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Conflict in the Middle East

The Lancet publish article estimating 186,000 death toll in Gaza

216 replies

AhNowTed · 08/07/2024 07:01

The Lancet has just published this article "conservatively" estimating that the death toll in the Gaza genocide could be 186,000 people or more. That's 8% of the population, obliterated.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext

OP posts:
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Auvergne63 · 09/07/2024 16:13

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Auvergne63 · 09/07/2024 16:08

keenforhelp · 09/07/2024 13:51

Not at all. Perfectly happy to discuss whether a genocide is happening on the appropriate thread and at the moment, a genocide is your opinion unsupported yet by any official bodies and certainly not recognised as such in the UK or the USA.

This thread is about apparently 186000 Gazans being killed.

They haven't.

I repeat, it really is not on to post thread titles with vastly misleading ideas.

I wasn't aware that you had the recognised qualifications, rigorous scientific and empiric methods to be able to offer a balanced and proven counter argument to "these vastly misleading ideas" from the Lancet.
I am all ears.

AhNowTed · 09/07/2024 16:05

Other reports from Action on Armed Violence

US has sent Israel 14,000 two-thousand-pound bombs since October
According to Reuters, since October 7, the U.S. has sent over 14,000 2,000-pound bombs, 6,500 500-pound bombs, 3,000 Hellfire missiles, 1,000 bunker-buster bombs, and 2,600 small-diameter bombs, among other munitions.

https://aoav.org.uk/2024/us-has-sent-israel-14000-two-thousand-pound-bombs-since-october/

Occupied Palestinian Territories: AOAV explosive violence data on harm to civilians
In the Occupied Palestinian Territories, AOAV showed that English-language media underreports the numbers of casualties caused by incidents of explosive weapons use, capturing only a third of the actual civilian deaths from specific explosive incidents in Gaza.

https://aoav.org.uk/2024/opt-casualty-monitor/

Gaza’s invisible massacre: aid workers killed in record numbers
The vast majority of humanitarians killed are national staff, but as in most conflicts, little is heard about them.

https://aoav.org.uk/2024/gazas-invisible-massacre-aid-workers-killed-in-record-numbers/

US has sent Israel 14,000 two-thousand-pound bombs since October - AOAV

ince the onset of the Gaza conflict on October 7, the United States has supplied Israel with over 14,000 2,000-pound bombs and thousands of other munitions, showcasing significant military support despite international calls for restraint.

https://aoav.org.uk/2024/us-has-sent-israel-14000-two-thousand-pound-bombs-since-october

OP posts:
Buddysbunda · 09/07/2024 15:45

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I really don't think it is. You yourself are posting a link to what appears to be an opinion piece, nothing more than speculative fiction. You seem to think that that is 'worth' something, you have posted it twice now. Why are you not dismissive of the opinion piece you keep posting, why are you giving that opinion piece any weight at all? You are clearly grossly biased and very dismissive of the very real loss of 10s of 1000s of lives.

keenforhelp · 09/07/2024 15:45

anotherlevel · 09/07/2024 15:44

@keenforhelp
"No point in discussing it as it is not real."

So why are you on this thread discussing it then? If there was no point, there'd be no need to comment.

I have answered that many times. I am off for a while but will be back later.

anotherlevel · 09/07/2024 15:44

@keenforhelp
"No point in discussing it as it is not real."

So why are you on this thread discussing it then? If there was no point, there'd be no need to comment.

keenforhelp · 09/07/2024 15:41

EasterIssland · 09/07/2024 15:39

will contest grossly misleading thread titles and links that do not stand up to scrutiny in any way whatsoever

If it wasn’t from the fact that there are several other threads (some of which you’re the op) where the title does not stand up to scrutiny then I’d trust you. However , I feel you’re trying to censor some information that it’s been provided because you’re not happy with the image it’s portraying of IDF and the Israeli government.

No, @EasterIssland I am not.

There is much to criticise from Netanyahu and the IDF and Govt.

EasterIssland · 09/07/2024 15:39

keenforhelp · 09/07/2024 15:31

I really do not dismiss the tragic unfolding of events in Gaza as "nothing" however, I will contest grossly misleading thread titles and links that do not stand up to scrutiny in any way whatsoever - especially proclaiming close to 200k perishing in this conflict. That is not acceptable.

