar represents the most radical wing within Hamas, and Israel's obsession with eliminating him, the movement is not just signalling a harder line in the cease-fire talks vis-a-vis Israel, the US and Arab mediators. This decision also broadcasts an uncompromising and resolute message for the "day after" political landscape. 2/
This in turn implies that Hamas has secured commitments from its partners guaranteeing ongoing and steadfast military backing. This support is all the more meaningful considering the very real possibility of a worst case scenario unfolding—where Israel exploits Iran and Hizbullah's retaliatory actions as a justification for initiating all out war against the entire Axis.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1821265163808305635.html?utm_campaign=topunroll