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Conflict in the Middle East

Is Israel on its way to being a "Failed State?"

345 replies

TooBigForMyBoots · 03/04/2024 01:01

Netanyahu is destroying Gaza.

The IDF is committing war crimes.
Netanyahu's government has angered, pissed off and disappointed Israeli citizens.
They have disappointed, pissed off and angered Israel's allies.
They are pissing off neighbour states.
The Israeli government and the IDF have created a broken nation of traumatised people.

Right next door.

I fear that Israel will become a failed state.Sad

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AnnieSnap · 04/04/2024 22:13

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 20:50

Israel is at war. It has a name and everything!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war

Oh, well if Wikipedia calls it that . . . 🙄

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 22:06

Right so Israel is not going to become a 'failed state' not is is it fragile.

We have a situation where I believe Benjamin Netanayahu is under significant political pressure internally (Israel is a democracy) and I think it is legitimate to speculate there may be an early election. I think there are questions Israelis are asking about how October 7th was allowed to happen and the current hostage situation (have they been foegotten?).

It is likely we will see a recalibrarion of the Israeli response to the October 7th attacks due to international pressure. It is likely Israel will still prosecute the war though there may be changes in tactics. I think Israel will have to be more transparent about its war aims and how the current military strategy is meant to achieve these aims.

There is a lot of talk about international law but international law is very much a complex beast and is actually reliant on sovereign nations recognising its existence. We await to see what advice individual states are given about the law by their lawyers. I am kind of guessing Hamas did not consult any of their lawyers before ordering the October 7th attacks and I am again kind of guessing holding and sexually assaulting hostages might break some kind of international law but who knows I am not a lawyer)

Israel long term will be safe, hopefully prosperous state that will be a home to the Jewsish people as well as others. There is no prospect of the international community viewing it as failed state such as Afghanistan. Israel will continue to be a liberal democracy surrounded by states wishing it's failure but I am sorry bit won't fail.

quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2024 21:45

Probably farrow and ball, this is Mumsnet.

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 21:36

quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2024 21:34

This does not give a clue to skin tone, is there some sort of Dulux chart you're consulting?

Thank you, quite. I was wondering if they had a paint chart going!

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 21:36

MCOut · 04/04/2024 21:22

You did many times. Iraqi and Spanish heritage but if you’re now saying that’s incorrect then Talk guidelines stipulate I should believe you. Your narrative remains distasteful. Very Israel v the uncivilised others.

I do not have Spanish Heritage. I have four Grandparents who were Sicilian, Iraqi, Egyptian and Lebanese. All of which are nationalities where people come in a wide range of skin tones. I have never mentioned what colour my skin is as far as I am aware.

quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2024 21:34

MCOut · 04/04/2024 21:22

You did many times. Iraqi and Spanish heritage but if you’re now saying that’s incorrect then Talk guidelines stipulate I should believe you. Your narrative remains distasteful. Very Israel v the uncivilised others.

This does not give a clue to skin tone, is there some sort of Dulux chart you're consulting?

MCOut · 04/04/2024 21:22

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 19:05

How do you know what colour I am? I don't think I have ever mentioned it.

You did many times. Iraqi and Spanish heritage but if you’re now saying that’s incorrect then Talk guidelines stipulate I should believe you. Your narrative remains distasteful. Very Israel v the uncivilised others.

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 21:21

Well Israel does have nuclear weapons for its defence. I guess Kirkwood be large states that it is worried about. Anyway there is little information on there nuclear capabaility.

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 21:19

@TooBigForMyBoots

the previous answer was sarcasm but does indicate how seriously Israel takes its existence as a state. The US in reality would never leave Israel defenceless and there has been absolutely no suggestion of that.

Scirocco · 04/04/2024 21:19

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 21:15

@TooBigForMyBoots

good question how many nuclear weapons does Israel have! I guess if they didn't have conventional weapons they could always rely on those?

Oh yay, nuclear war. What a wonderful back-up plan to consider so casually. 🤦🏻‍♀️

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 21:15

@TooBigForMyBoots

good question how many nuclear weapons does Israel have! I guess if they didn't have conventional weapons they could always rely on those?

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 21:13

@LemonyTicket

yes. All major news outlets report this is a war. A conflict between Israel and Hamas.