My link to the JC - here again - discusses the article with ideas with which I concur strongly.

https://www.thejc.com/news/israel/did-the-lancet-really-estimate-the-gaza-death-toll-at-186-000-tp50gw2f

Edited

will contest grossly misleading thread titles and links that do not stand up to scrutiny in any way whatsoever

If it wasn’t from the fact that there are several other threads (some of which you’re the op) where the title does not stand up to scrutiny then I’d trust you. However , I feel you’re trying to censor some information that it’s been provided because you’re not happy with the image it’s portraying of IDF and the Israeli government.

keenforhelp · 09/07/2024 15:39

AhNowTed · 09/07/2024 15:37

Have you nothing to say about deaths due to traumatic injury, complications, unexploded bombs, lack of medication, malnutrition, infectious disease, poor sanitation, maternal/neonatal/stillbirth...

I have said that I am shocked at the deaths of innocents and the events unfolding in Gaza. However, I will not comment further on this thread as it is apparently about 186000 dead in Gaza already. I am here to contest that as I have said.

I would attempt to discuss on other threads but do not wish to at this time. I will not elaborate upon my reasons.

Scirocco · 09/07/2024 15:39

Buddysbunda · 09/07/2024 15:32

The fact that you would call a thread about 1000s of Palestinian deaths 'much ado about nothing' is really shocking. A little bit of respect for the enormous loss of life shouldn't be too much to ask for.

And there is, sadly, the reality of how many people view Palestinian lives and how many people view the lives of populations they don't like or see as being too 'other'. The lives of innocent people are considered to lack value because of their ethnicity, faith or passport. And so war continues.

AhNowTed · 09/07/2024 15:37

Have you nothing to say about deaths due to traumatic injury, complications, unexploded bombs, lack of medication, malnutrition, infectious disease, poor sanitation, maternal/neonatal/stillbirth...

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keenforhelp · 09/07/2024 15:35

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Buddysbunda · 09/07/2024 15:32

keenforhelp · 09/07/2024 15:21

Succinct summary there @DownNative and this thread really is a much ado about nothing that the great Bard himself would have been proud of scripting.

Edited

The fact that you would call a thread about 1000s of Palestinian deaths 'much ado about nothing' is really shocking. A little bit of respect for the enormous loss of life shouldn't be too much to ask for.

keenforhelp · 09/07/2024 15:31

Dulra · 09/07/2024 15:28

this thread really is a much ado about nothing

In your opinion.
Many of us however do not lightly dismiss as nothing what these contributors are estimating and are very concerned about the death toll and suffering they are warning about. If you feel it is nothing move on and let those that would like to discuss the article to it.

I really do not dismiss the tragic unfolding of events in Gaza as "nothing" however, I will contest grossly misleading thread titles and links that do not stand up to scrutiny in any way whatsoever - especially proclaiming close to 200k perishing in this conflict. That is not acceptable.

My link to the JC - here again - discusses the article with ideas with which I concur strongly.

https://www.thejc.com/news/israel/did-the-lancet-really-estimate-the-gaza-death-toll-at-186-000-tp50gw2f

Dulra · 09/07/2024 15:28

keenforhelp · 09/07/2024 15:21

Succinct summary there @DownNative and this thread really is a much ado about nothing that the great Bard himself would have been proud of scripting.

Edited

this thread really is a much ado about nothing

In your opinion.
Many of us however do not lightly dismiss as nothing what these contributors are estimating and are very concerned about the death toll and suffering they are warning about. If you feel it is nothing move on and let those that would like to discuss the article to it.

keenforhelp · 09/07/2024 15:21

DownNative · 09/07/2024 15:14

Why would The Lancet remove a letter they are very clear is simply "our reader's reflections"?

When the content of said letter is NOT the view of The Lancet itself?

When the letter is clearly NOT a study by The Lancet?

Therefore, the Appeal To Authority Fallacy in this thread vis a vis The Lancet falls down immediately.

Answers on a postcard as they say. 🤷‍♂️

Succinct summary there @DownNative and this thread really is a much ado about nothing that the great Bard himself would have been proud of scripting.

keenforhelp · 09/07/2024 15:20

AhNowTed · 09/07/2024 15:13

I don't see the need to change the title.

The Lancet, as I've explained, call all their contributions "articles" throughout their website, so it wasn't intentional and you can take it up with them.

