War Hezbollah and Israel

Don't think it'll stop them, they dont over think it. They've had flags of hezbollah at demonstrations and calls of support for Houthis.

I wonder what the impact of the war in Lebanon is going to be in terms of pro Paelstinian protest. Are the protests going to morph into anti Israel protests and look to add. Lebanon in terms of sloganeering? One thing may be is that given Hezbollahs aid of Assad and the celebrations in Idlib coupled with scenes of Iranians celebrating in front of the Israeli embassy waving 'I stand with Israel' placards people in this country may see the situation in the middle East is a complex one.

It would be ironic if they hit the dome of the rock with their missiles....

It really does look like Iran can only helplessly look on while it's ally in Lebanon.is dismembered. I think one thing I think is widely accepted is that this shock and awe from the Israelis, the pagers, the widespread air strikes, now the destruction of Hizbollah's leader and it's senior command, all in an incredibly short time frame.

I don't know if you can say this is escalation currently because it looks likes Hizbollah and Iran are on no position to escalate. You can say that the politics of niddle east are changing.

One thing I am now starting to suspect was that the proposed peace plan unintentionally or intentionally has been used as cover for this series of strikes. The coordination of BNs speech to the UN, the proximity to the anniversary of October 7th are all connected.

Syrians have been celebrating since yesterday.

Yeah, I can't shake the feeling of deja vu remembering when George W. Bush stood in front of a banner saying "Misson Accomplished" soon after the invasion of Iraq in 2003. America is still in Iraq today and 6 to 8 trillion dollars poorer from wars in the region.
Interesting times ahead, there are no rules now and the next leader may chose not to target mostly military assets.

Let's hope with more terrorists gone more moderate voices feel brave enough to speak out in Lebanon.

I think that the medial in general may have overestimated Hezbollah and a swift Israeli victory would perhaps (?) mean a ceasfire. If Iran does not respond now it really is a busted flush and the Islamist militias in the region will lose a huge amount of morale and I wonder if their infrastructure will be teminally broken.

Being objective we can't deny this actually is a military success for Israel. The US are going to be missed though as Antony Blinken is cleaning egg off his face after sponsoring cease fire talks and it was obvious BNs visit to the UN was a ruse.

Also there is a knock on effect with Hamas and surely word must filter through about what is happening in Lebanon and surely there morale must be impacted as well.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c981g8mrl8lt

Breaking: Some more now on the IDF's statement that the leader of Hezbollah has been killed.

In the statement, it says that other senior members of the Iran-backed group were killed in addition to Hassan Nasrallah - including the commander of Hezbollah's southern front.

The IDF says that fighter jets conducted a "targeted strike" on the central headquarters of Hezbollah, which it says were located "underground embedded under a residential building in the area of Dahieh in Beirut".

It adds that the strike was conducted while the group's "senior chain of command" was operating from the suburb of Dahieh in southern Beirut - a stronghold of the armed group.

As a reminder, we've not yet had a comment through from Hezbollah.

--------

It would be great if, with this apparent success, Israel could consider this is something of a win and come to an agreement on a ceasefire.

Blue sky thinking maybe, but here's hoping.

Why has Hezbollah's repose been muted given the alleged immense arsenal of weapons they have? Is the strategy to just wait it out?

Is Iran going to be forced to do something or lose credibility as a regional power?

A journalist in South Lebanon that i listened to last night (as bombs were going off) described the structure of Hezbollah. As an organisation they are like the Hydra, cut off one head (Nasrallah) and three grow back.

Their leaders train multiple replacements and rotate carrying out the role to learn.
If Nasrallah is dead, then his replacement will just carry on, with the added benefit that the IDF does not have years of intelligence on this replacement.

They are currently bombing Israel right now, this is the Red alert map.

Whatever has happened the region is on the path to war.

I just think the Hezbollah war may finish soon actually as they are not relishing to what most would see as an all our assault by Israel including targeting their leader. It may be Hezbollah stop firing rockets for their own survival and go for deep cover for a couple of years to rebuild. Iran hasn't made any military response and it does feel like Hezbollah have been pushed under the bus to a large extent.

I don't think Lebanon is going to be the quagmire of Gaza and this war may be a brief one. I think Israel so sense a victory, perhaps an unexpected one, here.

Has the Hezbollah leader been killed? I think, God willing, that this would be a major victory for Israel as Hezbollah and been put on the back foot. It seems increasingly weak and there is conjecture that Israel may have chosen the right path in striking now and Hezbollah may not use its purported arsenal of rockets.

I would think that morale amongst Hezbollah must rock bottom at the moment and I wonder how near as an organisation they are close to dissolving?

Agree it seems to have got horribly worse, again, tonight, what a mess.

It feels very hopeless tonight. I know it's a test, we have to have faith. We just see to the horizon, but Allah is All-knowing. There will be a reason, a meaning, but tonight... tonight is hard.

Oh no, it is so scary, the bbc news reporter was recording when a big airstrike took place behind them, very close to a school where the displaced from the south were seeking refuge. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like a truce is on the cards anymore.

I have friends with family in Lebanon. It's awful, they're so scared for them.

Entire buildings have just been flattened in Lebanon. The destruction is terrible, does anyone have family there? I don't know anyone there but it looks really bad.

Thanks for that. I have a subscription to Haarezt so don't see the paywall.