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 20:50

AnnieSnap · 04/04/2024 20:42

Just Israel and Russia. Israel isn’t at war, it is slaughtering innocent people due to terrorists attacking them from their country. Did the UK bomb the hell out of Ireland due to the attacks from the IRA? No, of course not!

Israel is at war. It has a name and everything!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war

Israel–Hamas war - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 20:49

TooBigForMyBoots · 04/04/2024 20:14

Do you think Israel could survive if the USA stop supporting it @mids2019?

My take:

Israel survives very well on it's own, it has a very robust economy. What it can't cope with is the cost of wars - generally wars it does not start but has no choice but to fight.

Beyond that, the cost of daily defence is extremely high. It probably could not sustain the astronomical cost of maintaining it's iron dome. Over the course of a bad week, the anti-missile defence system might cost something like $100m a month just to stop the constant fire at it hitting it's cities.

So without the ability to do that, it would be left with a choice of either letting it's people be killed or a full blown attack. It would probably need to wipe out Palestine for it's survival. Which I am sure you will say it wants to do or is already doing, but if it wanted to do that it already would have. It has had the means, motive and opportunity for decades.

Iran and other unpleasant players would likely smell blood and join in the attacks on Israel more openly, as would Hezbollah, and perhaps other places. There would be a full scale war, likely horrific bloodshed, and like Britain and the US would be involved as they understand how essential it is for global security to prevent Iran's foothold.

It would be a complete disaster.

That's my opinion only, but I'd imagine the US and UK have a similar take otherwise they would not keep supporting Israel to defend itself.

AnnieSnap · 04/04/2024 20:42

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 14:57

This is interesting AnnieSnap.

Do Iran, North Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia "oppress and kill people without compunction" that they are in active conflict with - or do they do it to their own actual citizens whilst not in an active conflict?

So, for example, are all countries at war a Pariah state? Or just Israel?

Just Israel and Russia. Israel isn’t at war, it is slaughtering innocent people due to terrorists attacking them from their country. Did the UK bomb the hell out of Ireland due to the attacks from the IRA? No, of course not!

TooBigForMyBoots · 04/04/2024 20:14

Do you think Israel could survive if the USA stop supporting it @mids2019?

OP posts:
Sussurations · 04/04/2024 19:36

AnnieSnap · 04/04/2024 14:45

Iran, North Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia. The criteria is that they oppress and kill people without compunction. In Israel’s case, they go further and are bombing and starving an other nation to death.

Incisive geopolitical insight!

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 19:08

is Israel heading to being a failed state as most people would recognise the term. No.

(Unless we put the US and UK in that bracket)

Is Israel involved in a conflict where there is a large civilian death toll. Yes.

Are people concerned about aid to civilians in Gaza. Yes.

Will Israel possibly get new leadership as democracy. Yes.

Does Israel have a bright future? On the whole yes. There are plenty of economic ties to the global community as well as political and military support.

There is disagreement between the US and Israel about this war but the US despite its frustration will never allow the destruction of the state through lack of support.

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 19:05

MCOut · 04/04/2024 15:58

Please. B I will never apologise for when I think that is the case, and A I never said they were lying, I said they conveniently left out that they are also white. It’s a pet peeve of mine people conveniently rolling out brown as and when they’re called out.

How do you know what colour I am? I don't think I have ever mentioned it.

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 19:04

Scirocco · 04/04/2024 15:44

A bit off topic, but does anyone know when the last Egyptian royalty were referred to as pharaohs?

What are you implying here? Are you also going in with the calling me a liar?

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 19:01

MCOut · 04/04/2024 15:43

That poster is well aware that they are never going to be seen in the same way that Arabs who are considered poc and not white are seen. They are perfectly happy to weaponise that.

Can you explain what you are saying here please?

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 19:00

TextureSeeker · 04/04/2024 16:03

Should she also add the bit about what Israel does to Palestinian demonstrators?

https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/06/13/israel-apparent-war-crimes-gaza

HER: I am off to write an article on what Israel does to Palestinian Demonstrators
ME: Maybe include what Hamas does to Palestinian Demonstrators
YOU: Should she also include what Israel does to Palestinian Demonstrators

Ok!

😂

mids2019 · 04/04/2024 18:55

@LemonyTicket

Interesting posts and I think we should all be grateful for freedom. Unfortunately freedoms is never free.