Further the title clearly says "estimating" and nowhere does it claim the death toll is 186K today.

Upon reading, the reader quickly establishes the number includes indirect deaths from the ongoing results of this deadly conflict.

Action on Armed Violence, a London-based charity conducting research on the impact of armed violence, produced a similar report back in February.

https://aoav.org.uk/2024/leading-experts-foresee-up-to-74290-excess-deaths-in-gaza/

Crisis in Gaza: Scenario-based Health Impact Projections

Here is the pdf:

https://aoav.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/gaza_projections_report.pdf

The projections – outlined in their report Crisis in Gaza: Scenario-Based Health Impact Projections – underscore the dual threats of infectious diseases and traumatic injuries as the primary causes of these excess deaths.
As the report states: “The projections are not predictions of what will happen in Gaza but provide a range of projections of what could happen under three distinct scenarios: 1) an immediate permanent ceasefire; 2) status quo (a continuation of conditions experienced from October 2023 till mid-January); and 3) a further escalation of the conflict.”

It's safe to assume we are in "further escalation of the conflict" territory now.

And for those enquiring about my whereabouts, sadly I have a full time job.

Your thread title and link has been proven to frankly be fiction as it stands so it really does not matter whether or not you change the thread title.

And not sure why you having a full time job is relevant - I don't think anybody was actually asking whether you do or not. Or whether this matters a jot to them.

DownNative · 09/07/2024 15:14

EasterIssland · 09/07/2024 15:09

They might not be peer reviewed but if it caused as much controversy as this one has created and they didn’t agree with it or were happy with what is written in there I’m sure they’d quietly remove it.

also, what’s wrong with it ? This letter is saying if things don’t change in Gaza we could have up to 186k deaths. Is the numbers what is wrong? Would 100k make it better ? 400k?

people are not only dying in Gaza because Israel is killing them directky. They’re also dying because of Israel’s actions in Gaza. This has to stop for people to continue dying and that’s what the writers in lancet are saying

Edited

Why would The Lancet remove a letter they are very clear is simply "our reader's reflections"?

When the content of said letter is NOT the view of The Lancet itself?

When the letter is clearly NOT a study by The Lancet?

Therefore, the Appeal To Authority Fallacy in this thread vis a vis The Lancet falls down immediately.

Answers on a postcard as they say. 🤷‍♂️

EasterIssland · 09/07/2024 15:14

Thanks @AhNowTed

AhNowTed · 09/07/2024 15:13

I don't see the need to change the title.

The Lancet, as I've explained, call all their contributions "articles" throughout their website, so it wasn't intentional and you can take it up with them.

Further the title clearly says "estimating" and nowhere does it claim the death toll is 186K today.

Upon reading, the reader quickly establishes the number includes indirect deaths from the ongoing results of this deadly conflict.

Action on Armed Violence, a London-based charity conducting research on the impact of armed violence, produced a similar report back in February.

https://aoav.org.uk/2024/leading-experts-foresee-up-to-74290-excess-deaths-in-gaza/

Crisis in Gaza: Scenario-based Health Impact Projections

Here is the pdf:

https://aoav.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/gaza_projections_report.pdf

The projections – outlined in their report Crisis in Gaza: Scenario-Based Health Impact Projections – underscore the dual threats of infectious diseases and traumatic injuries as the primary causes of these excess deaths.
As the report states: “The projections are not predictions of what will happen in Gaza but provide a range of projections of what could happen under three distinct scenarios: 1) an immediate permanent ceasefire; 2) status quo (a continuation of conditions experienced from October 2023 till mid-January); and 3) a further escalation of the conflict.”

It's safe to assume we are in "further escalation of the conflict" territory now.

And for those enquiring about my whereabouts, sadly I have a full time job.

Leading experts foresee up to 74,290 excess deaths in Gaza - AOAV

The report by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Johns Hopkins University projects up to 74,290 excess deaths in Gaza under varying scenarios, emphasizing the critical need for improved healthcare, sanitation, and nutrition amid the...

https://aoav.org.uk/2024/leading-experts-foresee-up-to-74290-excess-deaths-in-gaza

OP posts:
keenforhelp · 09/07/2024 15:10

DownNative · 09/07/2024 15:04

Letters published in The Lancet don't have to meet standards remotely close to articles which they publish.