I think it fits a narrative to call Israel a failed state (even though it patently is not) as as you allude to Israel is a democracy and conforms to that ideal though in a regional environment that doesn't welcome it. Israel is literally surrounded by totalitarian regimes which are hostile to its existence including Hamas who wish the state not to exist and quite obviously want to destroy its people.

there are values of liberty we is the 'west' share with Israel but the ideal of democracy and liberal values is something that should be aspired to not denigrated with conflating the idea of liberal democracy with colonization.

is real is not a filed state and no one can perceive of it at least here in the UK as being one. Then people who benefit from Israel being portrayed as a 'failed state' are such players as Iran, Hamas, ISIS etc. so why would anyone in the UK wish to bring this up?

esta2024 · 04/04/2024 17:53

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 17:33

I am not Israeli, so this has absolutely nothing to do with what I just said and your response completely ignores my point.

However, as you made it, Israel is a multicultural, democratic society but unfortunately unlike Singapore it has always had people on all sides trying to wipe it from existence. Although that is thankfully lessening as it's neighbours move forwards.

Those people wanted to do wipe it from existence because it was Jewish. Those people objected to it's existence because it was Jewish. And not because they wanted "one united people, regardless of race, language or religion, to build a democratic society based on justice and equality". No, they wanted to wipe it from existence because they DIDN'T want those things. They wanted Islamic land ruled for Islam and only that. That was very clearly and openly stated and still is.

The inhabitants of modern Israel arrived back to it's sanctuary in majority due to extreme anti Jewish sentiment in it's surrounding countries. It is not a demonstration of a wish for an exclusive society. It is a demonstration of the necessity of one. My family, for example, in Iraq alone faced Jewish homes being burned down, business confiscated, being banned from doing their jobs, street lynchings of Jews, the Iraqi version of "Hitler Youth" parading the streets and throwing stones at them or spitting, nightly broadcasts of Nazi propaganda translated especially into Arabic and ultimately "zionism" being declared a crime punishable by several years imprisonment and basically every Jew being branded a Zionist. It was batshit crazy!

They didn't go to Israel, they went to Britain, but many did go to Israel because it was the only place there was where Jews would not be ruled over by people who hated them and actively discriminated against them. They were not allowed to live as "one united people, regardless of race, language or religion, to build a democratic society based on justice and equality". In fact, in countries where they had a presence for 2600 years, they were completely wiped from existence and stripped of all their property and nationality.

Then when they got their country, and freedom to live as Jews with Jewish beliefs and Jewish culture and the freedom to form their own government and a country in which they would not be treated as imposters or subordinates, they had the good grace to welcome a population that was 30% NOT Jewish, and unlike their compadres they gave those people equality under law and made them their neighbours. Jews have been ethnically cleansed out of every Arab country more or less.

All that said, none of it would have ever happened if people had allowed them to live as you are fortunate to live in Singapore, equal, and as valuable as those who had a "majority", but that wasn't the choice they were given. Or indeed if other people had not conquered their lands and decided to kill them, kick them out.

This is a classic reversal of reality really. Every country surrounding is a "Muslim" country. That is the only reason a Jewish country is needed. If every surrounding country were a Singapore style democracy where all citizens were equal and Jews were and always had been considered equal and completely valued members of society, then they would not need their own place.

Jews didn't invent the world, and they don't control what every other country does. They have a right to their home, and a right for them to be equals in it. And a right to defend it from people who hate them and wish to deny them their right to life, and to flourish with self determination.

Every country surrounding Singapore is also a Muslim country. It was also kicked out of the federation of Malaysia two years after it joined because it didn't want to be a country for the malays (malaysia is still a Muslim country where chinese people are not allowed to own their own businesses and where there are quotas on their admissions to universities). Singapore obviously didn't want that so it rebelled and there were racial riots and long story short, Singapore was kicked out and that was when this pledge was written. Singapore was wholly unprepared for this, joining Malaysia had been a condition of independence from the British and it had no natural resources or food and was dependent on Malaysia for pretty much all water and food. In the early days of its independence, there were even bombing attacks from Indonesia... Singapore could have chosen to not embrace the values of multiculturalism. Even today in Singapore there are ethnic quotas in government housing (where majority of the population lives) so that no ghettos are formed. EID, Diwali, Christmas and Chinese New year are all public holidays and we have four national languages. It is a crime to criticise each other's religion. We speak English as a first language so that we can all communicate with each other. Living together in harmony isn't a given, you have to work at it. Saying its too hard/ the other side is horrible isn't really a good excuse.

I am not denying israel has far more hostile neighbours but there are many ways to solve a problem and going all hard right Jewish nationalist isn't that.
There is much more israel can do to integrate its Arab minority.

LemonyTicket · 04/04/2024 17:33

esta2024 · 04/04/2024 15:21

Thats the difference between Singapore and Israel.

Singapore sees itself as a country for all its inhabitants, regardless of race, language and religion, even though the proportion of ethnically chinese citizen is the same as the proportion of Jewish people in Israel- 70%. But it would never call itself a Chinese State. Singapore school children recite daily:
We, the citizens of Singapore, pledge ourselves as one united people, regardless of race, language or religion, to build a democratic society based on justice and equality so as to achieve happiness, prosperity and progress for our nation."

Israel sees itself as a Jewish state but 30% of its inhabitants are not Jewish. This is a problem in a sense that while it was set up to be a Jewish state, this narrative is not conductive to peace in such a volatile region. I am not saying i am against the concept of a Jewish state. But it can be a barrier if the other people see themselves as being oppressed by the Jewish majority or feel that their own interests are not respected.

But thats the thing- nation states are separate from ethnoreligions. Or at least successful nation states should be. The inability to separate the two or at least reconcile the two is problematic for those who do not regard themselves as part of the ethnoreligion.

Blackface is mocking the appearance of black people .Rejecting zionism can be antisemitic if you criticise zionism but sympathise with other movements of ethnocentric self determination. There are definitely people like that, i am not condoning that.

But like i said before, i separate criticism of the country from criticism of an entire people/culture. the latter is definitely not ok.

Edited

I am not Israeli, so this has absolutely nothing to do with what I just said and your response completely ignores my point.

However, as you made it, Israel is a multicultural, democratic society but unfortunately unlike Singapore it has always had people on all sides trying to wipe it from existence. Although that is thankfully lessening as it's neighbours move forwards.

Those people wanted to do wipe it from existence because it was Jewish. Those people objected to it's existence because it was Jewish. And not because they wanted "one united people, regardless of race, language or religion, to build a democratic society based on justice and equality". No, they wanted to wipe it from existence because they DIDN'T want those things. They wanted Islamic land ruled for Islam and only that. That was very clearly and openly stated and still is.

The inhabitants of modern Israel arrived back to it's sanctuary in majority due to extreme anti Jewish sentiment in it's surrounding countries. It is not a demonstration of a wish for an exclusive society. It is a demonstration of the necessity of one. My family, for example, in Iraq alone faced Jewish homes being burned down, business confiscated, being banned from doing their jobs, street lynchings of Jews, the Iraqi version of "Hitler Youth" parading the streets and throwing stones at them or spitting, nightly broadcasts of Nazi propaganda translated especially into Arabic and ultimately "zionism" being declared a crime punishable by several years imprisonment and basically every Jew being branded a Zionist. It was batshit crazy!

They didn't go to Israel, they went to Britain, but many did go to Israel because it was the only place there was where Jews would not be ruled over by people who hated them and actively discriminated against them. They were not allowed to live as "one united people, regardless of race, language or religion, to build a democratic society based on justice and equality". In fact, in countries where they had a presence for 2600 years, they were completely wiped from existence and stripped of all their property and nationality.

Then when they got their country, and freedom to live as Jews with Jewish beliefs and Jewish culture and the freedom to form their own government and a country in which they would not be treated as imposters or subordinates, they had the good grace to welcome a population that was 30% NOT Jewish, and unlike their compadres they gave those people equality under law and made them their neighbours. Jews have been ethnically cleansed out of every Arab country more or less.

All that said, none of it would have ever happened if people had allowed them to live as you are fortunate to live in Singapore, equal, and as valuable as those who had a "majority", but that wasn't the choice they were given. Or indeed if other people had not conquered their lands and decided to kill them, kick them out.

This is a classic reversal of reality really. Every country surrounding is a "Muslim" country. That is the only reason a Jewish country is needed. If every surrounding country were a Singapore style democracy where all citizens were equal and Jews were and always had been considered equal and completely valued members of society, then they would not need their own place.

Jews didn't invent the world, and they don't control what every other country does. They have a right to their home, and a right for them to be equals in it. And a right to defend it from people who hate them and wish to deny them their right to life, and to flourish with self determination.

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