Letters are not peer reviewed. These are simply "our reader's reflections".

That's interesting @DownNative .

Thank you for posting this. So really, these letters are simply unscientific, non-peer reviewed, not attributable to The Lancet, speculative missives.

EasterIssland · 09/07/2024 15:09

DownNative · 09/07/2024 15:04

Letters published in The Lancet don't have to meet standards remotely close to articles which they publish.

Letters are not peer reviewed. These are simply "our reader's reflections".

They might not be peer reviewed but if it caused as much controversy as this one has created and they didn’t agree with it or were happy with what is written in there I’m sure they’d quietly remove it.

also, what’s wrong with it ? This letter is saying if things don’t change in Gaza we could have up to 186k deaths. Is the numbers what is wrong? Would 100k make it better ? 400k?

people are not only dying in Gaza because Israel is killing them directky. They’re also dying because of Israel’s actions in Gaza. This has to stop for people to continue dying and that’s what the writers in lancet are saying

Buddysbunda · 09/07/2024 15:06

keenforhelp · 09/07/2024 14:47

From the Jewish Chronicle:

https://www.thejc.com/news/israel/did-the-lancet-really-estimate-the-gaza-death-toll-at-186-000-tp50gw2f

"Did the Lancet really estimate the Gaza death toll at 186,000?
The figure was shared by MPs and UN officials, but is purely speculative and not a peer-reviewed study"
"Last week, the Lancet, a well-respected British medical journal, published a letter from three academics – Rasha Khatib, Martin McKee, and Salim Yusuf – discussing the death toll in Gaza.
The letter, which is not peer-reviewed, suggests that, if the death toll in Gaza is 37 396, then it is “not implausible” to estimate that up to 186 000 deaths could be attributed to the war at some point in the future.
Already, the figure has taken on a life of its own. Zarah Sultana, writing on X, said “The Lancet - the most prestigious medical journal in the world - conservatively estimates that the death toll in Gaza could be 186,000 or more. That’s 8% of the population”. The “Gaza Genocide” entry on Wikipedia already cites the figure.
A former UN official also shared that “1 in every 12 Gaza inhabitants [have been] killed in the last 9 months of genocide”.
But what does the figure actually reference? The letter, which is speculative, and not a peer-reviewed article, makes the estimate that up to 186,000 deaths could be attributable to the current conflict due to “indirect health implications”.
This figure was decided by multiplying the current death toll, as reported by the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry, by five. The forward-looking estimate does not suggest that 186,000 have been killed in the 9 months of war so far.
The death toll in Gaza has long been difficult to report accurately. This is not unusual in wartime, but worsened by the specific situation in Gaza. Relying on the Gaza health ministry, figures are often revised.
The Hamas health ministry reports deaths recorded in hospitals, deaths reported by family members, and deaths from “reliable media reports”.
The letter sent to the Lancet was signed by Radha Khatib, Martin McKee, and Salim Yusuf. Khatib – the lead signatory – works at Birzeit University, near Ramallah, which has been outspoken on the war in Gaza. On October 15, Birzet called for international academic instituions to “take concrete action to stop the genocidal war on the Palestinian people and to end Israeli settler colonialism”.
Khatib has also previously shared Anti-Israel posts on social media. During the 2014 war in Gaza, she shared an article which stated there are “no ‘Both Sides’”. She also posted: “Palestinian violence is the inevitable response to… occupation and apartheid-like inequality. Violence therefore will only end when the occupation and Israeli apartheid end”.
Hillel Neuer, Executive Director of United Nations Watch, criticised the validity of the letter in the Lancet. “Nowhere does the lancet say this amount ‘were killed in the last 9 months,’” he shared on social media.
"

Couldn't have put this better myself.

I hope this puts this to bed now.

Why would an article with other people's opinion put anything to bed? What makes the option of the people in the article you linked more credible than the people who wrote into the lancet?

DownNative · 09/07/2024 15:04

Letters published in The Lancet don't have to meet standards remotely close to articles which they publish.

Letters are not peer reviewed. These are simply "our reader's reflections".

The Lancet publish article estimating 186,000 death toll in Gaza
keenforhelp · 09/07/2024 14:57

EasterIssland · 09/07/2024 14:40

Is there a reason why you’ve not opened that thread if you’re so keen on it ? Why do you expect (want) others to do it and not yourself?

Up to you.